If you look at all the new house polls out today, and then check were each race sits on the RCP spectrum, we see that RCP is going to be moving the house very much towards the GOP sometime today or tomorrow, once all those polls are processed.

Looks like AZ1, AZ5, CO3, will go from toss up to lean GOP

Looks like CA47 will go from likely dem to toss up

If my math is right that means the Dems will drop to 193 (-1) seats safe or leaning, the GOP will rise to 209 (+3) safe or leaning. An amazing -16 seat deficit.  The toss ups will be 33, almost all Dem incumbents.

No wonder everyone agree the House is probably lost.

What happens when a person has been fed a decade of hyperventilating lies about the end of the world at the hands of greedy humankind, and they then realize the ‘good guys’ (all those lefty white-knights – in their own minds) are losing support from that same greedy humankind? They take matters into your own hands, naturally. That lefty white-knight heeds the panicked calls to action from leftist snake oil salespeople – and acts:

A radical enviornmentalist who took three hostages at the Discovery Channel headquarters while wearing what police may be explosives was shot and killed by officers, police said.

…

In a rambling manifesto on Lee’s website, believed to have been written by Lee, the writer rails against “disgusting human babies,” “parasitic infants,” and says people should “disassemble civilization.” The manifesto also calls on Discovery to “broadcast to the world their commitment to save the planet.”

The manifesto is a must read, at a minimum to see into the warped mind of a radical left wing puppet. The Al Gore’s of the world have exaggerated so much (due to their core ignorance of real science and math) it is no surprise people have succumbed to the conclusion it is now or never (as we saw here).

Humanity is a product of nature (especially true if you agree with the sciences of biology and genetics, and the evidence of evolution). The world of nature is dynamic and brutal. This planet has experienced much warmer periods in Medieval and Roman times, much higher CO2 levels while life flourished and can produce massive destruction and death as seen in hurricanes, tsunamis and earth quakes. We are ants compared to mother nature’s forces.

But to the far left, we are an outsized evil force, and they are God’s gift to nature. An army of holier-than-all-humankind types who are now seeing something even more horrible: liberal governments and policies starting to be rejected. Worse, the scriptures of eco-greens are being shown by real science to be flawed and simple minded. Here is but a small sampling of stories that indicate the fall of the eco-green credibility in the public’s eye.

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Update: Pat Caddell adds his voice too:

“President Obama’s undoing may be his disingenuousness,” Caddell says. After campaigning for post-partisanship, Obama, he observes, has lurched without pause to the left. “You can’t get this far from what you promised,” Caddell says, “especially when people invest in hope — you must understand that obligation. The killer in American politics is disappointment. When you are elected on expectations, and you fail to meet them, your decline steepens.”

Update: Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball joins the choir.

Update: Sean Trende at RCP puts the wave’s potential damage at 60-90 Democrat seats lost.

In reality, barring some major and dramatic turnaround in the political landscape, the 50 seat GOP wave has now in many ways moved closer to the floor for Democratic losses. With the economy continuing to flounder and with fewer than 60 days until Election Day, the potential for a once-in-a-century type of wave that would lead to GOP gains in the 60-90 seat range is increasing.

The latest Gallup generic ballot tracking finds that, among registered voters, Republicans are leading by ten points, 51 percent to 41 percent. Three of the four highest leads for the GOP since Gallup began tracking the generic ballot in 1942 have been measured in the past month alone (and Republicans won the House seven times during those intervening years, with as many as 246 seats which would be a 68 seat pickup today).

Why am I not surprised? - end update

The Public Policy Polling (PPP) group is coming out with their sample of Ohio elections today, but as a precursor they published another one of those ‘canary in a coal mine’ numbers which are signaling a route of the Democrats come November:

… by a 50-42 margin voters there [Ohio] say they’d rather have George W. Bush in the White House right now than Barack Obama.

…

A couple months ago I thought the Pennsylvanias and Missouris and Ohios of the world were the biggest battlegrounds for 2010 but when you see numbers like this it makes you think it’s probably actually the Californias and the Wisconsins and the Washingtons.

(H/T Daily Mail). That is a stunning reversal of fortune for the Democrat party. If they have lost the bell weathers of PA, OH and MO this November’s elections will be amazing.

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If there is any doubt that the political tsunami is large, deep and able to consume anyone the Alaska Senate GOP primary is a wake up call. How can big-government dems think they could survive when this wave is taking out GOP incumbents at an incredible rate. Today the latest victim of the Political Industrial Complex succumbed:

Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski conceded her Senate primary race Tuesday to a political newcomer backed by former Alaska governor and vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.

Murkowski made the concession speech Tuesday night, a full week after the primary.

Good for Murkowski, who was bestowed her seat by her father in a unforgivable moment of nepotism. I am sure Lisa Murkowski is a good person, but she needed to earn the voters’ support. She almost made it, but fell short. She can try again – my old school mate Begich is right for the picking in a few years. And this time she can earn it. Her career is not over.

But understand something DC. We don’t come to praise DC, we come to put it back in its constitutionally defined BOX! All those Dems who are in denial about their future – take notice. The wave is so high it is taking out GOP incumbents – and as many Dems as it can wash out to sea.

The post title is a completely unrelated quote from a Harry Potter movie (The Goblet of Fire) to lead into my take on the President’s address to the nation tonight. Its all I could think of to convey my mixed reaction to the President’s address. An address that started strong, and then droned on into oblivion.

For the first few minutes it seemed “President” Obama had finally arrived. As the nation’s leader he did an excellent job of reviewing the war on Iraq, the sacrifices and costs, the disagreements, but also the opportunity all that has brought us to the brink to realizing. He recognized the potential for Iraq and the world that our blood and treasure – and that of our allies – bought humanity. Even his slightly wooden delivery seemed to honor the importance of this historic turning point and moment. The combined hope for Iraq and the West was there for him to take hold of and expand upon.

Then ‘professor’ Obama decided to come out and the entire mood was lost. Obama began to get too lofty, too preachy, too filled with public relations speak. Not sure how he did it, but by the time he was moaning about the trillion dollars spent on bringing Iraq to this magical moment (without acknowledging his administration’s spending twice that much and failing to fix our own economy) the inspiration was gone. We reached for the cable remote as he babbled on about vague, Kumbahya-like visions of world harmony not achievable under past administrations, but here but for the luck of Obama. When he started to congratulate himself for meeting his campaign promises, he lost the nation. This was not about the future of Iraq, it was about candidate Obama’s promises. Ugh.

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The Gallup poll that came out yesterday showing a historic lead for the GOP in the generic ballot test is not the only indication that the Democrats are in the cross hairs of the American public. In fact, sitting next to a commentary by Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight fame was an interesting graph, which I will get to in a moment. Silver leans towards the Democrat side (and is quite open about it). Therefore his NY Times commentary in the Gallup has a touch of denial that things are not yet all that bad. His observations are solid, yet laced with a tenor that indicates the reality has not sunk in:

The poll is probably an outlier of sorts, by which I mean that were you to take the exact same survey and put it into the field again — but interview 1,450 different registered voters, instead of the ones Gallup happened to survey — you would not likely find the G.O.P. with as large as a 10-point advantage.

Actually, given the 5 week long trend towards the GOP this latest poll may also just be picking up the electorate solidifying its rejection of DC Democrats. Silver goes on to rightfully note that in the beginning of summer, the surprising and rare +5% lead for the GOP could be seen as an outlier:

This is not the situation the Democrats’ faced earlier this summer, when the generic ballot was closer to even. Back then, a 5-point Republican lead on the generic ballot would have been pretty big news; now, it seems to be the new normal.

I completely understand a pollster’s hesitation to jump to conclusion based on a single poll. But as I noted in the comments, the history of the Gallup poll over the summer indicates a trend towards the GOP – not an outlier. But even more so, look at the top 12 senate races likely to switch parties in Silver’s own prediction models:

Notice a trend here? It is important to realize these rankings are the results of many polls and factors, not just one poll. So does Silver not see the writing on the wall? Of those races ranked as having a greater than 75% chance of switching, all 6 are Democrat seats. Of the top 12 seats listed as possible party take overs, all but 1 is Democrat held. AR, WA, WI, CA and NV represent long term, powerful Democrat incumbents, not normally the kind of pol fighting for their careers. The only GOP seat in the mix is an open seat.

Is this not a clear indicator that Americans from every corner of the country are ready (and able) to hand the Democrats their heads? What would this chart look like when Scott Brown was heading to his surprise victory in the MA special senate election? Would the mix have been more even in the top 12 back then? Wouldn’t this kind of prediction have been considered absolutely insane back then? How many canaries do the Democrats and their followers need to see dead or dying to wake up?

Silver also notes that the likely voter version of the latest Gallup poll would show a +14% lead for the GOP! A position I think is probably more accurate, and more devastating. Watch the left freak out now.

Never has Gallup’s congressional generic poll shown such a large lead for the GOP:

Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP’s largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.

Being a poll of registered voters, not the typically more GOP-leaning likely voters, means that the GOP lead for congress is even larger than this historic 10% level implies. The likely voter model would have to take into account the GOP’s edge in enthusiasm (i.e., who is going to actually go out and vote):

Republicans are now twice as likely as Democrats to be “very” enthusiastic about voting [50-25%], and now hold — by one point — the largest such advantage of the year.

That 25% lead in enthusiasm is incredible, and also must be near all-time historic highs. As I predicted in early August, it will be getting much bleaker for democrats in the coming weeks, as Gallup (and other pollsters) move from polls of ‘adults‘ and ‘registered voters‘ to the ‘likely voter‘ models:

Republicans usually turn out in higher numbers in midterm elections than do Democrats, and Gallup’s likely voter modeling in the final weeks of an election typically reflects a larger GOP advantage than is evident among registered voters. The wide enthusiasm gaps in the GOP’s favor so far this year certainly suggest that this scenario may well play itself out again this November.

…

Republicans’ presumed turnout advantage, combined with their current 10-point registered-voter lead, suggests the potential for a major “wave” election in which the Republicans gain a large number of seats from the Democrats and in the process take back control of the House. One cautionary note: Democrats moved ahead in Gallup’s generic ballot for several weeks earlier this summer, showing that change is possible between now and Election Day.

Here is how I interpreted the strange, short period of Democrats polling in the lead this summer that Gallup notes in caution:

This frustration [with] the deaf political industrial complex is resulting in a major tuning out of politics while people salvage what they can from their summer vacations. I suspect a major portion of the electorate is no longer accessible to pollsters, the very same portion ready to vote the bums out en masse.

That is not to say these angry voters will not reengage this year. These people will be back in the fall with a vengeance, and probably back in the polls as early as mid September (once the kids are back into the groove of school).

In this last week of Wreckovery Summer, it seems the frustrated voter may be engaging sooner than I thought. Even Gallup is now calling this a ‘wave’ election year. And as I have said for months now, the prime difference between 1994 and 2010 is the economic back drop to the liberal overreaching in Congress. In 1994 the economy was accelerating towards one of its peak periods in history. That back drop attenuated the backlash of voters against the liberal/progressive policies attempted under Bill Clinton. This time around, President Obama has no such economic cushion. And he is no Bill Clinton either.

This time around, 1994 is going to seem like a fond memory for the Democrat Party.

Update: Allahpundit at Hot Air starts to come around to the idea the GOP may not just take control of the House, they may decimate the Democrat caucus:

I keep thinking that people like Mark Halperin are crazy to believe that Republicans could pick up as many as 60 seats. Then I see generic-ballot polls like this don’t know what to think. Sky’s the limit?

…

To put this in perspective, until this month, the biggest lead the GOP had held in the history of Gallup’s polling was … five points.

So what is the likely voter model showing – a 12-15% lead for the GOP? Pollster.com notes that these numbers already portend something on the order of a 50 seat gain for the GOP, or higher:

So while the “unprecedented 10-point lead” reported by Gallup probably exaggerates the Republican lead, any result showing a net Republican advantage on the so-called generic ballot is bad news for Democrats. Bafumi and his colleagues estimated their 50-seat gain for the Republicans assuming a two-point advantage for Republicans on the generic ballot, which they project will widen to a six-point lead by November. If the Republican lead on the generic ballot is already that wide (or close), their projection for the Democrats would worsen.

Pollster.com is already showing a 5 point lead for the GOP, which would equate to a helluva lot more than 50 seat pick up. Politico is calling it a Tidal Wave year. As I noted recently, we are just now seeing the  rising tip of the tsunami.

Wow – I was not expecting to see this so soon. Rasmussen has WV’s senate seat race all of a sudden extremely tight with the Democrat Manchin getting 48% and GOP contender Raese getting 42%. With a MoE of +/- 4.5% that is basically a statistical tie. Worse for the Dems is the fact Manchin was 16% ahead a month ago. If that is a trend line Manchin will be behind by mid September. That would put 12 Dem Senate seats in play this year (DE, PA, WV, IL, IN, WI, ND, AR, CO, NV, CA, WA)  - more than enough margin for the GOP in a wave to take control. If CT also slid into contention, then it would indicate the House is already gone and the Senate is on the brink (if not also gone).

Update: Ed Morrissey correctly notes the confidence breaker this has to be to Democrats who wondered where their Recovery Summer went:

Seventy percent of independents approve of Manchin’s performance as governor, but if they send him to Washington, he won’t be in charge of the agenda. Only 15% of independents approve of Obama’s performance, while 78% of them strongly disapprove. Those voters won’t be anxious to send Manchin to the Senate to enable more of the Obama-Nancy Pelosi- Harry Reid agenda. That 51% rating from before the primary may start looking pretty tasty to Manchin, and there’s now a strong possibility that the people of West Virginia may leave Manchin in the job they apparently want him to keep. This race is far from over.

Ed is correct in giving credit to the average WV voter for understanding a vote for Manchin is a license for Obama and Pelosi (I doubt Reid survives) to further destroy our economy and way of life. Everyone is starting to see the November election as the last chance to apply the 2×4 across the head of DC (and NY and San Fran, …). Democrats have refused to listen – even to their left of center base (half their voters). America has succumbed to the conclusion it is better to send fresh GOP faces to DC than to continue to pretend Democrats will temper their liberal whackiness come January.

In fact, if the Dems even get a hint of cheating death, the next two years will make the last two look like a cake walk. We all know the Dems will take even the slightest win as carte blanche to go farther left, even faster. Too much is at stake this November for nuance and benefit of the doubt. Even if you are a conservative member of the ‘big government’ party, you are on the wrong side in 2010.

You are unemployed and cannot make your payments on your house loan. So what does brain trust in DC come out with as a solution to your dilemma?

The administration will begin a Federal Housing Authority refinancing effort to help borrowers who are struggling to pay their mortgages, and will start an emergency homeowners’ loan program for unemployed borrowers so they can stay in their homes, Donovan said.

Who the heck would qualify for any size loan WITHOUT A JOB!? Not with my tax money they won’t.  If I wanted to throw my money down the tiolet I can do it myself.

Got one of those email chains from a friend with a supposed quote from Ben Stein. As the email suggest, it doesn’t matter were the statement comes from, it distills down the essence of what is wrong in DC and why there will be some serious house cleaning come November:

“Fathom the odd hypocrisy that Obama wants every citizen to prove they are insured, but people don’t have to prove they are citizens”

It will soon be a crime not to be paying for mandatory health care. But being in this country illegally is not a crime??? With that kind of incoherence, I would not trust this gang with watching grass grow (they might hurt themselves or someone else).

Today’s must-read, maybe even the must-read of the entire election cycle, is by Ross Douthat at the NY Times (H/T RCP). The reason is it is a must read is because somebody finally understood what the Tea Party movement is all about, and writes about it with wondrous clarity (demonstrating Douthat’s own skill as a writer):

But after spending my Saturday at Beck’s “Restoring Honor” rally on the Washington Mall, I’m beginning to think that I underestimated the man.

…

Instead, Beck served up something considerably stranger. This was a tent revival crossed with a pep rally intertwined with a history lecture married to a U.S.O. telethon — and that was just in the first hour.

There was piety — endless piety, as speaker after speaker demanded that Americans rededicate themselves to God. There was patriotism: fund- raising for children of slain Special Forces vets, paeans to military heroism (delivered by Sarah Palin, among others), encomiums to the founding fathers. There was an awards ceremony on the theme of “Faith, Hope and Charity,” in which community-service prizes were handed out to a black minister, a Mormon businessman and the St. Louis Cardinals’ Albert Pujols. And since this was (as you may have heard) the anniversary of the “I Have a Dream” speech, there was a long tribute to Martin Luther King Jr.

…

But one could also call the day a strange, unlooked-for fulfillment of King’s prophecies: 47 years after the “I Have a Dream” speech, here were tens of thousands of white conservatives roaring their approval of its author.

…

It was a long festival of affirmation for middle-class white Christians — square, earnest, patriotic and religious.

It was a celebration of America’s Main Street, its right-of-center core. It is the rejection of big government and the Politvcial Industrial Complex that was created in its dark shadow. It was a reawakening of We The People. It is also the remergence of the American ‘can do’ attitude – this time aimed at dismantling the defunct and bloated federal bureaucracy which has proven itself unworthy of limitless stewardship (a.k.a. being the national nanny). It is the greenest of green shoots, ready to take out the choking weeds of progressive liberalism and replace them with the millions of individual lights. The Shining City on The Hill is about to see a revival.

If the Democrats had not been so stubborn towards across the board tax cuts, we probably would not be in this extended recession. Tax cuts ALWAYS spur economic growth and job creation, as people who have money and survive the down turn decide to take a gamble on a new business idea. Presidents Reagan, Kennedy and Bush all proved this. Yet the modern progressive Democrat is so knee-jerk anti-business (probably due to too much prime time network TV growing up) that they would only consider tax cuts at gun point – which is why only now, as they face wide-spread rejection at the polls, Dems are finally open to extending the Bush tax cuts due to end in January.

The final chapter on Keynesian economics has been written, because the final chapter is all about how this trickle down poverty fantasy of the far is an abject failure. Keynesian economics simply drags out the pain of downturns and wastes trillions of dollars of hard earned tax money. It is now proven to only produce massive debt and wide-spread economic devastation:

Government anti-poverty programs that have grown to meet the needs of recession victims now serve a record one in six Americans and are continuing to expand.

More than 50 million Americans are on Medicaid, the federal-state program aimed principally at the poor, a survey of state data by USA TODAY shows. That’s up at least 17% since the recession began in December 2007.

That is the claim to fame of Obama-Reid-Pelosi economic policies. Just look at the charts I showed last week on the Emergency Unemployment rolls, and how they grew by over a million in July ALONE!  (click to enlarge).

This was not Bush’ fault – remember, he had a Democrat Congress for two years, when the recession actually began, and a GOP Congress that had become lazy and power-drunk before that. This was the fault of the Democrats. They wasted the last two years.

In an election year that is driven by a near universal belief by the American people that DC’s politicians are too aloof, not listening to them and do not care, the worst answer a young president can give is:

Obama, speaking with NBC Nightly News anchor Brian Williams on Sunday afternoon, was equally dismissive of conservative talk show host Glenn Beck – saying he didn’t watch the Fox host’s Saturday rally in Washington but wasn’t surprised that Beck was able to “stir up” people during uncertain economic times.

…

Obama, who just returned from a long vacation on Martha’s Vineyard said he didn’t watch Glenn Beck’s massive rally at the Lincoln Memorial on Saturday, adding that he was focused on the long-term, not on the “Nightly News.”

In other words, our President is not listening or paying attention again. You’d think even a dim bulb would have figured out by now to at least pretend to understand, feel the pain, regurgitate the concerns. Bill Clinton he is not.

Mr Obama acts as if the nation is out to get him. If it is, it’s his own fault since he had it full square behind him when he was elected. He is the one that made a series of misreads, missteps and mistakes. He reacts like this is campaign time, which simply under scores the now obvious – the man was not ready to be an executive in charge of a large organization. He does not understand how it works. And he is annoyed reality is not behaving as he expected when he was fantasizing about being President of the United States. He better begin listening to the people, or he will be a horrible one term president and his party will have been decimated in the process.

Update: My favorite Palin line was this: “I must assume that you too know that we must not fundamentally transform America as some would want. We must restore America and restore her honor!” That will be the rallying cry for this fall. How any moron on the left could criticize Palin as she recounted the sacrifice of those 4 Navy Seal in 2005 is beyond me. The left has become the antithesis of American honor and tolerance. Their insecurity driven hate has made them bitter and bleak. They have imploded due to their own fear driven hate – all because they cannot accept honorable and selfless opposition.

We did not want or need transformational change. We did not want a far left country. And now we have to come together to put back together what the Democrats destroyed. BTW, Doc Zero at Hot Air also has a good take on this weekend’s events.

Update: Reader Lurker9876 noted some very similar posts/articles out today. One is from Pajama’s Media which mirrors my own assessment the left is just reinforcing the fact they are out of touch and need to be removed from power. The other is surprisingly from the AP, who rings the warning bell about November in a very balanced way. Sarah Palin’s remarks (and video) are up on her Facebook page as well. From what I saw of the Sunday morning ‘news’ shows the left is in full panic mode, trying to save the Dems from destruction. Too late for that - end update

I missed the big Beck brouhaha down on the mall due to a long scheduled family outing. Looks like he and Sarah Palin attracted a huge crowd as usual (forget the CBS estimate of 87,000 – that was a huge underestimate). I have got to read transcripts or see video, because the handwringing and insults flying from the liberal media sources is clearly a sign of panic and mindless lashing out – and completely inaccurate.

This reaction to the rally is actually emphasizing what has been wrong in DC and with the far left for two years now. Beck’s rally and the people who follow him are NOT the issue in this election. I am not even a fan of Beck’s (I can take him in one month doses, after that his preachy schtick gets on my nerves). I probably agree with him on most things, though on details I will beg to differ. He is an alarmist and I demand proof before I go out and make accusations (something crazy adherence to the assumption of innocence until proven guilty).  But at his core he is well meaning and appears to be trying to do what is right. His followers are clearly good people of good will. He is not evil, that much is for certain.

Palin is even less of a problem for me. I actually find her straight and simple views quite refreshing. I like people who just say what they want without caveats or hidden trap doors they can reverse themselves through later. Her following is enormous and comes straight out of middle American families. She has proven the media is scared shitless of her and react with unfounded fear and loathing. It has never been a bad reflection on her, but on the idiots she intimidates.

With all this, the left is going berserk this weekend! Some claimed the civil rights movement has been highjacked – which is nonsense. The civil rights movement is as American as 4th of July, and no race, political party or political organization owns the rights to it (got that Al?). All I see is Beck and Palin screeds, from an event that was meant to be uplifting and about American core values and roots. You can disagree on points, but there is no reason to go nuts over the event.

Have we forgotten the tops issues here? Have we forgot about how the liberal economic stimulus fantasy crashed and burned, extending the recession and possibly leading to a 2nd downward dip? Did we forget about the mind boggling $2.5+ trillion dollars of record deficit spending since Obama, Reid and Pelosi have been in control? Have we forgotten the endless failures of liberal successes from health care to world peace?

Liberal media and pols who attacks Beck, Palin, Angle, Buck, Rand, etc on personal issues are just reminders of how vacuous and worn out the liberal progressive brain trust is. Attacking these people is not creating a single job (though it is surely aimed at saving a bunch of jobs for failed liberal politicians and their staff). It is not getting our economy on track, lowering our deficit or bringing world peace. It is a self-centered screed from a movement that screwed up when they finally got to try everything they ever believed in. Reality slapped them down, and now they are trying to slap down honest, well meaning Americans.

Who needs any better reason to throw them out of power this fall? They can waste their time whining about how life is unfair on their own nickel.

As the Obama-Reid-Pelosi economic policies hit their stride the horrid results are coming in:

The U.S. economy grew more sluggish than initially estimated in the second quarter, and corporate profits nearly dried up, further evidence that the recovery is losing steam.

Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, rose at an annualized seasonally adjusted rate of 1.6% from April to June, the Commerce Department said Friday.

Under the burden of unimaginable deficits and debt (Democrats will produce the same amount of debt it took this nation 225 years to build up in only 5 years given current budget projections), a failed stimulus approach, and the promise of crippling Obamacare costs (no more pretending it saves money!) it is not surprise the economic engine of this nation has stalled under the weight of socialist policies. An even worse indicator is the number of people on Extended Unemployment Compensation. Here is a chart showing the weekly number of Americans hanging onto this last life-line of unemployment assistance (click to enlarge):

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