Feb 08 2008
Divided Dems Heading For Crack-Up
Now that the GOP side of the Presidential election is decided (and we can ignore that race for a long while) the Democrat side of the equation is heading into a disaster – a split party. I seriously doubt either of the two junior senators will take a VP slot under the other, and there is good reason neither should. My guess is Hillary may stay marginally ahead in the delegate count through to the convention. But Obama will continue to swamp her in fundraising, showing a different kind of strength and base than hers. So both will be fighting it out for months and then the worst thing of all will happen (which is what Romney graciously let the GOP avoid): a brokerd convention.
You know it is bad when even DNC Chair Howard Dean can”t hide his concern with the pending disaster:
Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean on Wednesday voiced concern over the prospect of a brokered convention at the end of the party’s White House nominating contests.
“The idea that we can afford to have a big fight at the convention and then win the race in the next eight weeks, I think, is not a good scenario,” Dean said according to excerpts of an interview with NY1 television.In state nominating contests so far, no clear winner has emerged among Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the party’s nomination ahead of November’s presidential vote to replace George W. Bush in the White House.
“I think we will have a nominee sometime in the middle of March or April. But if we don’t, then we’re going to have to get the candidates together and make some kind of an arrangement,” said Dean, who failed in his bid for the party’s nomination in 2004.
And the only way to make that deal work is for the party elite Super Delegates to take the decision out of the hand of Democrat primary voters:
Here’s a nightmare for the Democrats: The party’s bigwigs, rather than its voters, may end up choosing the presidential nominee.
If neither Illinois Sen. Barack Obama nor New York Sen. Hillary Clinton manages to pull decisively ahead in the next few weeks, the nomination could depend on the convention votes of 796 party leaders, or superdelegates, who are free to ignore the preferences of Democratic voters.
“To the public, that looks like a throwback to the old, corrupt system of smoke-filled rooms,” says University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato.
Adds Norm Ornstein of the conservative American Enterprise Institute: “The party pols could make the decision.”
If Obama is the one who will be pushed to the side (or even to the VP slot) his voters are going to be disenfranchised, bitter and I would bet bolt the Dems. Obama has new voters, young people, high energy voters and the majority of African Americans. They are running high and they will crash hard when their efforts and hopes are dashed by the political machine.
Because that political machine is run by the Clinton family. People outside the DC beltway don’t know how things work inside the beltway. The Clintons have their people all through out the Democrat machine. They raise money. And they can squash a young congressional career. Hillary wants this bad and it is the dems fault they set up this whack system of no winner take all states. Obama already has enough delegates to go to the convention. The damage is set to be done to his supporters no matter what, now that he tied Clinton on Super Tuesday.
Peggy Noonan asks today if the Clintons can lose gracefully, or will they go for the ugly win. Personally I find that a pretty dumb question – the Clintons win and they do whatever it takes to win. They are in this for themselves, always have been and always will.
The machine verses the maverick. Election years have themes and that seems to be the theme for this year. On the GOP side the maverick (who I still have troubles with) led an honorable fight and rallied a base that has shifted its focus away from the fringes. He can also peel off Obama voters. The Dems are doing things differently. They are going for the bruising street fight for months on end.
I can’t imagine why Obama would want to go to the White House with the Clintons. It would ruin any chance he would ever have of running on his own. They are sleaze balls and would tarnish his reputation beyond recognition.
It will be very interesting to see how the Clintons smash the first viable black candidate for President. They will not give up.
I can’t really put my finger on it. The Dems keep saying that their dilemma is that they have two great candidates and would be happy with either winning. It is either true or false. But, if it gets ugly near the end between the two candidates…..then their voters are going to be mad about the ugliness (it goes against the first rule of being a Dem–though shalt not say or do anything against another Dem).
The only thing I feel quite certain of…..is that if Obama is not on the ticket all heck is gonna break lose.
I wonder… Any chance those ‘disregarded delegates’ from Michigan and Florida might be put back into play? Or at least a messy fight to recognise them?