John Mcintyre at RCP has gone out ahead of the news to claim George Allen is in trouble, or will be if polls show he is:

Bottom line, George Allen is in trouble. And if these next round of polls show this contest tied or Webb ahead, Allen will be in big, big trouble.

Puullease! Virginia is always going to be a tough state for both parties. Northern VA is home to a lot of DC democrats who come in for a while and leave. But Allen is not in trouble, he has a challenger. A challenger who clearly alluded to the fact women are driven to the military because they are “horny”. And a challenger who pretended to be a Reagan Democrat when he was booted for not being a team player. And a challenger whose supporters have been using religion as a way to bash Allen for doing what any son would do, honor his mother’s wishes. When major Jewish organizations are writing letters to the Webb campaign putting them on notice – that is not good for Webb.

Bush took VA with small margins. We have had two Democrat Governors in a row now (mainly to offset the Rep legislature which is known for bickering). So the state is not as reliably red as many would believe. Having watched the Michael Steele commercial from MD and seeing what a damn outstanding message he has crafted (in a genuine and disarming personal ad) I can tell you MD will go Rep before VA goes Dem. Can Allen lose? Of course. Has he been overhyped by the political chattering class? Of course. He was an interesting name but Warner and Allen will neither be President in 2008 – neither are that good or experienced.

But this handwringing is ridiculous. Yes, if polls show Allen losing ground to Webb he will be in trouble – duh. But the polls have shown just the opposite and I cannot over-emphasize the impact of Webb’s sexist comments on Norther Virginian women (the most reliable, largest voting block in the region). When Webb said there was no woman he knew who could provider leadership he slapped every working women right across the face. To live in Northern Virginia requires two working spouses. The insult was cruel and harsh and will not be forgotten – by the women or their husbands. Webb cannot win without the support of women. And what woman would vote for a sexist jerk who sees her as a permanently second class human being?

I know a strongly Democrat woman who hates George Allen. She will never vote for Allen. But after hearing what Webb said, she will never vote for Webb. Why? Because she spent her entire life showing men like Webb that women can lead and be in charge and have a professional career. She may hate Allen, but she cannot let a man like Webb win after all those years fighting his kind.