Jun 24 2008
Floaters Unite!
I guess I am proud floater who drifts right more often than naught, at least according to the Brits:
The british have a more sophisticated and accurate lexicon to describe their elections than we crass Americans do. U.S. politicians aggressively “run for election,” while British candidates more calmly “stand for office.” And what we call “swing voters,” as though they swing back and forth between candidates like a rusty screen door in a midsummer storm, are more accurately defined by the British term “floating voters” because they gently float between candidates — occasionally stopping at “undecided” to catch their political breath.
Floaters play an important role in every close electoral contest, but in races in which high turnout is expected — as is the case for the 2008 presidential contest — they are absolutely vital.
2008 is the year of the centrists.  The electorate is pretty adamant that it wants nothing to do with the fringes and its purists ideologues.  After years of war America is moving away from heated debate from extremist positions.
This will play well for John McCain and really cripple Obama. Â The reasoning is simple and clear. Â McCain won his nomination by defeating all the ‘true’ and ‘truer’ conservative candidates. Â He won the GOP nomination by being who he is – there is no need for McCain to ‘pivot’ for the general election.
Uber-Liberal Obama has no such luck. Â He won his nomination by being the more liberal candidate with the more far left views. Â While both Clinton and Obama were liberals compared to the nation, Obama is backed by those on the far left more than Clinton by far. Â That means Obama has to do a major pivot now that the general election has begun. And his pivot has, and will, be very jarring to his far left base – not to mention how it will sow doubts on his sincerity among the very centrists he needs to con (er, … I meant ‘convince’) to win the election.
We see the jarring begin already as Obama flip-flopped on campaign finance and FISA legislation. Â The GOP is going to force him and the democrats to make the impossible choice between far left positions and centrist positions in vote after vote in Congress. Â It will be a slow drip, drip, drip that will erode the excitement of the far left and create serious doubt about Obama’s sincerity (which is already pretty destroyed). Â Should be an interesting summer and fall.
It does seem as if Obama is trying to move center. It makes me wonder about some of the polling. I would think that if he was really sure of a lead, he would stick to his original positions.
And I think that McCain is a good candidate for the times. I was looking at powerline yesterday and while they were particularly hard on Obama, they were complaining about McCain’s energy policy speech. Specifically they mentioned his support of flex fuel engines and higher cafe standards.
Well you know, most people want to see stuff like that. They want a myriad of ideas and innovation. They do not want to stop all drilling, at the same time they do not think that policies like higher cafe standards are unduly intrusive. As for flex fuel engines, well they will not be alternative fuels if they can’t be used. The engines come first.
But this is just one example of why someone like McCain can have an edge.
Obama is not willing to support hardly any new drilling. That is not a tenable position.
“He won the GOP nomination by being who he is – there is no need for McCain to ‘pivot’ for the general election.”
Are you serious? McCain has flip-flopped on about every major issue – Bush’s tax cuts, torture, gitmo, off-shore drilling, etc. Here is a link that provides a detailed explanation of 10 issues that McCain has flip-flopped in just the last two weeks. http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/06/16/mccain-sets-a-new-record-10-flip-flops-in-two-weeks/
There are many more examples. I don’t know who you (or McCain for that matter) think you are fooling when it is so easy with today’s technology to prove McCain’s position on several major policy issues is directly contradictory to earlier positions he took.
While Obama has changed his position on some issues for the general election, there are two major differences between Obama and McCain. First, McCain has done it on many more issues and the more significant issues. Second, Obama is doing it to pivot to the center while McCain is doing it to pivot to the right. It is McCain that is getting in trouble because he has to tack to the right so that conservative Republicans, whom are not enthusiastic about him, actually show up to vote. McCain’s greatest asset – his tag as a principled straight-talker – is quickly eroding as he continues to say and do whatever he thinks the GOP wants to hear.
I just wonder if the general public knows Obama is so far left. The media sure isn’t telling them. And Obama’s hopey changey has been his theme song all along. Little bits of stuff has gotten through but the majority I think not. I do hope the RNC will put aside their gentlemenly tactics and tell the public the truth about Obama.
Obama is getting concerned. That is why he is giving the impression he is center right. But he messed up big time by saying James Dobson was making things up when he critized Obama. That won’t go over well with the evangelicals. Calling a respected man of God a liar. All the polls have been heavily democrat almost 2 to 1. That is why Obama’s numbers are so high. And he knows it.
Hi AJ,
can you comment on the polls? Are they rigged too?
When might we see Obama’s numbers slide, IF they are going
to slide?
There was a good article over at American Thinker yesterday
explaining the three types of leftists and how Obama uses them
to oscillate between hard left and nice left, but I think it will sail
over the heads of average voters.
Here is something truly weird.
AOL is conducting a weekly poll, reset every Friday,
McCain vs Obama.
Last week they had 400,000 votes, McCain won.
This week McCain 61% – Obama 39%
All states are RED.
You’d think that as it’s an internet poll, the obamabots would have
an advantage. Seems not.
But what does this large sample size say about the MSM polls?
We all know the MSM news is totally untrustworthy, but surely the
polls are fair….. Surely?
or perhaps not.
Cast your vote too:
http://news.aol.com/political-machine/straw-poll
you are for illegal wiretapping, torture, and un-ending war. you consider diplomacy appeasement, and deny climate change. you support policies that have lead to huge deficits and big government. and you think you are a “floater”? do you have an ounce of self-awareness?
I am with you on this AJ and I think the numbers break down like this. Of the eligible voting population only say 60% actually vote (probably overly optimistic unless we were in Iraq or Afghanistan where voting matters). Let’s say the split between Dumbs and Redumbs is even and make up 1/3 of the voters in spite of the shrillness which they level on us (the remaining 1/3 is the independents—i.e. the floaters or as I say the Americans). To win an election either convert the non voters or appeal to the independents. A real leader would isolate the extremists on both sides and be able to claim the middle ground where the vast majority of this country is.
norm:
You are for terrorists killing people. See, two can play at this game.
Dave:
One thing about that Latimes poll I noted: 22% of the people polled were Republicans. Democrats were 40%. The rest were Independents with a majority leaning Democrat. So that means that Dems out numbered Repubs by about 2 to 1. I know Democrats have an advantage right now, but not that much. And even with that advantage Obama did not make it to 50%. Meanwhile Gallup has them both at 45 today. And yet both polls claim a margin of error of about 3%. Go figure.
The AOL poll, which is not remotely scientific, has McCain with a 13% lead. I think it is as reliable as the LATimes poll giving Obama 13%. The Newsweek poll had the same kind of demographics with a huge Dem advantage in the weighting. Of course they justify that by saying there are more Democrats. Yeah right.
Am i the only who think it’s beyond absurd that we have President candidates spending their time opining about the design of the internal combustion engine?
Why nothing about the role of the Federal Govt vis a vis the States? What our Foreign Policy posture and doctrine should be, etc..
I could go on, but that’s the nugget of what I wanted to say.
Are you serious? McCain has flip-flopped on about every major issue – Bush’s tax cuts, torture, gitmo, off-shore drilling, etc.
Times are rapidly changing.. as long as he flip-flops in the right direction , that’s fine with me.
Flip Flops may not matter.
This Israeli news site, a legitimate one, has a very interesting
article on Obama’s faked birth certificate and why he might not be
eligible legally to be President,
http://web.israelinsider.com/Articles/Politics/12939.htm