Thanks to Lori Byrd of Polipundit for a great referral. She found a place to watch the WVA senate seat play out might be at Don Surber’s which should be insightful. I have many relatives in WVA so I understand the people out in the hinterlands, but I do not know the state politics indepth. Don Suber apparently does. He helped break the latest story on Byrd’s dismal polling numbers recently (Ed Morrissey did reference Don Suber with a hat tip I should have followed, but Lori’s comments definitely pushed me to check out the site).

Today he is tracking the democrat response to these poll numbers and what they could mean. As I mentioned in the earlier post, Byrd has been in office so long a poll trying to precisely track numbers in a year where there is a major shift in opinion is not likely. Polls rely too much on models gleaned from past years’ voting trends (which is why the Bush election years have befuddled many a pollster).

Anyway, Don explains why the democrat spin is ridiculous because previous polls showing a slightly larger margin that were dismissed then, now are being claimed to be accurate. Talk about your fantasies. Shifting alibis do not make a good PR campaign. The tend to engender mistrust from the people.

It [dem party] showed its 10-point difference poll which matches the Republican poll, which I broke in print in my April 14 column six weeks ago. At the time, many scoffed at Capito being within 10 points.

Now, even Democratic officials are saying she’s within 10 points. My, my. And this for a man who has never won a Senate election with less than a 30-point lead.