Jul 21 2010
The Anti-Liberal Tsunami Heading For The November Elections
Each district and state has a unique demographic makeup. That is why Massachusetts has been  one of the bluest (Dem) states in federal office elections, Texas has been one of the reddest (GOP) and Virginia (my home state) has been trending from red-purple to blue-purple. At least until 2009 when everything changed, and changed big.
In 2009 hard-blue NJ elected a GOP governor by +5%. Purple VA elected a GOP governor by nearly +20%. This year hard-blue MD has an all tied up race for Governor. Â And in 2010 hard-blue MA elected a GOP Senator by +5% points (when the GOP used to lose by +10%). Think of these as measurement points in a pond where you want to map the depth of the water.
When you get a rising tide of unified and angry voter opinion you see every region, no matter their recent color (partisan make up) turn either bluer or redder. In 2006 and 2008 the country started turning blue. President Obama won states no Democrat has won in ages, and by huge margins. On his coattails a pool of fresh democrat faces were sent to DC.
Where these Dems then proceeded to screw up so royally and completely the blue has now been drained from the country. A look at governor races, house races or senate races shows the blue  nearly all gone from political maps. The country is either red (gone GOP) or gray (toss up). The pendulum is swinging wildly right now.  We can gauge the height of the political tsunami that will crash in November by looking at polls where strong incumbent Democrats senators are in surprising trouble (Lincoln-AR, Boxer-CA, Murray-WA, Fiengold-WI, Reid-NV).  The red tied of voter anger has risen to the point these senators are either under water or barely hanging on.
We also see the red tied rising around those new Democrats in the House, who are now so far under water they might as well start packing up the office:
In an election for US House of Representatives in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District today, 07/20/10, Republican State Senator Robert Hurt defeats incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello 58% to 35%, according to this latest exclusive WDBJ-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.
Perriello won by a whisper in 2008 (basically a tie). He is now down +20%. Here is another house race example.
If the electorate moves 5% towards the GOP, on average, that would be normal for off year elections and the President’s party. If the electorate moves 10% that is a very bad year. If the tide has shifted between 10-20% towards the GOP (which is what we see when we look at NJ, VA and MA – and now these house polls) then the Democrats are in for a historic drubbing. One they may never recover from. Right now RCP predicts only 14 governors will be Democrats after November – a historic low. That means the GOP will have 70% of the governor seats! Dems could realistically lose 10+ Senate seats this year. Obama’s support is tanking and there are strong majorities ready to repeal his big policies wins (all achieved on hyper-partisan votes and slimy tactics).
How many dots do the liberals need to see before they get the message ? America is rejecting their idiotic policies, en masse. And do they really think 2012 will not see another round of draining the blue from the Senate?? Do they really think slamming through immigration amnesty and crippling energy taxes will stand up to this rising tide of anger?? I wouldn’t bet a penny on that happening.
AJ,
You have my home state’s (Maine) gubernatorial race as a toss up between Republican Paul LePage amd Democrat Libby Mitchell. The latest poll actually has LePage up 39-31. That may well be a toss-up – goodness knows this is a true blue state. But what is truly unusual is that LePage is leading here, not as a RINO (i.e. Snowe and Collins), but as a real “rock-ribbed” conservative. That this man actually has a chance to win in Maine is amazing to me. Heck, we haven’t elected a Republican Governor in 16 years – and he was Olympia Snowe’s husband!
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Love that side link about Phil Hare – he’s the pol who famously said about tape that he really couldn’t care less about the Constitution, Congress could do anything it wanted. (That was how he justified the Health Care Bill)
After the revelations about how the Journolist twerps conspired to help elect Obama in 2008, yesterday we had Gallup coming out with a poll that showed the Demo-rats up +6 in the generic ballot. Today they announce that the latest poll was of ADULTS and not REGISTERED VOTERS as the previous ones in the series were. It seems as though all sorts of organizations are trying to do anything they can to save the Obamunists. Perhaps they also sense a wipe-out coming and are trying the mitigate the damage? We know the One Party Media will be out there doing their damnest to help, as usual.
Also pay attention to state legislature races. There has even been talk that the Republicans could take the legislature in Minnesota. That would be nearly unheard of.
It would be nice if all of those voters were really turning to the “right” idealogically, but these numbers are just a reflexive whipsaw reaction, very much like the one that ushered the Democrats and Obama into office. It’s smoke and mirrors.
Even if we beat the “left” back this go around, I fear it will not be for long. America’s growing minorities love big government. It is just a matter of time until a supreme dominant number of voters end the stalemate. Ultimately the left will win, unless new groups of voters are inspired by freedom.
Well, as of July 1, respondents reported the following party affiliation:
35.4% Democrat 33.0% Republican
What you see is a swing in independents who are fleeing the Democrats in droves.
oneal lane: I agree. I wish this were not true, but I don’t see this changing. What scares me is that the pendulum has swung so far left that we can expect it to swing back to the far right. (Temporarily) I would hope that it would settle back in the middle again after that but I am worried that this may be very unlikely.
I think you will find Obama’s support and the support of Democrat candidates unchanged among voters identifying Democrat and Republican. Where you find the change is in Independent voters.
Interesting thing in California, though, where over 30% of Democrats favor Whitman for governor.