Aug 15 2006
Hezbollah Defies More Cease Fire Conditions
Anyone still believing Hezbollah (and Syria and Iran) are serious about the UN ceasefire? First Hezbollah says it will not disarm and now it says it will not leave Southern Lebanon. Hopefully the Israelis are getting re-fueled, re-armed and ready to come back in since the UN is possibly months away from being able to deploy troops – and apparently France is backing out of their promise to participate. Surprised? Not at all. There will be no cry for a second UN ceasefire – that much is for sure.
What’s the ideal time to go back in?
At first Israel can complain to the UN. And, let the stalling dances begin. But at what point would they go back? And, if they go back, would the fire power be greater? One problem with sugical weaponry is that it doesn’t kill enough troops. And, hezbollah doesn’t have “troops.” It has civilians who shoot rockets. How have anti tank launchers in their backyards.
What’s strange is that the lebanese are toodling back into Southern Lebanon, on all sorts of makeshift roadways. While if anything flames shortly, it will be convoys from Syria trying to get to resupply hezbollah. I think Israel has something like 10,000 troops deployed.
And, the one part of the “cease fire” that’s working out well, is that NO MISSILES are flying out of lebanon into Israel at this point.
Israel’s not asleep. Resupplies are coming in. And, those tanks! Some ten years old. And, trying to get their kinks out; need repair. During the 3 weeks in Lebanon I’m not so sure tank repairs were being done efficiently.
If Hezbollah was really winning they wouldn’t have called for a “cease fire.” And, their missiles barrage wouldn’t stop, either.
The other thing is what’s Assad gonna do? He does this giraffe talk routine. Sticks his neck up. But his troops go nowhere. I don’t think Israel’s demoralized. (Other than maybe angry at Olmert). But waiting. And, IF there’s another round WOULD IT BE SPEEDED UP? In other words a TOTAL FORCE FORWARD, instead of all the diddling we saw for 3 weeks? Once syria engages, I can’t imagine Bush just sits it out.
On the other hand, having watched Bush sit out 2002. With the patience of a saint, while he baited Saddam AND went to the UN, what he achieved was the ability to use force BECAUSE the UN option was tried. And, it failed.
Why not see this in the same light?
If all hezbollah does is runs it mouth, that’s the “delay” to the next change. Which has to be provocative. And, syria seems the last country on earth that wants to tangle with Israel. No matter what the giraffe says.
Well, I’m not master of grand strategy. But George S. Patton once said there’s nothing new in fighting wars. (Sure. The tools change.) But his point was to study wars as far back as they got recorded. You can be bold. You can be duplicious, to fool your enemy. You can act weak when in fact you are strong (and here is were I see Olmert) … Or you can do damage by INACTION. Letting your enemy lose steam. Bearings. Money. And, morale.
On the other hand, George S. Patton believed there was one command. FORWARD.
Still he was used to deceive. Making the german’s think the Allies were coming from Calais. And, that meant hitler had to split his troops, and reduce his strength in Normandy.
It gets interesting when you try to focus on the strategy.
This Cease Fire Will Not Last…
You get that? A friggin year! Holy crap man….what is the use of this organization again? A year to get 15,000 troops in theater….un-freakin-believable.
……
I hope Livni gave Annan a deadline – more like 24 to 48 hours for Annan to stand up against Hezbollah.
If not, then start the war again.
I see that Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey forced the Iranian planes to return to Iran.
Iranian planes filled with fighters and missiles.
Will these 3 countries continue this stance if Israel resumes?
Now we see Iran deciding to discuss its nuclear halt.
Are we seeing a different picture of…victory?
The Hezbollah claim its first priority is reconstruction. Yeah, its own reconstruction of bunkers and tunnel systems.
Fight Fire with Fire…
Israeli government warned that the IDF will have to resume operations in Lebanon if the expanded United Nations force being assembled does not fulfill its obligation to dismantle Hizbullah. All the details on the Jerusalem Post….