Sep 04 2008
Obama Lost His Bounce Before Palin’s Blockbusting Speech
We now know why the liberal left has become so unhinged, they must be looking at some internal polls and the news apparently is frightening, right down to their muck-raking cores. The reason I say this is a CBS/NYTimes poll is out and it shows a stunning down turn for Barack Obama – he has lost his 8% bounce against McCain-Palin, and that was BEFORE Palin’s knock out speech. What Obama and the liberals must be wondering is whether this is the extent of the damage they will take, or is this just a snap shot of a poll crash that has not even played out.
The poll shows that Obama-Biden has lost ground even compared to their 3% lead they had going into their convention! After the convention they had a 5% bounce (about what I predicted), but it has all evaporated and the polling Mon-Wed (which leaves almost no post Palin speech effects).
Other bad news in the poll is the fact it is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters. It also shows this drop even while there is a significant ‘energy’ difference between the Obama side and the McCain side. Polls of likely voters typically show two things: (1) they are closer to the actual outcomes and (2) they tend to shift towards the GOP 3-5%. If this pattern holds (and it may not in this wild election year) that would mean McCain-Palin could actually be 3-5% ahead right now.
McCain also still doubles Obama in the Commander-in-Chief category with only 24% of Americans think Obama would be an effective CinC, while McCain garners 46%. Obama lost 5% in this key category. Among Independents Obama lost 6% as well. And surprising to me is the fact McCain-Palin was ahead among white women (44-37%). Finally, the mix between Indies, Dems and Reps was 35, 35 and 31 – which appears to be reasonable, but assumes the best case mix for the Dems they could hope for this year.
With this data I think it will only be a matter of a few days before we start to see the fall in other polls. I am actually looking forward to see the next snapshot of this poll which I presume will be not long after the GOP convention wraps up today. More here.
Could some tell me why the guys at CNN talk about supporters of a Republican candidate as the “religious right”? Surely many people who believe in smaller government, fiscal responsibility, can do spirit of Americans, compassion for those who can’t help themselves and love this country, are not all “religious right”.
Yes, Kathie, it is pathetic how they try to shape the narrative vs. actually just REPORT. Lazy, manipulative bunch…shameless, too.
But best of all, the whole world is getting to see them for what they are: corrupt. I can’t wait for Sarah to stick it to ’em again…with that beautiful smile of hers.
[…] Daily Tracking Poll has also detected the loss of the Obidenama convention bounce I predicted yesterday was coming when I saw the CBS/NY Times poll. Â From a 5 point lead Obidenama have fallen to a 2 point lead […]
[…] Larry Sabato was just on Fox (12:24 PM, 09_07_09) saying he has inside information that McCain/Palin will see a bigger bump coming out of the GOP convention than Obama, and at least one poll will be coming out showing McCain/Palin ahead by more than the margin of error (my guess this is the CBS/NY Times poll I posted on previously). […]
[…] I predicted a while back the CBS/NY Times poll would end up big for McCain/Palin when Obama had lost his bounce before Palin’s speech had aired. With this data I think it will only be a matter of a few […]