Looks like Lynn Swann is going to probably win the Govenors race in PA this year, as long as he has no major gaffes. What little I have heard of Lynn Swann speaking impresses me immensely. And I think the African American community is finally beginning to accept the idea of being associated with the Republicans. Which is great for the party – we need new blood in my opinion.

So why am I so bullish so early? Well, because the polls are that good this early:

Our latest poll of the race for Pennsylvania governor shows Republican Lynn Swann, the former receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers, narrowly leading Democratic Governor Ed Rendell 45% to 43%.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of voters view Swann favorably; 47% view Rendell favorably.

Swann formally declared his candidacy just two weeks ago, on January 4. But he has enjoyed early success in securing endorsements from two of six regional caucuses in his quest for the party nomination. The Republican state Committee will endorse a candidate on February 11.

Rendell does much better against former Lt. Governor Bill Scranton III, leading 46% to 36%.

There is one Achilles Heel for incumbents – their record. Rendell’s is a mixed bag and he has been winning on his notoriety more than anything else. If Swann continues to fly ahead of Rendell in personal favorability I cannot see how Rendell recovers. He is well below the magic 50% mark in the head to head match ups. And heaven forbid he is forced to take a stand on the war in Iraq and the NSA issue. If he goes moderate to retain the center right voters he is doomed – the far left liberals will walk away. And of course the reverse is even worse.

Democrats are in a bind. Their BDS driven base want all out civil war. They want impeachment of Bush over having the NSA monitor terrorists overseas (what they do anyway) and pass the leads to the FBI (which they did not do pre 9-11 apparently). The liberals will demand to know where the democrats stand on that issue all on their own.