The bad news for Dems just keeps on coming. If you look at the RCP House Map today you find the GOP with 206 seats in their lean-strong categories (click to enlarge).

This includes picking up 31 Democrat seats in the ‘leans GOP‘ and ‘likely GOP‘ groupings. As I have watched the polls shift right all year I realize the battle this cycle is not really in the toss up group (today showing a potential to pick up 37 D seats) but is actually raging in the ‘leans Dem‘ turf. When you combine the total number of additional Dem seats in play in these two groups you get 37 +28 = 65 seats in jeopardy.

This means 65 + 31 = 96 Dem seats are on the line right now. Which makes this poll data truly stunning:

We looked at the sample in the 66 Democratic INCUMBENT districts that Charlie Cook lists as either toss-up or leaning Democratic at the time of the survey. In that key crosstab of Swing Democratic Incumbent Seats, the Republican lead grows to 49%-31% on the generic ballot. That is a very powerful crosstab that says the wave is coming.

(H/T Ed Morrissey) RCP has 65, Cook has 66 – so close enough, I will go with RCP’s numbers.

I have been predicting a wipe out since February, but even I was not going to predict an 80+ seat take over by the GOP. But right now it looks very possible. Assuming the GOP loses the 3 seats RCP has listed in the likely Dem or leans Dem categories, then that equates to a possible 62 seat pick up across the toss up and leans Dem races RCP is currently watching.

If the GOP really is holding +18% lead in these districts, I can see the GOP picking up well over 80% of these seats, but let’s tone down our excitement a bit and go with 80%. That equates to a 50 seat pick up for the GOP, on top of the 31 Democrat seats already in the GOP column.

Shazam – an 81 seat pick up! I am truly amazed.

Update: Pew is out with another nail in the coffin of the current Democrat Congress

Tags: 2010 Elections, GOP Landslide, House