Last year I predicted a 2-3 seat pick up for the Reps in ’06. Time to update those predictions and add in the new tight races and shelve those not even competitive anymore. BTW, no need to point out how unconventional these picks are. I always pick outside the CW.

(1) I gave Steele a better than 50-50 chance to win MD and I still do. DC Democrats in the MD suburbs are very pragmatic and they know they have plenty of voices in the Democrat party and really could use a voice in the Republican side. I still say this is Steele’s to lose.

<[>(2) As I predicted FL will stick with Bill Nelson, so this race is off the watch list.

(3) When I made my prediction for WVA Caputo was still a viable option. I still think WVA may end the old Byrd’s reign this year. He had to be begged to run one more time. I still see this as a toss up.

(4) MN I still think will go Rep with Kennedy. The race has been tightening, Norm Coleman showed MN Reps can proudly represent the state, and a R Governor tops the ticket and will have coattails. Rep pick up.

(5) It is clear the other Nelson also has solidified his position in Nebraska so I am taking this off the watch list.

(6) Another one of my risky picks, I am now really confident Menedez Keane (Thanks Macker!) can take NJ after Corzine shut the government down 4th of July so he could raise taxes. NJ needs to switch from the Dems who have been a string of embarrasments.

(7) I am going to do a bunch of quick ones off the watch list since the CW kept saying these would be close and they were, as usual, wrong. Clinton wins in NY, Hutchison in TX, Allen in VA.

(8) Tennessee stays dark red as Harold Ford loses to any Rep.

(9) Sad to say, PA goes to Dems with Casey win. I like Santorum, but only a miracle can pull him out. If he wins the Reps would crush the dems in many other closer races.

(10) Chafee will keep his seat in RI once he wins the primary. Chafee’s numbers are low because Reps wish they could unseat him. But this is RI and the conservatives cannot win. Once it is between Chafee and Senate Majority Leader Reid (and impeachment, etc) RI will realize Chafee is good enough.

(11) Same thing with Montanna. Montanna may not like Burns, but the state would never want to put liberals from NY and CA in charge of Congress. The race will tighten back up when real polls start to come out in September.

(12) Tenant will win in MO as well, though this is a close one

(13) Dewine will cross the 50% mark in polls and keep is seat in OH. Polls right now show an enormous gap with him only a few points below the magic majority number.

(14) I said it before and I will predict it again, Cantwell will lose in a big surprise in Washington State (the bogus election counting from the Rossy Governor race loss is not going to allow Cantwell any benefit of the doubt. If in doubt voters will punish the Dems for their shenanigans. Since Cantwell supported the Iraq war the far left could care less who wins, since there is no difference between the two candidates in their myopic view. They stay home and Cantwell loses.

Finally CT: Leiberman wins as Dem or Indie.

OK, if I am doing the math right I see most races not switching hands except PA goes Dem and NJ, MD and WA probably going Rep. WV is a wild card as is MO. I have to admit Bush took more hits than I expected when I predicted back in May of 2005 a +3 gain. I am now at a +2 gain. Is this optimistic? Of course. Will the Reps lose control of the Senate? Can’t see it happening right now. But things change. The fact is they can change left or right.