I find it blatantly obvious something is brewing in Pakistan. The US us sending 3200 Marines to Afghanistan to probably beef up the cordon along the Afghanistan border. And there continues to be news about US efforts inside Pakistan – very carefully worded news:

The commander of US forces in the Middle East said Wednesday the Pakistani military appears willing to work more closely with the US military on counter-insurgency efforts in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan.

Admiral William Fallon said the US military already has some training activities with the Pakistanis, but it would grow “in terms of focusing on the counter-insurgency, the unconventional problems that they are recognizing are really driving the program.”

…

Besides the Taliban, US intelligence has warned that Al-Qaeda has regrouped in the border areas and Defense Secretary Robert Gates last month warned that it appeared to be turning its focus on destabilizing nuclear-armed Pakistan.

“Based on the events of the past six or so months in Pakistan, they (the Pakistanis) see now that they have real problems internally, and those are emanating from the west,” Fallon said.

Hmmm…. What country lies to the West that could be a source of increased al-Qaeda activity in Pakistan over the last six months. Why I do believe that country might be Iraq, and it must mean al-Qaeda is retreating to their last hope for a regional sanctuary – a place sufficiently larger and populated to rebuild their army of Islamo Fascists. Seems like a reasonable interpretation of classic military communication tactic of vaguely hinting at what is happening behind the classified scene.

Fallon also gave an upbeat assessment of the situation in Afghanistan despite an upsurge in violence and the emergence of what officials say is a classic insurgency.

“Some say things are going to Hell in a handbasket and I’m trying to put a finger in the dike,” Fallon said. “I think its the other way altogether. We’re going to try to take advantage of where we are and spring forward to much better security next year.”

He is discussing coordinated operations between Afghanistan and Pakistan who have not yet been completely coordinated and in synch in the past. But he is optimistic.

Then come out the carefully worded statements from Pakistan about US activity in Pakistan:

Pakistan on Wednesday warned against any strike by foreign troops on al-Qaeda militants on its soil, saying that it would be treated like an “enemy act.”

“If anyone takes action it would be seen as an enemy act and treated like this,” Foreign Office spokesman Mohammad Sadiq told reporters here.

His remarks came days after President Pervez Musharraf said in a media interview that no unauthorised operation would be allowed in the Pakistani territory by the US-led coalition forces in Afghanistan.

Emphasis mine and I see this caveat all the time – it is only “unauthorised” operations that are barred. They never say US activity is not or will not be happening – as long as it is authorized.

Make no mistake about it, the forces building in the region are quite large, as Andy McCarthy recently noted at NRO:

At an FPM syposium last year, Steve Schippert (of ThreatsWatch) reported that “the Taliban-al-Qaeda alliance is believed to have amassed combined-forces strength of about 200,000 fighters throughout the FATA and NWFP region.” What’s more, they continue to churn out more and more at the 29 training camps Bill refers to above. By contrast, as the Washington Post reported yesterday, NATO has a force of about 54,000. Half are U.S. forces; of the remainder, many are restricted to non-combat roles — the Brits, Dutch and Canadians honorably excepted.

I doubt the force numbers are that high, but even if they were they cannot compare to US firepower and technology. There are also 100,000 well trained Pakistani troops cordoning off the southern border of the region into ‘modern’ Pakistan. Finally, large forces are only good if you can deploy them in massive numbers. You can nip away a large force in bite sized chunks quite rapidly. Anyway, the good news is we have the world’s largest concentration of Islamo Fascists surrounded in the tribal areas of Pakistan. The fish are in the barrel, I just wonder when the shooting will start.

And one has to fold into this a question of what is al-Qaeda and their Taliban sycophants fighting for? When they killed Benazir Bhutto (according to Scotland Yard) they were trying to stop the elections. But I think they may be fighting for survival. I mean why take a frontier fort from the Pakistanis and then abandon it days later? Who knows what military strategy they are using – but it looks like one from Milton-Bradley:

Islamist insurgents have withdrawn from a Pakistani military fort they captured near the Afghan border, but 15 soldiers are still missing after the rebel attack, the army said Thursday.
Several hundred militants armed with rocket launchers and Kalashnikov rifles stormed the remote fort at Sararogha town in the South Waziristan tribal district early Wednesday in a major setback for Pakistani forces.

The battle for the fort left seven troops and up to 50 rebels dead, with 20 more soldiers initially reported as missing.

“Miscreants have withdrawn from Sararogha Fort. Five more Frontier Corps troops have reached a nearby village,” said a brief military statement, adding that further details would be issued later.

Taking large casualties to gain an objective and then giving it up makes no sense. If you look at a map of the region the militants are split into two camps with relatively peaceful areas between them.

The fighting from last fall was in the Swat region of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) – at the very eastern end of the troubled region. The fighting now is in the North and South Waziristan Agencies of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), on the far western end of the region. There has been minor unrest in Bajaur and Kurram – but things have failed to ignite. So with their forces split into two like this it is difficult for the terrorists to provide support to each other. Their western and eastern fronts stand alone. And news is now out that the western front in Swat is pretty much over and has dealt the militants a huge loss:

Pakistan’s army said it took control of the Swat Valley near Afghanistan after a three-month operation against pro-Taliban Islamic fighters.

“Troops have pushed out the miscreants from the Swat Valley to an adjoining isolated area” in the mountains, Major General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, the director-general of military operations, said at a briefing yesterday, according to the official Associated Press of Pakistan.

Thirty-six soldiers and nine civilians were killed during the offensives, the general said, without saying how many militants died. More than 615 people were arrested, 100 of whom are still being detained, he added.

Reports from the resort area (can’t find the link right now) painted a picture of happy locals, glad to be free of the oppressive terrorists. And there are signs all over the region is not heading into blind servitude to these gathering forces, and in fact may be turning away from them. Anyway, the tea leaves of the region seem to be pointing to a major offensive soon to be sprung on the gathering remnants of al-Qaeda and the Taliban.