Oct 15 2010
Coons In Trouble?
Talk about bending the curve and a momentum shift:
Democrat Chris Coons holds an 11-point lead over Republican Christine O’Donnell in Delaware’s U.S. Senate race following the candidates’ debate Wednesday night.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Delaware shows Coons earning 51% of the vote, while O’Donnell draws 40% support. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided.
Rasmussen has had Coons up by 11% pretty consistently since early September. His polls are definitely bucking the trend showing O’Donnell twice as far behind. We will need to see some other polls, but O’Donnell could have quelled enough unease to have a number of voters reconsider if they want the Dems running the Senate (and therefore the country further into the ground). Coons did not help himself in the debates – being a classic silver-spoon elitist. Maybe she pulls the hat out of the rabbit.
Even if Coons wins, this race is turning out to be quite beneficial since it’s sucking up a lot of attention and money from the dems that could be going to other races, like West Va and Pennsylvania.
Also a Coons win would prevent Beau Biden from trying to jump back in to what he considers his birthright in 2014.
Oh my! Now, that’s interesting but is there enough time for O’Donnell to gain momentum? If OD wins in spite of the Dems’ pouring money into this race, that will be very devastating to the Democratic party for a long time.
Seems this entire election year comes down to a choice between a few newcomers who speak the truth, as they know it, albeit a bit nervously and sometimes a little bit inarticulately
And
a bunch of career control freaks who will gladly lie to your face with the utmost sincerity and expect you to honor them with your vote for doing so!
Don’t be fooled those willing to boldly lie to get what they want will steal you blind if given half a chance.
AJ,
Charles Cook and a lot of other political pros like Stu Rothenberg are being fed moonshine by the Democrats about their GOTV mobilization efforts with young and black voters.
See stories like this one over on the NY Times blog:
http://community.nytimes.com/comments/www.nytimes.com/2010/10/14/us/politics/14bai.html
Midterms Are a Test for Obama’s Ground Game
By MATT BAI
Published: October 13, 2010
I spend some time after the 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections trying to find the signs of a major GOTV effort on the Left.
None of my usual markers for a large Leftist GOTV effort have been going off this election cycle.
When I read that NY TIMES blog GOTV piece, I smelled a rat and posted the following to an e-mail list I am on.
Me
…am I reading this wrong to think this level of GOTV organizing needed to start happening six to nine months ago?
Which surfaced this response from a member of the list:
Leftie Colorado GOTV Guy:
Yeah. Equivalent of “The spring and summer of 1945 will surely be the real test for the new German jet aircraft …”
Me:
Have you heard any serious Democratic GOTV efforts in the last 6 to nine months?
Leftie Colorado GOTV Guy:
Zilch. I know half a dozen people who gave 2008 to Obama who the local Demo leadership basically told, eaahh, we’ll call you if we need you, as late as early August. At least in the Front Range of Colorado, it’s being treated as a nothing-matters exercise.
.
You know, the Tea Party hornets were always latent in the ‘Pubs, for at least a generation before they busted out; it took the big defeat of 2008 to make that happen. Every Democratic low-level organizer — precinct captains, street leaders, the people you count on to throw a coffee or put together a small demo — I know , who I would want to have on my side if I were running, is on the sidelines for 2010, some from disgust, many from being told, “uh, yeah, we’ll have to call you or something sometime.” But I think this is mainly a Colorado Front Range phenomenon; the regular party org is dedicated to getting Hickenlooper into the governor’s mansion and not much else, so they want the scruffy kids to go away.
.
But if this is happening in more than Colorado –and now that you mention it, GOTVers I know in California, Ohio, Missouri, Montana, and New Mexico are similarly idle this year — then you may be looking at the Demos calving an anti-DINO movement after the election. Something about getting what you most don’t want after the regular leadership runs a sloppy, half-hearted campaign and tells the fire-eaters to stay home will do that, I think, regardless of ideology.
.
2012 might be a real circus, if we get to it …
Based on that, IMO, there is no way — outside of urban city center fraud — that Democrats are going to get high voter turn out in 2010.
This is what will make this wave election so bad for the Democrats.
It is the partisan enthusiasm difference between Repulicans and Democrats combined with the phenomena of “Weak Partisan Wave Election Candidates facing Opposing Partisan Wave Election cycle” that will cause the unexpectedly large election day cave-ins on Nov 2, 2010.
Inexperience and arrogance, Trent. Until the last couple of weeks they didn’t really believe they needed the help, so why bother? And they’re too inexperienced to realize that you *always* go all out no matter what you think is going to happen, if just to give you insurance against the turns you can’t foresee.
I remember in 2008, even in my conservative neighborhood in Texas, I had some young campaigners come by, knock on my door and ask me to support Obama. I couldn’t help but be impressed by their level of commitment, even if I disagreed with them. Nothing like that going on this year.
And the “youth vote” is going to prove why they are so fickle, and so dangerous a foundation to build on. The entire reason “youth” came out for Obama is because “Obama was Cool.” Like all youth from any time, most will do anything as long as their peers tell them it’s “cool”.
Obama ain’t cool no more, and even worse, it’s kind of like virginity. Once it’s lost, it never comes back.
bye bye youth vote – hello good old apathy.
wws, hey…wondering if you’re seeing many “Bill White” yard signs in your neighborhood? Mine? Only one! However, I’ve had two people saying that they are seeing a lot of those yard signs in their own neighborhoods or Austin (one of them is the Clear Lake Forest off Kirby). I’m not surprised about Austin since it’s a very liberal town in a very liberal county (Travis).
But Clear Lake Forest? That’s weird. That’s a very nice but old neighborhood.
I just came across this article saying that the Dem voter turnout is the lowest in history: http://sweetness-light.com/archive/dem-primary-turnout-is-lowest-in-history?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+sweetness-light/sURR+(Sweetness+%26+Light+-+Articles)
I can’t wait to see how long the line will be next Monday – first day of early voting! I will be helping a judge candidate passing out ballots. Sounds like we are going to have paper ballots. These ballots are extremely long.
And, wws, what do you think about the proposals that are on the ballot? Prop 1 and 3 are nays. What about Prop 2?
Oh yeah, I’m hearing that the Dems have been doing lots of block walking in Houston. But what the heck, the Republicans are really coming out!
Did you see the “The GOP is the BLACK!” billboard? Google freedombillboardsoftexas. Looks like we now have more than ten billboards up plus Apostle Claver’s! YEAH!
I have to say that I do see a whole lot more Bill White signs than Perry signs – White is running a good ground game. Of course, I know and live around a lot of lawyers, and that group more than any other is Bill White’s base.
I think what it comes down to is the black voter turnout. White needs a heavy black turnout in order to win, but I can’t really see that happening in this midterm.
Ah…those dang lawyers who want tort reform deformed!!
Thought you might find this interesting: http://www.conservatives4palin.com/2010/10/story-of-young-controversial-delaware.html
Apostle Claver has been working very hard in Sheila Jackson Lee’s, Gene Greene, and possibly Al Green’s districts to convince many blacks to vote according to their principles. He claims a high percentage of the blacks believe in conservative principles and values and sees that percentage increasing. He also claims that all he needs is a minimum of 30 percent of the blacks in those districts to vote Republican and those 3 will be defeated.
What makes you think that Houston will not see a high black voter turnout?
What was wrong with the postings?
I can now see them in the root directory, wo. the need to go to Comments before being able to read them?
Ok, if O’Donnell comes to within 10 points, she can win because I believe turnout differences will trump a 10 point polling difference this year. But it all depends on if she can win by enough to put her out of “cheating” range. She will need to win by at least 5 points because otherwise the Democrats will find enough dead voters and “misplaced ballots” in the backseats of poll workers’ cars to make up the difference.
Crosspatch:
I don’t think she can win without Castle’s endorsement. The 5% other candidate is in all likelihood voters who want to vote for Castle. This race is still a 40-35-25 race, so she is only 5% behind but is not getting the Castle vote. With an endorsement from Castle and more support from the DE GOP and the NRSC she can win.
The first two debates were the start of changing the game but will only get her so far. She needs help from these other sources or she will come up short.
>What makes you think that Houston will not see a high
>black voter turnout?
1) Obama is not on the ticket.
2) The Leftist volunteers are not coming.
3) Soros and the other deep pockets are not funding the Leftist GOTV machine this election cycle.
I just don’t see Castle supporters deciding to go for Coons. Ain’t gonna happen. When it gets down to it, the voter in the booth is gonna have to decide, Socialist same old same old OR something different, Tea Party, cut taxes, try it a different way.
Logically only one decision is viable and that’s O’Donnell. Don’t look at what the polls say, the voters will decide. It’s a done deal.
Well, something is happening in DE for the Dems to send their big guns (Obama/Biden) and the National Dem committee to send more money there. Why waste manpower and resources on a race you feel certain about?
Democrat Insider: Christine O’Donnell will come very close to winning in Delaware
http://hillbuzz.org/2010/10/16/democrat-insider-christine-odonnell-will-come-very-close-to-winning-in-delaware/
Christine O’Donnell outraises Chris Coons more than 2-to-1
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43683.html
and, it doesn’t hurt that the Tea Party is getting ready to dump tons of money in an ad blitz in DE.
I think she can pull it off.
with regards to black voters – the funniest story of this election season has GOT to be how Chicago “accidentally” listed the name of the Green Party candidate for Gov. as “Rich Whitey”!!!
“CHICAGO (KFSN) — A candidate for governor in Illinois was mistakenly listed as “Rich Whitey” instead of Rich Whitney on thousands of Chicago electronic-voting machines.
Possibly making matters worse, about half the wrong ballots are in African-American neighborhoods.
His name is actually Rich Whitney. He’s the Green Party candidate for governor. ”
http://abclocal.go.com/kfsn/story?section=news/bizarre&id=7729009
at least one wit has already pointed out that you could list *Most* of the candidates in this country, republican and democrat, as “Rich Whitey” and it would save the voters a lot of time!
Off thread a bit…
The D’s must be really worried about Patty Murray despite the polls. Bill Clinton is in Everett today, Joe Biden in Vancouver (WA) tomorrow, and the Unicorn Rider is in Seattle at the U of Washington on Wednesday.
Biden’s visit is a waste, Vancouver is GOP territory. Obama is preaching to the choir. Clinton’s visit might help a bit, but Snohomish county (north Seattle suburbs) has really started being hurt by foreclosures and may not be in a mood to listen. There were several letters-to-the editor over the weekend bemoaning the traffic tie-ups likely from the Clinton and Obama visits.
Christine O’donnell can pull this out. The elites of the GOP, the Senate campaign folks, Carl Rove, Krauthammer and others dismissed her and are sabotaging her bid. I think that she just may win despite the efforts of the GOP to sink her.