Sep 13 2010
Will Tea Party Have Upset In DE, Or Will Far Right Fail Again?
Public Policy Polling is out with a poll showing a nail-biter in the GOP primary in DE for VP Biden’s Senate seat. PPP has Christine O’Donnell – easily the worst candidate the Tea Party has promoted this year (outside a string of really good candidates) – leading Mike Castle 47-44%. This is within the margin of error, so turn out is key and who knows what it will be.
PPP was the only organization to detect Senator Lisa Murkowski’s troubles in her GOP Alaska primary, which she lost to a Tea Party candidate. But you can easily miss the intensity of the independents and center right in a state like DE. The dynamics are just not the same. And pollsters can easily miss the fact the Tea Party has a very small, but intense far right component to it, which makes it appear to be farther right than it really is.
O’Donnell is a true disaster, and goes to show that all political movements and parties have a range of supporters and candidates – from the abysmal to the inspiring. The Tea Party is no different. O’Donnell has some serious issues with the truth, issues with being a role model and issues with being someone you would trust your kids with for 10 minutes. While she may have some gems of sanity here and there, the total package is lacking. It is more a sign how small the conservative movement has become in deep blue states, distilled down to the far right crowd which do not represent the broader American electorate.
We shall see tomorrow if America’s priority is to throw the Dems our or to elect the most unelectable candidate in the nation simply because she is further right of the stronger GOP candidate on a handful of issues. Sadly, we see the right wing zealots raising their intolerant voices again as the would rather see radical conservative lose control of the US Senate to the dems than see a center-right conservative vote in a new GOP Senate Majority Leader. Clearly, there are those on the right who are really just the mirror image of the far left. They are creating a rift in the movement to unseat the Democrats this year, and as usual are out hunting RINOS. Pathetic.
An O’Donnell win would damage the Tea Party across the country, so don’t think the damage could be limited to DE. Someone as shaky as O’Donnell could cause a lot of doubt and loss of support for reasonable candidates in NV, CO, PA, etc. Remember, We The People recently fired the GOP from Congress in the last two elections, they are not swarming to the right out of inspiration. Jim DeMint may get his impotent rump party, pure and ineffective due to its small size (and yes, in politics size counts).
I have  my doubts O’Donnell will win in tomorrow’s primary. Pollsters have not been able to demonstrate any accuracy this season, though PPP has done it on occasion. Whatever the result, it is the way our democracy works so we will accept the decisions of the people of DE. Even if that decisions is just as horrendous as the decisions good Americans made in 2006 and 2008. After all, if conservatives are not for democracy then they are simply pretend conservatives.
Update: Jim Geraghty at NRO has a good round up of the fault lines being established thanks to the far right slamming people who disagree with them – just like liberals do.
The way I look at it, Castle has voted with Democrats most of the time and even voted to impeach President Bush. For O’Donnell we don’t know much about her policies, but she is new and I don’t think she will vote with the Democrats. And most new candidates don’t have track records (therefore new).
So we have a chance to get rid of another person that leans more with liberals than conservatives. Some say this isn’t bad (the voting) since we may have control of the Senate. Wait, didn’t another senator vote with Democrats and cause cloture and push Healthcare to the floor of the Senate? (Snowe)
Voting with the Democrats is a major problem. There is no sure thing that Castle would be the swing member to take over the Senate. Better to have a more 1992 Republican base then one filled with Democrats calling themselves Republicans to get elected.
Bobsunshine,
Read today’ post. Castle never voted to impeach Bush. That is a O’Donnell campaign lie.
>Also, don’t confuse people consumed by power (Crist, Jeffords,
>Specter) with people who have been loyal GOP caucus
>members (Snowe, McCain, etc).
AJ,
Castle voting for cap & trade was voting against the Republican caucus and with Democrats.
Ditto voting for R.5175 DISCLOSE Act.
Ditto regards voting to impeach Bush.
The pattern this election cycle has been for moderate AKA RINOs to be “people consumed by power” not the Tea Party candidates.
Their are two reasons Castle is losing.
First, Castle has disrespected new voters in his primary like Crist, Murkowshi and Spector did.
That is deservedly fatal for most candidates but triply so this year.
Second, when you do a side by side photo comparison of the two candidates, we have a “hot chick” versus a “big eared skull on a stick.”
Go to the photo comparison at this link:
http://www.redstate.com/neil_stevens/2010/09/13/kaboom-part-one-odonnell-over-castle/
This candidate visial factor is also at play with Jerry Brown and Whitman.
Brown looks like Senator Alan Cranston’s younger brother and Whitman is an attractive mature woman.
When Whitman started using current pictures of Brown rather than 15 year old press photos in her attack ads she lept out in front of Brown in the polls.
Trent,
No argument he voted to the left. The BIG difference is he will vote for a GOP majority and leadership, while O’Donnell is a hopeless and unproven cause.
She cannot win, so please stop pretending she could. She is horrible.
Well, AJ lost the argument and he knows it…