Anbar is where the a change in US deployment strategy combined with Iraqis repulsed and fed up with al-Qaeda’s brutal tactics to create the original model for what would later be known as The Surge. Because it was the example for the broader Surge across Iraq Anbar is the first in province in Iraq is the place that has seen the results of this successful strategy play out the longest. The results in Anbar did ripple out through other provinces and Baghdad as a result of The Surge, but they lagged the Anbar results by a fairly consistent 6 months. So when we look at Anbar today we are seeing what Iraq in general could look like in 6 months from now.

A recent Dept of Defense briefing on Anbar paints a very hopeful and successful picture for Iraq in the coming months:

As you can see by the slide now showing, the number of enemy incidents against coalition and Iraqi forces continue to drop. We define an enemy incident as any type of attack or attempt(ed) attack, such as when we find unexploded improvised explosive device. This slide shows that the average daily (sic – weekly) number of enemy incidents in Anbar from the last December to this week — at the time last year, there were 460 enemy incidents. Compare that to 40 incidents we had this past week.

November marks the 10th straight month of decreasing enemy incidents. This positive trend is a testament to the hard work and dedication of the coalition and Iraqi security forces — (brief audio break) — work of Anbar’s political and tribal leadership.

Earlier this year, we averaged approximately 70 enemy incidents per day. Now our average is nine incidents per day, and dropping. More than half of these incidents are tracking unexploded IEDs, that we find them.

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The praise I offer for the Iraqi forces is merited. They are not empty words. As the coalition forces redeploy out of Al Anbar, Iraqi forces have taken up their battle space. The 1st Iraqi Army Division soldiers are working in the Lake Thar Thar region northwest of Baghdad.

They took over this area when the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit left last September. The Iraqi forces have shown a tremendous degree of skill and confidence in their operations. They have continued to capture key al Qaeda leaders, disrupt their operations, and unearth hidden weapons and cache sites. These operations and success in this is theirs and theirs alone.

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Q General, Jamie McIntrye with CNN. How confident are you that the positive trends you’re seeing are going to continue, and how soon do you think it will be before U.S. troops can leave Anbar entirely?

GEN. GASKIN: Well, I think that the positive trends are permanent. The Anbaris, in particular, have seen the brutal way in which al Qaeda operated. They don’t want to return to that. In fact, they have what’s known as blood feuds with al Qaeda; meaning, it takes about six generations to eliminate that type of strife. The Anbaris are tired of violence.

I have mentioned the concept of tribal and family pride for months, since March of ’07. When the Iraqis turned on al-Qaeda they did not do so lightly or with reserve. They will not take action and then have doubts years later while second guessing their choice. They are not fickled Democrats. When they make an oath they do so for more than one life, they do it for generations. And this is what al-Qaeda has reaped in Iraq. Over a century of blood oath war with the majority of Iraqis. There is no doubt Bush’s strategy face and defeat al-Qaeda in the heart of the Middle East is paying off enormous dividends.

And anyone who bet Iraq would be a defeat is going to be eating crow with destroyed credibility for many years to come as well. The good news will not stop just to save some fragile egos from facing the fact they choice the wrong side.