Nov 04 2006
Big Shift Towards Reps
What happened to the increasing generic ballot lead of the dems? I have seen numbers ranging from 11-15% for the Dems. But now comes out a Washington Post/ABC News poll showing only a 6% lead for the dems! It was 14% in the last poll. I would take that as a big turn for the Reps here in the last weekend of this election. The Dems may not losing as much as pollsters are fixing their turnout models – finally.
Update: The liberal media’s denial is almost embarrassing. From this devastating poll the WaPo writes that the Dems are poised to take over both houses of Congress!
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows some narrowing in the Democratic advantage in House races. The survey gives the Democrats a six-percentage-point lead nationally among likely voters asked which party they prefer for Congress. It was 14 points two weeks ago, but this remains a larger advantage than they have had in recent midterm elections.
Right. The trend of losing nearly 2/3rds of the support in two weeks is nothing! Amazing. They really do believe their own spin. Mark Coffey highlights the movement in many other numbers in the poll – all in the GOP’s direction.
Update: Check out TKS on the news. And PA is seeing very large absentee voting levels for a midterm election. Word is the phenomena is statewide. If anything is going to salvage Congress and the Senate it would be surprise wins in PA.
Or the pollster trying to save face..by extracting its special sauce..They are all doing it now that they think they slowed down the Rep momentum.
What Liberal Media?: Part 82…
The headline in the Washington Post: Democrats, On The Offensive, Could Gain Both Houses. And they very well could…yet the article presents no evidence that the Senate will swing the Democrats’ way, and the survey that provided the impetus…
FLASH-BIG Shift In Generic Polls!!!…
Just released and thanks to “AJ Strata” for staying up late to post:
What happened to the increasing generic ballot lead of the dems? I have seen numbers ranging from 11-15% for the Dems. But now comes out a Washington Post/ABC News poll …
The 1 1/2% solution shows Republicans will win…
All that mumbo-jumbo about feelings is fine, but the cold facts from the poll gave an inkling that the Republican Get Out The Vote Effort is working. 29% said they were contacted by a Republican candidate; 20% said by a Democrat….
The Democrat Tsunami Is a Great Tsunami of Lies…
Yesterday Big Mo and I both wrote prescient posts about the shift to the GOP. The latest numbers support our optimism.
Others blogging:
AJ Strata
Stop the ACLU
Polipundit
TKS
Rumors of a democrat tsunami are greatly exaggerated… On Wednesday the…
Conflicting Realities…
I think Republicans are in for a pleasant suprise on Tuesday and the topic of conversation at flower shops, abortion clinics, and gay bath houses across the country on Wednesday morning will be suicide. These liberals work so hard to get their hopes …..
Interesting to note is the voter party affiliation numbers for October that I saw linked to by Ace. While the gist of the thing is to show the Dems outnumber the Reps, if you add the numbers together what is apparent to me is that the total number of people identifying as either has fallen … again. The “other” category got bigger.
Here’s the link.
Maybe the other category rising are the hangups. As I have said before I don’t believe polls and never pay any attention to them. I don’t answer the phone if I don’t recognize the number.
Voting Links Galore!…
What does it all mean? I’ll throw out the links, and let you sort ’em out. First up we have the so-far-left-he’s-about-to-topple-into-a-vat-of-socialism Bob Kuttner in yesterdays Boston Globe essentially saying that either the Democrats enjoy a glor…
One MO time! The Polls have shown that they cannot be trusted, Especially those of the LAME Media!
Me thinks the Louder and More Shrill the LAME media gets, They are not likin what they see!!
They’ve done their best to Shill for the DIMS, I don’t think it’s workin this time or has since 00, sumthin about that “Alternative” Media!!:)
We shall see??
Not quite and not really…keep the cork on the champagne.
(Time for a reality check here, with respect and warmth for my republican friends out there:)
In the WP Poll, which shows 51-45 for the DEMS under likely voters, the figures under registered voters is 53-43, which is still pretty darned devastating.
As so many of my republican friends have loved to do every time they see a poll they don’t like, they dismiss it as an ‘outlier’ and assume the next poll will be better, which has not happened very often in this cycle.
Folks, this is the ONLY poll since the third week of February 2006 (since 8 + months) which shows a single-digit gain for the DEMS instead of a double digit gain, and comes at the same time that all poll averages for important specific races still show leads for DEMS in MT, MO and VA. And in MD, Cardin has sprung back already (shame, I really like Steele and would like to see him win). Stick a fork in Chafee in RI and place him next to Santorum and DeWine.
All of this is the usual tightening and expanding of a race right before the finish. To make matters worse, polling on the weekends almost always tends to come out much more strongly for the blues than for the reds, so don’t expect great news in polling on Monday. Even Scott at http://www.electionprojection.com (an excellent site) is forecasting doom, and he is a staunch republican whose figures were right on the money last time. Ditto for http://www.electoral-vote.com, which can also boast a 100% batting record from 2004.
Therefore, out of fairness, the chances are really strong that this poll is also an “outlier”, which will either be proven or disproven with the next generic polls on Mon.
So, don’t get too excited yet. The fat lady hasn’t even started warming-up to sing yet…
This from that link to poll:
Oh, by the way, the Post was kind enough to give us a bit of history on their generic ballot preference question:
Dem Rep Other Neither Will not No
cand. cand. (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin.
11/6/94 RV 47 42 5 2 5
10/31/94 RV 48 44 4 1 3
So not only were the Dems leading on 11/6, they were WIDENING their lead in that last week period. Very interesting. But polls are like Thesis. You can prove what you want to prove, you just have to ask the questions the right way.
Newsweek Poll…
Now MSNBC, momma of Newsweek, is acknowledging that the individual races are tightening up. They think they can have it both ways – the republicans are losing momentum at the same time the races are tightening. Hmmm. How does that happen? It happens…
Momentum Shifting? Come on Home, Baby!…
Are Republicans coming home close to the elections? I figuref there’d be some of that as the voting booth loomed closer, but an 8-point shift on the generic ballot question?
Bush job approval: 43%, up from 40 (Registered Voters)
Generic Likely……
Here Comes the 4th Quarter Comeback…
Nevermind that the headline proclaims the Democrats could take both Houses of Congress on Tuesday… it looks like the ABC/Washington Post poll has shifted a net eight points in favor of Republicans. (hat tip: StopTheACLU)
The ABC Washington Post …
Mid-Term ’06. Le ultime 48 ore /1…
Risultati contradditori nell’ultima ondata di sondaggi sul generic congressional ballot effettuati nel weekend. Time e Newsweek registrano un fortissimo vantaggio democratico (rispettivamente di 15 e 16 punti percentuali), mentre Pew Research (+4%), ….