Jan 29 2006
Too Late To Act On Global Warming?
The Global Warming crowd is out wondering if we are reaching a point where we cannot stop the weather, and the Washington Post begins their coverage with a blatant lie:
Now that most scientists agree human activity is causing Earth to warm, the central debate has shifted to whether climate change is progressing so rapidly that, within decades, humans may be helpless to slow or reverse the trend.
Why the news media feels impelled to lie and reflect opinion verses reality on a subject is beyond me. But when I read the first setence and I know for fact it is garbage, I expect to see paragraph after paragraph of more garbage.
Most scientists agree the earth is warming. All of them in fact would agree. It has been warming since the Little Ice Age that lasted for 500 years beginning in the 1300’s or so.
But today’s Kyoto-ites have never presented on iota of scientific evidence the phenomena is driven by human kind, or life in general. The Sun is probably a much larger contributor to our weather than we are since the Sun could hold 332,776 Earth’s inside it. We inhabit a very thin layer on a very thin crust of the planet. And we are a small fraction of the biomass.
The fallacy of this entire piece is the concept we ever had the ability to change the weather. Some of this may have come from the good work done to repair the ozone hole by adjusting the use of a small amount of one class of chemicals. But there was a very clear and unambiguous chemical reaction that pointed to the ozone problem. The same cannot be said for CO2 levels and global warming.
For example, my guess is the deforestation is a larger factor than by-products of human activities. Earth has a massive bio-filter of plants and microbes that can clean the air. But if you eliminate the filter (trees, marshes, etc) obviously things change.
But scientists still cannot prove if the reduce the green house gases this phenomena is not actually driven by something deep down in the core. We may be seeing a possible increase in the internal heat of the planet. Or, as I mentioned, the Sun could be more active (it just completed on of its high activity cycles).
The Washington Post does itself and its readers an enormous disservice by inserting its scientific naivette into an important subject. But the scientific community is not helping itself either. They wonder if they we are reaching the point where we can stop the rain from falling? Hurricanes are very small storms on the scale of the planet. The devastation of Katrina I doubt affected .1% of the earth’s land mass (SWAG for sure). We could not stop Katrina, what makes these people think they have the knowledge and power to do something even larger? Is this the Earth’s thermostat?
While scientists remain uncertain when such a point might occur, many say it is urgent that policymakers cut global carbon dioxide emissions in half over the next 50 years or risk the triggering of changes that would be irreversible.
If these people are positive this is the answer, the better be able to prove it. And so far they cannot and admit they cannot. In fact, the have proved this happens all the time, many times, and many times without humans involved:
Scientists who read the history of Earth’s climate in ancient sediments, ice cores and fossils find clear signs that it has shifted abruptly in the past on a scale that could prove disastrous for modern society. Peter B. deMenocal, an associate professor at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, said that about 8,200 years ago, a very sudden cooling shut down the Atlantic conveyor belt. As a result, the land temperature in Greenland dropped more than 9 degrees Fahrenheit within a decade or two.
8200 years ago. Well, to this scientist-engineer that tells me the process happens without human byproducts and is caused by something else. In fact all the historic records demonstrate that the many, many previous events were driven by something other than an industrialized human race. In fact, given the simple data that the global warming cycle has happened 10 times before, and this is the only one with human’s involved, that puts the odds of this being a human effect at 10:1 against. And it is happened more times than that before now.
AJ–
I have no opinion on the theory of global warming, but this was a famous NASA scientist speaking in the article you linked, above.
James E. Hansen, who directs NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies, last week confirmed that 2005 was the warmest year on record, surpassing 1998. Earth’s average temperature has risen nearly 1 degree Fahrenheit over the past 30 years, he noted, and another increase of about 4 degrees over the next century would “imply changes that constitute practically a different planet.”
“It’s not something you can adapt to,” Hansen said in an interview. “We can’t let it go on another 10 years like this. We’ve got to do something.”
[…] We have a NASA scientist doing his Chicken Little shtick in Global Warming. This guy is correct on the warming (we have hard evidence, how could he not be) and is wildly speculating on the solution without any scientific basis whatsoever (which makes him one of those scientists who can measure, but is not good at developing a thesis on what the measurements mean). I have written a lot on the subject of what we know and don’t know (here, here and here). My speculations on the causes are as probable as the Kyoto crowd – except mine have not been disproved by the Kyoto crowds lousy computer models which can’t predict when tomorrow will arrive it seems. […]