Sep 14 2008
McCain Hits 50% In Rassmussen Tracking
McCain-Palin are doing something right – they just hit the 50% mark in the Rasmussen Daily Trackin Polling, still holding a 3% lead. Â
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows John McCain reaching the 50% level of support for the first time since Barack Obama wrapped up the Democratic Presidential Nomination. McCain retains a three-point advantage for the third straight day, 50% to 47%Â
What could means is the undecided voters, which ran has high as 10-12% in many polls, are flocking to McCain-Palin. The evidence is in the drop off in Democrat support for Obama:
McCain is supported by 90% of Republicans and has a six-point edge among unaffiliated voters. Eighty-two percent (82%) of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama.
This has all the signs of a really bad year for the Democrats.
MSM’s mantra has been from the beginning of the Bush administration that he is dumb, a liar, religious, can’t put a sentence together we know the script. Yet we reelected him again in 2004 (much to MSM’s horror). That is 51% of us did. Were we worried about loosing the war in Iraq? Yes. Did we want to win it? Yes. On a gut level we know that war is hard, we win some battles and loose others, but in the end if we win that’s a good thing.
MSM has been so insistent that this President is bad on every level that those who support the President have been drowned out, or pushed underground.
MSM is so out of touch with the regular American people, that they don’t realize that mocking us doesn’t help their cause, Democrats. We let MSM prattle on knowing in our hearts of hearts that Bush is a good, decent, honorable man. So who is Sarah Palin? She is the all American who unleashed the pent up energy of us underground voters who know goodness when we see it. And by God we will not let MSM do to her what they did to Bush, not this time we say.
From the graphs and line items on Pollster which covers a wider swath of polls it looks like Obama is picking up a little and McCain a lot from 3rd party people.
Nader is the big loser with about half his support gone.
Barr and McKinney holding in the cellar and steady.
Looks like a combo of third party fading and undecided types getting off the fence.
Don’t know if it’s available to non-subscribers, but the really big news in the latest Rasmussen is the jump in those voters who are “certain” of their choice.
The top numbers stayed the same (McCain 48-45) while the “with leaners” (obviously the softest numbers) went from 49-46 to 50-47. While the number ’50’ is evocative, and so got the attention, I was more interested in this:
Among likely voters who are certain they will not change their minds between now and election day, McCain is now ahead 44-39 (up from 42-39 yesterday and 41-40 the day before).
Given the 2-3% of the electorate who will vote Libertarian or Green or “Donald Duck” write-ins… when that “certain” number reaches 48ish, the election is basically over. (Though even “certain” voters can change their mind, but they’re much less likely to than the “leaners”.)
Having said all that — let’s not get overconfident. Overconfidence among Dems got them stuck with Obama. Overconfidence among the GOP could lead parts of the base to start issuing demands. And those could sink McCain-Palin really, really quickly. And that’s before the MSM starts to get even more dishonest, and before the debates — moderated by liberal MSM folks like Gibson….. and it’s before ACORN really gets started on whatever Obama gave them all that money for….
It’s not over yet. This is going to get ugly.