May 27 2009
Are We On The Verge Of War With NK?
North Korea has just raised the stakes again today, junking the Korean War Armistice and declaring itself at war with the West:
North Korea threatened a military response to South Korean participation in a U.S.-led program to seize weapons of mass destruction, and said it will no longer abide by the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War.
“The Korean People’s Army will not be bound to the Armistice Agreement any longer,†the official Korean Central News Agency said in a statement today. Any attempt to inspect North Korean vessels will be countered with “prompt and strong military strikes.†South Korea’s military said it will “deal sternly with any provocation†from the North.
I have no doubt suspicious ships are steaming to ports in the Middle East as we speak, to test the Obama administration and the West. And because it seems Kim Il Jong is deliberately heading for a military showdown, now is not the time to be nit-picking the Obama administration – it needs our full support so that North Korea gets the message we are united and will take whatever action is necessary to halt any nuclear weapons of mass destruction from getting into more of the wrong (and suicidal) hands.
North Korea has been a problem across three administrations now, from Clinton to Bush to Obama. This has not been a left or right problem. Each time we have attempted to work a solution without going to war. Each time North Korea has thumbed its nose at the international community.
If there ever was a repeat of the days of Hitler and his threat to humanity, NK is the closest example we have seen since the early decades of the last century. There is broad and legitimate concern:
Russia is taking security measures as a precaution against the possibility tension over North Korea could escalate into nuclear war, news agencies quoted officials as saying on Wednesday.
Interfax quoted an unnamed security source as saying a stand-off triggered by Pyongyang’s nuclear test on Monday could affect the security of Russia’s far eastern regions, which border North Korea.
North Korea has in the past pushed the limits and then backed down. But the challenge to its ability to ship any material it wants without question or challenge is a new wrinkle we cannot bow down to. We need to stop deadly shipments if they are attempted. The problem is nuclear weapons technology and elements are not large enough to detect with certainty. And if NK wants to stage a confrontation, they could send ships out with all sorts of bogus indications of nuclear material just to draw the world into a confrontation.
I would not be surprised if we have to stop ships which looked to be suspicious, only to find they were decoys. This will call NK’s bluff – if they are bluffing. We need to support the current administration against this threat. It is in all of our best interests to make show a unified and determined front so as to make it clear to NK what price it will pay.
To do otherwise would be a serious gamble, one which is just not worth the political gamesmanship.
It’s all fun and games til that first nuke goes boom.
I told someone within the last year or so that I thought we’d live long enough to see a nuke fired in anger. They laughed, and said I was out of mind.
Wonder if they’re laughing today?
We need to support the current administration against this threat. It is in all of our best interests to make show a unified and determined front so as to make it clear to NK what price it will pay.
Yes, yes, that’s all well good and a great start. I’m left wondering if the current administration will stand with us to show a unified and determined front, or if they’ll simply roll over and issue a strongly worded comdenmation.
Odds are: Obama blinks, Norks don’t, and the rest of us get stuck holding a bag.
Condemnation. I’m blaming the new keyboard.
I don’t think the policy of “mutual assured destruction” will be of any use with North Korea… Kim Jong Il isn’t exactly in the best shape mentally.
I think what is important is to watch what the Chinese do. They fought beside NK against the UN in the 1950s, and they are NK’s biggest trading partner. But I doubt they want Pyongyang to start anything either.
What does NK gain by all this?
Either way, I hope China and Russia come around so the UN can take some kind of strong action (not just words).
Interesting the question is … will China help this time?
After all the ONLY reason that Korea and Vietnam turned into such long wars is because of Chinese troops and supplies.
Without troops from China, the original Korean War would have been much much shorter and the North would not even exist today.
If China does not help this time, then South Korea could roll right over top of the North.
Froggon 27 May 2009 at 2:15 pm
What does NK gain by all this?
What did Germany gain by WW2?
A mad man does not look at it the same way a sane person would. Look at history there is one example after another.
Frog… I think they have a website called “buyanuc.com” … Seriously, this is an export as well as a bludgeon to get more aid…
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Prediction… NK will eventually go for foreign aid $$ in exchange for “return to talks” or maybe “shutting down” the program…
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Keep an eye on Japan’s reaction…
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As you know [?] the long range missile that NK launched awhile ago traveled directly OVER Japan…
Here is what I wonder,
This crisis happened because South Korea stated to intend to join
the naval stop and search program for the NoKo ships.
Why would they do this? Seriously, there is no need and South Korea
has been very afraid of NoKo. It is said that NoKo artillery can put
five hundred thousand shells an hour down on Seoul. In past, South
Korea has only accepted “engagement” with the NoKo. The “Sunshine
Policy”.
Now the ships will take the nuclear bombs to the Middle East. That is
no threat to South Korea though it will be a big threat to places like
New York, Washington, and London so other navies will sort this
situation whether or not South Korea joins in.
But South Korea has put itself directly in large danger by saying what they
did say. So why? I have to guess that they did not wake up one day and
say Hola! We must halt those bad hombres of the North!. I suggest to you
that they were “asked” to issue this statement and have been given
some kind of a guarantee.
So why bring things to a head right now?
Because maybe the nuclear shipments have already taken place
and time is no longer available.
AJ,
Maybe the answer is simply there isn’t enough food for the NORK security forces?
The worse time of any famine is the late spring and early summer planting time as there is little food and lots of physical work involved.
Since most NORK security forces need to either steal food or grow it themselves, the implications are grim for the regime if the NORK government is that short on food.