Feb 17 2006
Fly By 2/17/06
Again my apologies to everyone for the light posting. I am starting to work the NASA Exploration Initiative and it is sucking up a lot of time as I ramp up. The good news is I think I know what I will be doing the next 20 odd years.
I also plan to finish reviewing the Able Danger hearings, what little there was to them. But something is not right and it looks like a standard DC cover up where everyone saves public face and the corrective actions are done behind the scene. At least one would hope they would be. The problem is someone went on a data purging rampage in 2000 starting with some politically uncomfortable results from a China infiltration study and then, for some obsessive reason, went on and deleted national security information on possible terrorists who ended up killing 3000 people. It seems this purging of embarrassing data happened again at DIA in 2004. The only thing I ever wanted out of Able Danger was assurances that no one could, in a fit of CYA, destroy valuable and critical data. That data is the property of the United States – it is the property of the people. It cannot be destroyed because someone’s career may be effected. But it seems the focus is on the retaliation by some people on those who blew the whistle on the data destruction and obstruction. Which is good. Maybe actions are being taken to not allow this to happen again.
On the Cheney madness I can only say conservative talk radio has sunk as low as the antique liberal media. They keep hyping it all day long and ignore Gore’s insane comments in Saudi Arabia and the fact Iran is getting closer to nuclear weapons. The liberal media is killing itself. All media is killing itself. Anyone who says Cheney should have come out earlier is missing all the damage done to the media by him coming out when and as he did. We now see the new media in this country is a bunch of arrogant, whiney people who are too lazy to tackle hard complex issues. Probably because they have a rough time grasping them. Our news media in DC is a bunch of gossip hounds.
We have a NASA scientist doing his Chicken Little shtick in Global Warming. This guy is correct on the warming (we have hard evidence, how could he not be) and is wildly speculating on the solution without any scientific basis whatsoever (which makes him one of those scientists who can measure, but is not good at developing a thesis on what the measurements mean). I have written a lot on the subject of what we know and don’t know (here, here and here). My speculations on the causes are as probable as the Kyoto crowd – except mine have not been disproved by the Kyoto crowds lousy computer models which can’t predict when tomorrow will arrive it seems.
Governor Arnold ain’t too smart on this either. What a waste. All that money Californians will pay out in gas taxes and it won’t do a damn thing.
As predicted, once Senators learned Bush did not order NSA to circumvent FISA but instead ordered FISA to use NSA leads (which they were detecting in the same basic manner before and after 9-11) they would retreat on a Senate Investigation. It would only open the program to new scrutiny and leave egg on everyone’s faces as the public learned that the NY Times got the whole thing ‘bass-ackwards’ (how’s that for redundancy). The antique news media is all in an uproar. More on this at Stop The ACLU. Seems the Democrats are caving on the Patriot Act as well:
Earlier today, the Senate handed the administration a victory as it voted, 96 to 3
The Bush administration helped derail a Senate bid to investigate a warrantless eavesdropping program yesterday after signaling it would reject Congress’s request to have former attorney general John D. Ashcroft and other officials testify about the program’s legality. The actions underscored a dramatic and possibly permanent drop in momentum for a congressional inquiry, which had seemed likely two months ago.
Given the fact FISA was refusing to follow up on NSA leads with warrants, unless they FBI took the time and had the luck to find independent, collaborative evidence, the NSA naysayers in the press were just given a huge favor. I for one would have liked to continue this to its logical conclusion where those who were so prudish to ignore obvious terrorist leads in this country simply because they came from the NSA were shown to America as historic examples of stupidity. The Priests of Process allowed 9-11 to happen through their obsession about the sanctity of process over what is truth. Once the 9-11 terrorists made into our country they were free to do what they needed, unhindered by ‘snooping’ law enforcement.
Well, hopefully more posting later today. Everyone please have a great day.
On Able Danger, Tony Snow is guest-hosting the O’Reilly Factor on Fox, and has an interview (tonight, Friday 2/17) with Rep. Weldon.
Merry Whitney
AJ,
Can’t remember where I read it, but President Bush paid his way through Harvard MBA by playing poker.
Can’t help but think the Democrats have “misunderestimated” this poker player.
ABLE DANGER HEARINGS – expose the bias at CSPAN.
I wanted to see the people and their body language as they
spoke/testified at the hearing. I think this is very important
and not just as a blame game, but in what we should be
doing in the future.
CSPAN, however, doesn’t see it that way. They have done doubles
and triples on Katrina and the Pelosi pressers, they gave us the president of the Urban League speaking on Katrina. And that
extremely important talk by RICHARD DREYFESS of the “Goodbye
Girl” wanting to say Goodbye to GW thru impeachment. Oh, and
they doubled the Urban League and doubled Tony Blair and Gordon
Brown – just saw Gordon again in different setting in my surf.
I could go on.
Rep Curt Weldon’s presser not broadcast, Pelosi presser from
prior day used to fill in break at Senate, NO ABLE DANGER HEARING
– just couldn’t squeeze in.
Oh, last night I finally saw the token John Bolton presser which was
then followed by Kofi etc – on lot loner.
Yes Mr. Lamb you sure are “neutral” – between the Left, Far Left
and Progressives.
Jack Kelly noticed too:
February 16, 2006
I was in DC yesterday for the ABLE DANGER hearing
which is why there were no posts. I’m going back tomorrow for the (second) unveiling of Saddam’s WMD tapes, which is why there will be no posts tomorrow (I don’t have a laptop.)
The ABLE DANGER hearing is the subject of my column for Sunday, so I have to be circumspect about it now. But a few observations:
1. Curt Weldon is a national hero. He badgered the Armed Services Committee into holding this hearing. I describe in my column how he humiliated Stephen Cambone, the undersecretary of defense for intelligence, who seems to be orchestrating the coverup. Friends in the military have described Cambone to me in terms unfit for printing in a family newspapers. After seeing him in action, I understand why.
2. Tony Shaffer makes a most credible witness. He has a thorough grasp of the facts, and doesn’t speculate about matters beyond his personal knowledge.
3. News coverage was horrible. CSPAN didn’t cover the hearing. The AP wrote a small dispatch. CNS had a longer dispatch, which is here. The best of the handful of accounts was by James Rosen of the Raleigh News & Observer,whose story is here. Most newspapers, including the one I work for, didn’t run anything on the hearing.
4. There definitely is a campaign to intimidate witnesses. Only three testified in open session, for fear of retaliation. They have good reason to be afraid. After Tony Shaffer “outed” himself as one of Weldon’s sources, the DIA tried to fire him. The grounds? When Shaffer was being interviewed prior to becoming an intelligence officer years ago, he admitted that at age 13, he’d stolen a box of pens from the embassy where his father worked. That, $67 in disputed telephone charges and $180 in disputed travel charges were the reasons why DIA said he should be canned.
Jack Kelly’s Irish Pennants
Click here: Irish Pennants: I was in DC yesterday for the ABLE DANGER hearing
Global Warming and Computer Models
Part of my work as a geologist is reviewing computer models which forecast geothermal fluid flow in underground layers of rock. These models rely on many thousands of variables, scientific intuition, and plain old guess work. A computer program is initiated with a set of variables which sets in motion multiple, inter-related, time driven formulae. A computer program runs these formulae millions of times, with each time generating run producing variables which are input into the next run. The results are voluminous, impressive, but not always right or reasonable. The ability to critique such models is very limited, so users must rely on the skill, judgement, and dispassion of the modeler. In many ways these geothermal models mimic the problems with global climate models (which are much more data intensive).
Scripps Howard News Service has reported on an interesting paper set to be published at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science by the paleoclimatologist Karen Bice (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution).
Her investigations, “…calls into question the accuracy of some computer models that forecast the impact of rising levels of heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the atmosphere…”
The sources of her information are deep sea core samples taken off the coast of Suriname. These rocks date to the age of the dinosaur (84 to 100 million years ago). Fossil shells extracted from the cores were used to estimate water temperatures of the seas at the time these critters lived. Near surface sea temperatures measured between 91 and 107 degrees and atmospheric CO2 was estimated to be 1,300 to 2,300 ppm (compared to todays 330 ppm).
Bice used the CO2 data in climate-simulation models and found the computer programs failed to produce such high ocean temperature levels.
One can draw different conclusions from the failure of the models, but whatever the conclusion is, it demonstrates climate models are unreliable. Until a reliable model is built, things like Kyoto are premature and built on junk science.
A computer program can be biased by its developer. Peer review is a necessity if it is to be used by non-technical policy makers. We already have seen how politicized the Kyoto Accords have become. Some scientists suffer from the same human condition as our political leaders and can (and will) bias the model to get the conclusion they want.
Many scientific voices have been raised against so-called climate models. Questions have been raised about the historic temperature data collected, the urban effect, sea surface effects, solar constancy, subterranean heat flow constancy, the model construction, the impact of other greenhouse gases (percent water vapor for example), and the amount of methane in the atmosphere. None of these matters have been adequately studied or addressed.
If we ever get to the point where a reliable model can be developed, then the next step is for this country and other countries to have a debate about what should be done (if anything), what it will cost, and if the benefits of change are worth it.