VA: McCain Big Win (+8-9%), Obama Crushing Win (+~27%)

There’s a minor battle brewing in VA. It seems the social conservatives have come out in large numbers in the western part of the state (more my roots than outside DC where I live). Exit polls show over 50% of GOP voters think McCain is not conservative enough – well duh! Count me in! But he is also more electable at the moment. A large number also say they can support him, so that shows well for the GOP.

And that is the big news of the night. Obama is walking away with this one (maybe over 60%), but the GOP turnout is larger than anyone would have expected and will be a sign of what is possible if the two sides join together. Here in NOVA, Dem turnout in our little precinct (which is quite conservative) is maybe 2-3 Dems. But with the large conservative turnout outside NOVA my bet is VA will show the GOP competitive with the Dems when the full governing coalition gets out and votes. My prediction is McCain wins by at least 5% and the GOP shows it does have the voters to beat even Obama if he wins the Dem nomination.

7:50 PM Eastern: Many voters (my daughter included) are stuck in lines waiting to vote. The ice storm that hit NOVA and snarled traffic will lower the vote there and reduce McCain’s and Hillary’s numbers. 15% in and there is only 2,000 votes (2%) separate McCain and Huckabee.

7:55 PM Eastern: Reader Terrye was kind enough to find the link to the VA state results. With around 35% precincts reporting in McCain has jumped ahead by 2400 votes and 2%.

8:00 PM Eastern: OK, 40% of precincts reporting and McCain now leads by 4,000 votes and 3.3%

8:04 PM Eastern: McCain’s lead continues to hold with 41% report in he has 4,000 lead which equals 3%. It seems Huckabee’s strongest areas are reporting early, with McCain’s areas coming later. Apparently the big GOP wave may not materialize.

8:08 PM Eastern: Obama takes DC – no surprise there. Could be 3 to 1.

8:11 PM Eastern: McCain grows lead with 46% reporting in. He has 71,833 to Huckabee’s 66,084, which translates into a 5,000 vote lead and almost 4%. BTW, dem turnout is swamping GOP turnout – (269K-D, 151K-R)

8:15 PM Eastern: Not sure where Fox is getting their numbers – but they have it a lot closer than VA – who counts the actual votes. With 50% precincts in McCain has a 5300 vote lead which translates into a 3% lead.

8:20 PM Eastern: 54% reporting McCain has 4400 vote lead which is 2%.

8:24 PM Eastern: 60% reporting, McCain 97,082 (47%) – Huckabee 92,407 (44.6%).

8:30 PM Eastern: 63% reporting, McCain 106,010 (47.4%) – Huckabee 98,586 (44%). McCain’s vote lead is now 7,500. Fox calls it for McCain – winning very well and the margin will be wider than now. Seems the exit polls were off.

8:37 PM Eastern: 70% in on the Dem side and Obama has a 64-35 whooping of Hillary. Not sure she can hold on with this kind of beating.

8:46 PM Eastern: In case you did not hear MD has delayed closing their polls until 9:30 PM so we will not get results for that state until then.

8:50 PM Eastern: For some reason VA has stopped updating the GOP summary page so I am going to go to the ABCNews page which shows McCain with a 9,000 vote lead and 3% lead. I still think this will grow to 4%, maybe 5% by the end of the night.

8:59 PM Eastern: McCain’s lead grows to over 10,000 votes with 65% in – translates to 4% lead (48-44).

9:07 PM Eastern: With 68% in McCain has 151,383 (48%) – Huckabee 133,762 (43%). Nice win.

9:10 PM Eastern: Well the VA finally updated and jumped ahead. McCain has 157,274 (49.5%) and Huckabee has 130,546 (41.1%). Wasn’t that close after all – 8% lead is pretty good actually.

9:22 PM Eastern: 85% reporting McCain has 167,098 (50%) – Huckabee 137,811 (41%). These are from VA itself and differ dramatically from what the media is showing.

9:30 PM Eastern: McCain beat Huckabee by a larger margin than Bush beat McCain in 2000 – historic perspective. Right now 87% in and McCain has a 50-41% win. McCain won MD handily, and Obama as well because Fox has called them both the second polls closed.

10:o0 PM Eastern: Wrapping it up here. McCain looks to be heading towards a 49/50-41 win (90% reporting) in VA and an even bigger one in MD. Sure he wins DC too. So both Obama and McCain rack up impressive wins – but Obama is heading to a party crack-up why McCain is heading to a clear nomination. I hope Huckabee stays around – he is really good for the party and McCain.