This media-touted last gasp of al-Qaeda in Iraq may be a farewell message, not an attempt to salvage a lost cause – because Iraq is a lost cause. al-Qaeda has basically organized the entire Iraqi population into a fierce and long term enemy. Their atrocities – used as PR stunts to get Western media attention and to intimidate the Iraqis – backfired. As I noted previously the backlash is deep, with generational blood feuds with al-Qaeda now in place across the country of Iraq:

Q General, Jamie McIntrye with CNN. How confident are you that the positive trends you’re seeing are going to continue, and how soon do you think it will be before U.S. troops can leave Anbar entirely?

GEN. GASKIN: Well, I think that the positive trends are permanent. The Anbaris, in particular, have seen the brutal way in which al Qaeda operated. They don’t want to return to that. In fact, they have what’s known as blood feuds with al Qaeda; meaning, it takes about six generations to eliminate that type of strife. The Anbaris are tired of violence.

The Muslim world got to see the atrocities al-Qaeda inflicted on fellow Muslims and is balking. Each new mass grave discovered adds to the army of Muslims rising against al-Qaeda. adds to the number of Muslims vowing retribution on al-Qaeda. They are getting press coverage all right – but I believe the response is not one of quaking fear but cold determination to exterminate these animals. That is view now shared by Western forces, Iraqi forces and most Iraqi Sunni leaders. We keep tearing down their forces in a steady and patient process of purging areas and pushing al-Qaeda out of Iraq.

al-Qaeda is still searching for a beach head state to begin its long promised and elusive take over of the Middle East and southern Europe. The modern caliphate. There are now some indications that al-Qaeda is shifting focus to Yemen – birth place of the Bin Laden clan:

An official who is a close observer of the Al Qaeda network believes that the organization has begun to shift its activities to Yemen, in addition to its strong presence in Iraq. The movement’s migration from Afghanistan is practically aiming to surround the Gulf region, which Al Qaeda considers its first and last goal.
The recent thwarted operations in Saudi Arabia and the arrests of terrorist cells is primary evidence that Al Qaeda has expanded, and perhaps shifted, its activities, which indicates that we are about to enter a third stage of the war on terror. The battle began early in Saudi Arabia but Al Qaeda suffered successive defeats and was thus forced to spread its wings abroad. It seems that after having been restricted, it has decided upon a change in strategy.

The aforementioned official believes that Yemen may replace Afghanistan as the incubator to breed, rally and train [terrorists]. In practice, Yemen could become the new Al Qaeda base  a label once reserved for Afghanistan. The official’s assumptions were confirmed by new activity carried out in the rugged mountains of Yemen that proved to be testing even for the skilled Yemeni forces that best knew their land.

al-Qaeda does not have the force numbers to ‘expand’. It has lost an enormous number of fighters in the fly-paper of Iraq. It lost a lot of forces in Afghanistan and each attempt to resurrect a presence there is met with more decimation. It has failed to take over Lebanon, make a move in Saudia Arabia, Jordan and Egypt and is a dwindling force in Algeria (but still dangerous) . If there is a movement to Yemen it al-Qaeda looking for some place to call home and regroup.