Jun 22 2009
Irresistible Force Meets Immovable Object – End Game In Iran
The stage is set, the pieces are in motion, the bets are “all in” for both sides now in Iran. The freedom fighters have their martyr in the form of a young 27 year woman shot down in the streets. Her blood drenched face a rallying point for a nation. Their leaders have called for continuation of the protests, have called on the regime leaders to dialogue. They are not going away until they get some of that Hope and Change. This is the irresistible force
On the other side is the Iranian thugocracy , now fully in the open without any pretext of a perfect Islam guiding the hands of those in power. They have admitted to massive voting irregularities across the country, they only quibble on how massive. Their Basij thugs have been the ones on the front lines killing their people, but now the Revolutionary Guard has determined they must act before the freedom marchers win. They have threatened even more violence against their Muslims in the name of Allah. And now, those who were vetted by the Mullahs as worthy to lead the nation of Iran and, therefore, be on the ballot for President are claimed to be criminals and terrorists.
The latest actions of the Iranian Regime are acts of desperation. They have rightfully lost the support of the people, and the ruling clerics are splintering. The efforts to stop the momentum of the uprising is reaching a violent crescendo. And the government security forces are starting to fall. Gateway Pundit had this post up with video of the Basij getting their just deserts.
And Andrew Sullivan has this post up showing the security forces trying to hold back demonstrators – with some tense moments of a stand off. But at some point the will of the government forces breaks and they run in retreat as the crowds run in advance.
If this repeats itself across Iran, there will be a new day on Earth. A new nation will have a chance to throw off its oppressors and have a chance at freedom. We are possibly witnessing a major historic moment play out in Iran.
Major Update: Has the Muslim-on-Muslim violence hit the point where there is no way for the current Iranian Regime to survive in its current form?
Folks, this is huge. Huge. A report from Saudi Arabia’s al-Arabiya, Iranian clerics seek supreme leader alternative, indicates that Rafsanjani is seeking to eliminate the Supreme Leader. Not just the man, but the position and role presiding over Iranian politics and the Iranian society.
Religious leaders are considering an alternative to the supreme leader structure after at least 13 people were killed in the latest unrest to shake Tehran and family members of Ayatollah Rafsanjani were arrested amid calls by former President Mohammad Khatami for the release of all protesters.
Iran’s religious clerks in Qom and members of the Assembly of Experts, headed by former President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, are mulling the formation of an alternative collective leadership to replace that of the supreme leader, sources in Qom told Al Arabiya on condition of anonymity.
That is a serious turn of events. Let’s hope momentum begins to build behind it. What is most interesting is the effect the democracy in Iraq is having on these discussions:
The discussions have taken place in a series of secret meetings convened in the holy city of Qom and included Jawad al-Shahristani, the supreme representative of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who is the foremost Shiite leader in Iraq.
An option being considered is the resignation of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Iran’s president following condemnation by the United States and other European nations for violence and human rights violations against unarmed protestors.
…
Sistani’s appeal does not end at the Iraqi border, as Iranians increasingly observe his leadership with interest and fondness. Some are “intrigued by the more freewheeling experiment in Shi’ite empowerment taking place across the border in Iraq,” which is fundamentally different in approach than the Iranian theocratic brand of dictated observance and obedience. The Boston Globe’s Anne Barnard reports that within Tehran’s own central bazaar, “an increasing number of merchants are sending their religious donations, a 20 percent tithe expected from all who can spare it, to Iraq’s most senior Shi’ite cleric.”
Clearly, the same cleric in Iraq who disabled Moqtada Sadr’s Mahdi Militia movement and supported the Iraqi democracy is playing a key role in how Iran may get out of its current bloody turmoil. If this comes to pass, it will not be just Obama’s speech in Cairo, but the stage that was set in the region, at a huge cost of blood and treasure, by President George Bush as well.
It’ll be a new day – but I fear not in the way you hope.
I suspect that this will be the final, incontrovertible proof of the moral cowardice of the Obama regime.
Because I have no doubt that he will leave the protestors hanging in the wind.
First, I DO believe that America should be saying and doing much more than it has so far. This country is still the world leader, the example that all other nations look to. But in all fairness, Mike, American influence is not going to determine whether this movement fails or succeeds. This is going to be played out in the streets and halls of Tehran, and there is very little we can do to influence things except watch from the sidelines.
I am heartened by the stories of countries that have thrown off dictatorships, but also disheartened by examples such as Myanmar, where a powerful military has been able to use force to crush a popular democratic movement.
A few so far have been willing to die for their freedom. Are a million Iranians willing to die for their freedom? Because that’s what it’s going to take.
I’m not so sure. For the next few weeks, all we can do is to provide moral support – but that is worth something in itself.
But in the longer term, we can provide funding, communications, and (if necessary) weapons. Classic successful insurgency tactics.
Personally I expect a gradual breakdown (over the course of 6 months, maybe?) of the religious authority, but with the replacement being some form of Republican Guard Junta leading to direct military rule with some yet-to-be-named puppet out in front to give the thing a populist face.
I do not believe there will be another election in Iran – not in our lifetimes. This is how purely military dictatorships are born – the situation is primed and waiting for a modern persion Napoleon or Caesar to seize his moment.
WWS it is also important to know where the money is and who has the most to loose. That is why the military, and the guards could take over because that is where the money is, and they have a big stake in where the power stays.
If the Revolutionary Guard refuses to fire on the people, that will be a game changer, the best case scenario, then all bets are off as to where this revolution could go. So let’s hope the rumor is true.
This is a very important read from INSTAPUNDIT.COM
MICHAEL BARONE: Obama’s governance style. “First, Obama likes to execute long-range strategies but suffers from cognitive dissonance when new facts render them inappropriate. His 2008 campaign was a largely flawless execution of a smart strategy, but he was flummoxed momentarily when the Russians invaded Georgia and when John McCain picked Sarah Palin as his running mate. On domestic policy, he has been executing his long-range strategy of vastly expanding government, but may be encountering problems as voters show unease at huge increases on spending. His long-range strategy of propitiating America’s enemies has been undercut by North Korea’s missile launches and demonstrations in Iran against the mullah regime’s apparent election fraud.†Read the whole thing.
The world should do all that it can to help topple the current mullahs and the time has never been better. Rachet up the economic and trade sanctions; mobilize ground forces on their borders (Iraq and Afghanistan—-gee isn’t that geography of warfare starting to make sense); put pressure on their puppets in Syria and Lebanon and Gaza; but do something more than the bleating silence currently coming from the administration—-where’s all those high, pitched, shrill lefties yearning for a free world when you need them.
Hope is note a plan.
Hope that the IRCG will flip to support those who have no leverage is false hope.
Hope that the Mullacracy will change, or slowly decay, is false hope.
Hope that things in Iran will change is false hope.
We pay a lot of people in the CIA, NSA, DIA, and elsewhere to give President Obama a sound course of action.
Obama’s staying on the sidelines which allows all political capital to be squandered by Mullahs and politicians in Iran; once we figure out who is in charge we can support those who benefit USA; and undo the Nuke program currently underway over there. The last thing we need are a different flavor of Islamist kook running around with their finger on the nuclear trigger.
Make no mistake, no world government gives two shakes about Iranian children being killed except Israel. Perhaps the moral high-ground is owned by Israel.
Where is your support for Israel?
Yep, no doubt about it…………I blame George W Bush for even giving them HOPE in the neighborhood.
As for The WordOne, Andy McCarthy@the corner sums him up. He even ends it with ‘scary’. That’s been my opinion from the start.
General Ali Fazli, who was recently appointed as a commander of the Revolutionary Guards in the province of Tehran, is reported to have been arrested after he refused to carry out orders from the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to use force on people protesting the controversial re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Classic example of a people without the right to keep and bear arms. They have been stripped of the means to overturn a tyrannical state and must therefore depend upon the munificence of their “leaders” and the fortunate unwillingness of armed troops to fire. Those on the left who continue the fight to disarm the American people look longingly at the ability of despots in Iran and other parts of the world to enslave and rule. We must never allow them to succeed in overturning the 2nd amendment.