Dec 07 2006
My Smuggling Theory Coming To Light
Hat Tip to Clarice Feldman for pointing out that my theory the Polonium 210 was a smuggling effort, separate and distinct from an assassination attempt, is now getting more serious reporting.
As Scotland Yard announced that it is treating Alexander Litvinenko’s death as murder, the suspicion is that whoever smuggled the radioactive isotope into Britain, they are not the assassin.
Evidence suggests that a sizeable team was sent from Moscow to shadow its prey, and that this surveillance squad may not have known the identity of the killer.
Scotland Yard said that it was “important to stress that we have not reached any conclusions as to the means employed, the motive or the identity of those who might be responsible for Mr Litvinenko’s deathâ€.
Note that Scotland Yard is leaving open “means” and “motive”, but they do believe a sizeable team entered the UK. I agree with some of those speculating in the comments sections here that we may have two groups of Russians playing chess on UK soil. One was the smugglers and one team was trying to find out what all the activity was about. Litvinenko still does not warrant a large expenditure of any kind. Not a large team to track or the 30+ million euros in Polonium-210.
And I think what we have here is a news media unable to let go of the assassination theory and just not listening to authorities. I think UK and Russian authorities are doing all they can to run this to ground because they know a large scale smuggling effort is much more dangerous to both countries than an assassin and one marginal victim. In fact one leading Russian understands that there is a truly concerning scenario that aims to split Russia and the US and UK relationship apart:
Former Russian Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar, who fell violently ill in Ireland two weeks ago, says he believes somebody tried to poison him.
He also said opponents of the Russian authorities were probably responsible.
Writing in the Financial Times, Mr Gaidar said he had “rejected the idea of complicity of the Russian leadership almost immediately”.
…
Mr Gaidar said that in his own case it was “most likely” that “some obvious or hidden adversaries of the Russian authorities stand behind the scenes”.
He blamed “those who are interested in further radical deterioration of relations between Russia and the West”.
That sounds like he is describing Berezovsky, Zakayev and Goldfarb. People who, if they were involved in Litvinenko’s poisoning, really needed a diversionary event like the killing of another Russian under mysterious terms. It was quite a fortuituous coincidence then.
Yeah, I agree. But when I see so much stuff coming from so many places … I mean … I see 47 arrows pointing more or less in one direction and see no arrows pointing in the other direction and only hear people saying the arrows “should” point in that direction … I widen my search and I am still finding all the arrows pointing more or less in the direction of smuggling gone bad. So lacking any more evidence and having no way to turn any more up, I suppose all I can do at this point is rest and wait until someone reports more evidence to speculate on.
CP…the Tom on your way “out” there link is and always has been hilarious…I read one of his dispatches once that implicated everyone under the sun in the Plame affair, including the Clintons!
And here is a doozy, for fun
UH…yeah. They committed suicide. His reports are comedy gold.
The smuggling theory is the most likely, I agree. There is just no reason for someone to pump in these vast quantities of Po-210 in this guy. Well, there are a few reasons for doing even that, that I can think of but they’re speculative at best.
Furthermore, he can’t have ingested it, for if he had, he would not have irradiated so many places in his path. It was sprayed or splashed on him in some manner, either by plan or by accident. Anyway, if the smuggling scenario is correct, it would seem like an extraordinary coincidence that Scaramella, armed with a death list, would meet up with Litvinenko on the very same day that he was poisoned in a Po-210 transfer operation.
Considering how unlikely this is, it follows that Scaramella is probably lying and is likely to be a smuggler himself, a mercenary. He gave Litvinenko the radioactive material, and he passed it on to Lugovoi et al, who may or may not have had additional material. Perhaps the container was (purposefully or not) compromised when in Scaramella’s possession, or perhaps he has later ingested a small amount to divert attention from the activity at the Milennium hotel.
If it is correct that Litvinenko received his 100 x fatal dose on the Milennium hotel by accident, such as dropping a glass jar, they should have found enormous amounts at the Milennium hotel (at least 1000 x lethal). As far as I can see, they have not, though? Perhaps they tried to clean up the material somehow.
I still think that the $30M is meaningless because it was a government source and free to favored spooks. I also still think that the spill in the hotel room wasn’t severe, just high speicific activity. I wrote earlier that the Scaramella “5x” dose has been subsequently challenged. Gaidar blames enemies of Russia… why was he poisened at the same time as Sasha’s death, what is the common factor? Wasn’t there some celebration in Lithuania about this time?
I’m still frustrated because the contamination trails are so entwined, there must be many important details we haven’t been told. Lugovoi’s been trailing Po for weeks (even after Sasha got sick, right into the British embassy) yet we know nothing more about this; there is contamination in a variety of hotels and airplanes but we don’t know exactly who was involved (hotel receipts and plane tickets); Scaramella and the sushi bar table cloth had significant contamination but there was no contamination of the sushi bar staff; then Kovtun subsequently gets a greater dose in the hotel bar (with minor contamination of the bar staff) and goes into a coma; in between the sushi and the Millennium Sasha went to BorisB-land but no one there is known to be contaminated although the couch and copier are.
Has it been reported that Kovtun and Sasha met before the sushi bar lunch? The only statements I’ve seen from Kovtun place his meeting with Sasha after the sushi.
AJ–
At least quote Zakaev, he didn’t say “blah blah blah.”
He is not threatening; he is saying that we are getting this plutonium because we haven’t stood up to Putin. And a lot of murdered Russians have been saying the same thing.
Here is what Zakayev said:
“”I think responsibility for everything that’s happening today in Russia lies not just with the G8 but all leaders of Western countries, European countries, who one way or another have helped to strengthen and establish this criminal regime in Moscow,” Zakayev said.
“The fact that Russian democracy and freedom of speech has been betrayed — the responsibility for that lies with those who today welcome Putin with outstretched hands and call him a crystal pure democrat.”
He said Western reliance on Russian oil and gas supplies was no excuse for passivity.
“Today Europe doesn’t just get energy from there (Russia). They get polonium 210, they get the dirty bomb, they get dirty money, they get corruption, crime,” Zakayev said.
“If today, this country [Russia] that occupies a sixth of the earth, on whose territory is concentrated tons of bacteriological, chemical and biological weapons, isn’t taken under control and questions aren’t asked about the responsibility of the man in charge and the government, that will be a danger for the whole world.”
I think it is possible that the polonium was in cigarettes.
The smoker may have even been unwittingly delivering the plutonium during meetings.
That might explain why small amounts are all over the place.
Snapple, I agree with you completely about Chechens and Zakayev, and think that Zakayev was impassioned — angry about the death of his friend, and pleading with the West to wake up to Russia’s threat. For whatever reason — and I don’t mean to offend you AJ — many Americans refuse to learn about or understand which Chechens (and Muslims in general) are the terrorists — and that can adversely color opinions.
AJ, on this one point I do think you are completely off, to the point of unfair and even a little hysterical, in how you read and interpret what Zakayev actually said.
Here again is the quote:
http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/articlenews.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006-12-07T093743Z_01_NOA734640_RTRUKOC_0_BRITAIN-POISONING-ZAKAYEV.xml&pageNumber=1&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=NewsArt-C1-ArticlePage1
“I think responsibility for everything that’s happening today in Russia lies not just with the G8 but all leaders of Western countries, European countries, who one way or another have helped to strengthen and establish this criminal regime in Moscow,” Zakayev said.
“The fact that Russian democracy and freedom of speech has been betrayed — the responsibility for that lies with those who today welcome Putin with outstretched hands and call him a crystal pure democrat.”
He said Western reliance on Russian oil and gas supplies was no excuse for passivity.
“Today Europe doesn’t just get energy from there (Russia). They get polonium 210, they get the dirty bomb, they get dirty money, they get corruption, crime,” Zakayev said.
“If today, this country that occupies a sixth of the earth, on whose territory is concentrated tons of bacteriological, chemical and biological weapons, isn’t taken under control and questions aren’t asked about the responsibility of the man in charge and the government, that will be a danger for the whole world.”
Clarice, that’s right. Novosti is supported by the Russian government. (They were the primary source of pro-Serbia and Milosovic reporting in Yugoslavia during the NATO actions for Kosova; if I recall correctly, one of their TV stations in Belgrade was eventually bombed by NATO forces.)
“RIA Novosti’s clients include the presidential administration, Russian government, Federation Council, State Duma, leading ministries and government departments, administrations of Federation subjects, representatives of Russian and foreign business communities, diplomatic missions and public organizations.” http://en.rian.ru/about/
Clarice, thought you might like to see a very interesting bit from an older story on Scaramella:
“Nick Pisa, the first British journalist to interview Mr Scaramella following the Litvinenko poisoning, said: “The one thing I could not shake from my mind was how he spoke English with a slight Russian accent – being of southern Italian background myself I can recognise a Neapolitan accent and Professor Scaramella had no trace of one when he spoke English.
“His mannerisms were not like those of a typical southern Italian – there was very little hand waving and excitable chatter.
“Two days later, he held his now infamous press conference in Rome where he shattered illusions of James Bond style espionage by revealing he had eaten at Pizza Hut before meeting Litvinenko. Again this to me seemed strange – a true Neapolitan would never dream of having pizza anywhere but Naples, let alone set foot in Pizza Hut.
There are lots of things that just don’t add up.
It crossed my mind he may be a fantasist who likes to talk the talk, but now I’m not so sure. My firm belief is that he is a spy, but who for, exactly, is the question.”
Yet a bright light was shone on the relationship between Mr Scaramella and Mr Litvinenko, who was quoted in a previously unpublished interview as saying that he believed the professor threatened to have his brother evicted from Italy in order to secure his testimony before the commission.
He described how Mr Scaramella had paid for his flight and hotel expenses to give evidence.
Mr Litvinenko said: “We arranged that I would come to Italy in February 2004. Then around that time something unexplainable happened. I have a brother called Maxim who has lived in Italy for four years. A month before I was due to arrive Maxim called me in a desperate state.
“The police no longer recognised his education visa and were going to expel him and send him back to Russia, which meant certain death. I asked Mario for help. He said not to worry and that [prime minister Silvio] Berlusconi had taken a personal interest in my information and that it would be sorted out and Maxim had nothing to worry about.
“I gave the commission all the help they wanted and Maxim was given political asylum. Maxim told me Mario had gone to the police station in Rimini and spoken to the police. I’m certain the whole thing was done to convince me to co-operate.”
http://news.scotsman.com/uk.cfm?id=1787322006