Keep Checking Updates At The End

One of my stellar readers, SBD, has been doing some research on Obama’s home in Hyde Park, Chicago. As the story goes the Obama’s bought the home in 1993 and subsequently sold it in 2005. But if you look at the records on the property they are very confusing and suspicious. Before we dive into the details, as we see them, I want to bring in Tony Rezko and his plea dealing efforts. 

From Hillbuzz there is news that convicted felon (and Obama associate) Tony Rezko is about to turn states evidence, and the rumor is he has an interesting target in his sights:

(2) We just spoke with someone well-connected in Chicago politics who told us that the bank Sneed is talking about has to be Broadway Bank, which is owned by the politically-connected Giannoulias family. We were told that Sneed’s column confirms rumblings people we know heard independently that Tony Rezko is giving up the Giannoulias family to Patrick Fitzgerald — Rezko and the Giannoulias family are as close and tied together as anyone in Chicago could be. If Rezko is turning on them, then Rezko is going to give up Governor Rod Blagojevich and Obama too.

…

4) The Giannoulias family was involved with Obama as far back as his first state senate campaign in 1996. It has been long rumored here in Chicago that Obama obtained a sweetheart deal on his first town home here in Chicago — which he could not have afforded otherwise — and guess who the financing came from for that house? We’ve been told it was Broadway Bank, the Giannoulias bank. Now, this sets up a scenario where the Giannoulias family helps Obama with his campaign finances and gets him deeper in their pocket with his sweetheart mortgage deal (for the first home he owned that he could not afford) – all in exchange for quid pro quo to be determined later.

This post just came out yesterday, as SBD was putting the finishing touches on his research. I don’t believe these two events are independent or coincidental. What could Rezko be singing about? Well, let’s see what SBD has developed.

Basically it is a lot of questions about a lot of conflicting records - no smoking gun (yet). We are throwing this data out to the blogosphere to bring more minds and tools to the problem. It may be nothing, and it may be the fatal October surprise that always seems to comes about. And no, I am not coordinating this with anyone, and neither is SBD who contacted me a week ago and was actually going down a different path until all the data came in.

Here is the summary of what was found in the records:

1. A Lexis property search for Obama in Illinois shows the Hyde Park property in Obama’s name beginning in 1998, but Obama supposedly bought the property in 1993.
2. All tax assessments from 1998-2004 are in the name of Emil - is this the person paying taxes on the property for the Obamas until they sold the property in 2005?
3. Obama Records have a different Legal Description than the original owner’s documents.
4. Cook County Recorder shows completely different information than Lexis: Emil owns the property from 1986-1989, so why is he listed as paying taxes from 1998-2004 in other records?
5. The property is passed via Warranty Deed to Stephen Anderson in 1989, then via Warranty Deed to Obama in 1993, then via Warranty Deed to Elling in 2005 - which aligns with the sequence one would expect given the standard news reports.
6. There is the Warranty Deed to Obama from Anderson in 1993, however release of the Anderson Mortgage is not recorded until 1998, and there is a requests it be sent to Obama’s former Law Firm. 
7. The Obama address in the 1999 records was shown as 927 W. Argyle 1W, not Hyde Park.
8. The mortgage from Hyde Park Mortgage lent in 2002 is originally recorded and sent to Chase Manhattan Mortgage Company. Then assigned from Hyde Park Mortgage to Chase Manhattan Mortgage Company, Then it is supposedly Assigned again from Hyde Park Mortgage to Chase, but this last transaction says the original lender was Barbara Hill for an amount $30,000, property address 2772 E. 75th Street, Unit 3G S.
9. Finally, a 2005 Release from GREATER IL TITLE CO is listed as a record of payment and there is another seperate Release from Hyde Park Mortgage, even though it had been assigned twice to Chase Manhattan Mortgage.
10. The final sale by the Obamas was financed by Northern Trust, the same company that was used to purchase Obama’s new mansion which partially paid for by Rezko, who bought part of the land which he later sold to Obama.

SBD has produced various detailed reports and made copies of the materials he has gathered. The complete list of his work is linked below. We are offering this information up to the blogosphere and public in hopes they can help unravel what may be going on here with these records. 

To be fair, this could be nothing more than bad record keeping - but somehow given the Rezko connections and all these interesting names on the record of this one house it would seem worth investigating. There may be information other people have which may tie into this as well.

What is clear is we only have a few weeks to do the job the lazy and smitten news media should have done vetting our presidential candidates regarding possible corruption. SBD and I look forward to hearing from folks on what this might be and what other information they may have to add to this picture as it finally comes into focus.

SBD detailed reports: [Folks, meant to test the links before posting, they all work now!]

Summary Report

Full Chronology Of Property Records

Lexus Property Records

1993 Purchase Anderson-Obama File 1

1993 Purchase Anderson-Obama File 2

1998 Property Release

1999 Property Release

2002 Obama Mortgage with Hyde Park Mortgage

2002 Mortgage Assignment

2002 Mortgage Assignment Barbara Hill

2005 Elling Mortgage From Northern Trust

2005 Obama Mortgage Release

2005 Chase Manhattan Release

Update: Some details on the Rezko-Obama dealings regarding Obama’s first house.

Update: It seems Obama’s friend, the State Treasury Secretary, has a history of making bad loans - which in the current financial meltdown is the kiss of death.

Udpate: This paragraph at the end of the Hillbuzz post linked above caught my eye because now there is a 3rd Obama property deal in the mix:

Just thinking that last paragraph out, Obama’s defense in the Rezko business was that he never did anything for Rezko so there was no quid pro quo.  What the Giannoulias and Broadway Bank stuff proves is that Obama sits in people’s pockets for a while before the favor is given. He bought that town house sometime between 1997-2000 or so, since he lived there for a few years before trading up to the Obama Mansion with Rezko’s help in 2005, after he was in the United States Senate. 

Hmmm…

Update: Seems even Bill Ayers isn’t exempt from this mess. One of the financial institutions tying Obama to Rezko was also used by Ayers and Obama for the Woods project.

Update: From this Free Republic post we find that Joseph and Rowena Emil appear to be legitimate, and sadly deceased:

EMIL, JOSEPH
Chicago Tribune - August 23, 2002
Joseph Emil , 82, beloved husband on Rowena; adored father of Carla Emil (Rich Silverstein) of San Francisco, CA, Jeffrey (Barbara) Emil of Tampa, Fl, Pamela Emil of New York City and Glen Emil of Chicago, IL; loving grandfather of Benjamin Emil and Matt Rogers; dear brother of William. Everyone who knew him, loved him and he will be greatly missed. Contributions made in his memory to a charity of your choice will be appreciated. Memorial to follow.

//

EMIL, ROWENA
Chicago Tribune (IL) - March 13, 2006
Rowena Emil, nee Clyman, 79, loving wife of the late Joseph Emil ; beloved mother of Carla (Rich Silverstein) of San Francisco, Jeffrey (Barbara) of Tampa, FL, Pamela of New York City and Glenn Emil; grandmother of Benjamin Emil and Matt Rogers; sister-in-law of William (Sandy) Emil. A memorial service will be held at a later date. Please send donations to the charity of your choice.

This lets State Senator Emil Jones pretty much off the hook.

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

Reader Sally Vie noted this interesting post at Hillbuzz:

The polls, in our opinon, are wrong, and the internal numbers we see coming out of NC, VA, PA, OH, IN and FL show McCain wins in all of those states (there is no mathematical possibility for Obama to win without taking PA, OH, or FL). 

I have been wondering why the Democrats are still screaming bloody murder (and ‘racist’, etc) when their man seems to be in the lead? When you have a comfortable lead you start to talk about the future and attempt to look like a statesman. But I have not seen Obama or the libs shift gears yet, telling me something is still worrying them.

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

I know the Palin Derganged liberal media is cheering POLITICAL conclusion that Governor Palin abused her powers as governor in trying to protect her family from a stalking, abusive brother-in-law. The key point in the report:

A legislative investigator found that Palin violated state ethics laws and abused her power by trying to have her former brother-in-law fired as a state trooper.

…

The legislative committee that released the report Friday recommends no criminal investigation and has no authority to sanction the governor, the Republican vice presidential nominee.

A bunch of political men got together to slap Sarah for trying to do what the state should have done when THE STATE determined the guy threatened to kill a fellow citizen: There are the facts never reported by the media - but well known to the public.  From a previous post on the matter:

According to other reports there is a lot of baggage with Micheal Wooten, who appears to be a royal screw up and possibly a stalker. Here is some independent reporting from a news outlet not friendly to Palin:

Wooten is 35, a state trooper since March 2001 and an Air Force veteran. He’s a father of young children who has been married and divorced four times.

…

Troopers eventually investigated 13 issues and found four in which Wooten violated policy or broke the law or both:

…

• He told others his father-in-law would “eat a f’ing lead bullet” if he helped his daughter get an attorney for the divorce.

The man is certifiable, that much is clear. He was out of control, tasering kids and threatening to kill someone. And this nutjob was being protected by another man who physically abused his wife - the wayward “Commissioner Of Public Safety”:

Alaska’s former Public Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan and state trooper Mike Wooten both have a distrubing history of abuse.

…

Via the San Francisco Chronicle Monegan admitted dislocating his wife’s shoulder “by accident” by “wrestling and tickling” her. His estranged wife, Georgene Moldovan, tells another story. 

How is that for irony? The left is getting all tingly in their legs - well at least the emotionally immature male left who get excited about these kinds of things. The ladies out there are start to feel something a lot less positive.

So, a group of pols who oppose Palin in Alaska wrote a report concluding she abused her power against an abusive husband or two. And somehow that will make Obama’s friendship with a couple of unrepentant terrorists go away?

Too funny. You can tell the left has lost their minds because if you think through the two situations you can see it as a net loser for Obama. Palin’s family was haunted and actually threatened by one of those classic abusive males. She tries to do something about the jerk. Women are going to go “you go girl”! Only really dumb men will say that is abusing the abuser.

And Obama’s pal came very close to having one of his bombs go off at a military dance where hundreds of our service men and women, and their dates and spouses, where out for the evening. If Ayers’ luck had held there would have been hundreds of dead and injured Americans as a result.

Palin takes on an violent abusive nut job, Obama befriends a violent dangerous nut job. Seems crystal clear to me which way the public will go.

Update: Reader Bobsunshine notes the report actually exonerates Palin:

Finding Number Two

I find that, although Walt Monegan’s refusal to fire Trooper Michael Wooten was not the sole reason he was fired by Governor Sarah Palin, it was likely a contributing factor to his termination as Commissioner of Public Safety. In spite of that, Governor Palin’s firing of Commissioner Monegan was a proper and lawful exercise of her constitutional and statutory authority to hire and fire executive branch department heads.

So the media lies - which is why as a business it is worthless. Hope people get their money out of those stocks real soon!

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

While the global financial markets melt down, some incredible is transpiring in Iraq, the walls of division are literally coming down!

Market by market, square by square, the walls are beginning to come down. The miles of hulking blast walls, ugly but effective, were installed as a central feature of the surge of American troops to stop neighbors from killing one another.

“They protected against car bombs and drive-by attacks,” said Adnan, 39, a vegetable seller in the once violent neighborhood of Dora, who argues that the walls now block the markets and the commerce that Baghdad needs to thrive. “Now it is safe.”

The slow dismantling of the concrete walls is the most visible sign of a fundamental change here in the Iraqi capital. The American surge strategy, which increased the number of United States troops and contributed to stability here, is drawing to a close. And a transition is under way to the almost inevitable American drawdown in 2009.

Emphasis mine. This is from the New York Times no less. The inevitability of the draw down is now due to the inevitability of victory in Iraq. And that inevitable victory is due to George W Bush, General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker defying the Surrendercrats in Congress and the liberal Surrender Media and pushing for success, as promoted by one John McCain. There is an incredible story at the link so definitely drop by and watch this amazing transformation.

And what did Obama do about Iraq, in addition to opposing the Surge and victory? Well, he tried to delay and stop victory from coming to Iraq so he could benefit politically:

At the same time the Bush administration was negotiating a still elusive agreement to keep the U.S. military in Iraq, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama tried to convince Iraqi leaders in private conversations that the president shouldn’t be allowed to enact the deal without congressional approval.

See, it is all about what is best for Obama - not what is best for our troops, our national security or the war ravaged Iraqi people. This is why Obama is just not ready to be Command in Chief. The world owes President Bush a huge debt for staying dedicated to winning Iraq and defeating al-Qaeda. An al-Qaeda victory in Iraq would have led this nation into decades more of wars in the Middle East. Something Obama was willing to have happen to win votes. 

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

Barack Obama has now been caught in outright lies to the American public regarding his association with ACORN:

Obama’s campaign website states:

Fact: Barack was never an ACORN trainer and never worked for ACORN in any other capacity.

…

Chicago- The Barack Obama Campaign - written by Toni Foulkes, a Chicago ACORN Leader, which was published in the journal Social Policy. Did we mention that Social Policy recently pulled this particular article from their website, while leaving links to all other articles up?

“Obama took the case, known as ACORN vs. Edgar (the name of the Republican governor at the time) and we won. Obama then went on to run a voter registration project with Project VOTE in 1992 that made it possible for Carol Moseley Braun to win the Senate that year. Project VOTE delivered 50,000 newly registered voters in that campaign (ACORN delivered about 5,000 of them).

Since then, we have invited Obama to our leadership training sessions to run the session on power every year, and, as a result, many of our newly developing leaders got to know him before he ever ran for office. Thus it was natural for many of us to be active volunteers in his first campaign for STate Senate and then his failed bid for U.S. Congress in 1996. By the time he ran for U.S. Senate, we were old friends.“

Read the whole thing.  If Obama will lie to us about his past, why should Americans believe him about his plans for our future?

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

Rash ideas can destroy something built over decades of careful steps. The Clinton ‘golden years’ ended with the dot.com bubble he created bursting and wiping out a lot of wealth, bringing on a small recession George Bush had to deal with when he took office. But another disaster was planted in the Clinton years, and has only bore its fruit this year, with the collapse of financial markets thanks to the rush to make a sea of bad loans, all in the name of ‘affirmative action’:

H/T Ed Morrissey. One has to wonder how much of this disaster was rash liberal ideas run amok, and whether any of it was a dastardly hidden time bomb meant to destroy the capitalistic system the socialists hate so much. How is it all the liberals still have their money - and the reigns of power? Are Obama’s associates who once ran Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae still worth millions and millions? I do believe they are.

And they made those millions (and the the thousands they sent to Obama’s campaign coffers) off the sweat and toil of the American worker and families as they scrimped to make their mortgage payment each month. Now, when you right that check to money lenders in Obama’s temple, you know what you paid for.

Update: Note Obama admits the ideas was to SPREAD RISK across the globe - not just across the nation. He admits this poison pill of liberal rashness was intended to help the poor, but he also admits IT MESSED THINGS UP across the globe! They spread the cancer of shaky financial investments, and everyone is now losing their savings and retirement due to this risky, rash scheme hatched across two Democrat administrations.

If there is any better indication of Obama’s bad judgement, liberal bad judgement, and why we don’t want liberals running the White House, Senate and Congress, this weeks stock market crash is the prime example. What would a 3rd liberal democrat administration do to us???

Update: If McCain and the GOP want to salvage this election now is the time to tar the dems with this crisis. They cannot wait anymore, they cannot be diverted anymore. 

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

Obama is so naive and inexperienced it is painful to watch. On top of that his Chicago-style politics is not going to work nationally. His campaign is in full whine mode now. He wonders why the final phase of this election is not about the issues, but about character and judgement. He doesn’t understand presidential politics and the ebb and flow of the race as it heads into the final stretch.

At this point with two debates down we have heard what we need on the issues. As Obama throws verbal math tests on policy details against the wall (95% of who will get a tax cut?) Americans come back to where they always are every four years - trying to select between two basically equal policy offerings which sound like the usual BS empty promises. You can try and explain the math behind income tax, corporate tax, health car planes, etc - but most people are swamped with the details of their own lives and this information becomes white noise at this point in the election. 

As usual (with the exception of Mondale who promised to raise taxes), on policy the two sides of fought to a draw. Now onto the final phase: personal character. This is Obama’s- and his campaign’s - weakest area. Obama’s personal associations either show he pals with extreme liberalists and socialists and unrepentant terrorsists, or he is so driven to climb the latter he gets duped into supporting these whacked con men because the guy has no idea - ever - what he is getting into. Apparently the latest (and final) excuse for his questionable associations is going to be ignorance. Check out this radio interview below (H/T Politico), but let me note a few things up front for folks to listen for:

• Obama’s complaints that people use his middle name is ridiculous. He was born to a Muslim and raised by a step father who was Muslim. No, I don’t think he is Muslim - but the man and his supporters need to stop complaining about this - it comes off silly and juvenile. Best to ignore it. And, I have to remind all the Obamabots out there ‘Muslim’ is not a race, so all those lame cries about racism are backfiring big time. Stand tall, stop whimpering.
• On Bill Ayers Obama tries to misinform again about his relationship. When he says he was “on a board” with Ayers he tries to give the impression they barely knew each other, they showed up for meetings. But this was Ayers’ big project, he created the foundation, and Obama was tapped to LEAD the board. That is not an arrangement where two people just show up and meet each other at meetings. There were interviews, agreements on strategy, planning. All one has to do is ask Obama was he interviewed, how was he vetted by Ayers to funnel money to his radical liberal brain washing groups for kids.
• Note the reference to Ronald Reagan. Neither Reagan nor Annenberg had anything to do with this little socialist group. Ayers had succeeded in winning grant money (he won a proposal basically). Obama all through this interview cries distraction, then tries to cover his tracks by name dropping Ronald Reagan - that is a klutzy and transparent act of a rookie national campaign. 
• The laugher is where Obama thought Ayers was “rehabilitated”. This leaves us with only two conclusion to make about Obama: (1) He is lying and thinks we are too stupid to figure out Ayers brags constantly about his acts (see here) or (2) Obama is a clueless fool who is so easily duped that Ayers and Dorhn played him like a fiddle when they made him their front man for funneling money into their causes (no fingerprints for the two terrorists).
• All throughout Obama cannot grasp why the discussion is now about him!

With these points in mind listen to him spin and deny, and show is true character:

Character and Judgement are the final pieces of the puzzle for this election. We are at war and the world is facing a financial meltdown that no one seems to be able to control. Do we go with the young and vague unknown kid from Chicago or the scrappy, seasoned fighter pilot who has a solid reputation for ignoring partisans? That is the choice.

And dems are making it worse! Whines of racism are signs of bad judgement and an inability to debate the topic. These cries instead indicate someone running for cover and blaming others for their retreat. Trying to connect Palin and McCain to ‘radical right wing groups’ is now too late. Maybe when Rev Wright was big news that may have worked. But now, unless you find a connection to people who bombed the White House or Pentagon, someone on the FBI’s Top 10 Most Wanted list, someone who targeted a military dance in an effort to kill hundreds, the attempts look foolish and emphasize the impression Obama is trying to hide something.

And there may be more character questions coming. Obama’s ties to ACORN, a far left organization mired in massive voter fraud investigations across the country, are clearly documented. Obama trained their ‘community organizers’, represented them in cases to force banks to take on the bad loans that pumped money into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (and into the pocket of Raines and others at the top of these companies - who then funneled them into Obama’s campaign chests). He even tried to hide the fact his campaign contracted with the directly, sending them almost $1 million dollars (even though they pay their people peanuts). 

People can connect these dots: Obama sues banks to make bad loans for ACORN, these bad loans are bought by his buddies running Fannie Mae, the money from these bad loans goes into the pockets of those same buddies with a percentage off the top going into the Obama campaign, who sends the bad loan money to ACORN to fill the voter registrations with fake voters. And recall the Democrats (including Obama) wanted to send MILLIONS OF DOLLARS to ACORN as part of the financial bailout package. Americans may hate policy math but they can figure that one out easily.

McCain is playing this last phase quite well. Obama is on his heels. The first salvo was Ayers, and Obama and his camp where all prepared to face it in the last debate - prepping and planning responses. McCain came out strong on the economy, only hinting about the financial mess and ACORN. All that Ayers prep was wasted time for Obama.

Camp Obama is still focused on Ayers, his middle name and angry jerks at McCain-Palin rallies (note to Obama camp, you can’t cry foul about guilt by association between Ayers and Obama and try and link guilt between McCain-Palin and some stranger in a massive crowd of thousands - that ain’t working either). He is not on message and is on defense. Nothing but the whining is getting through.

Each week McCain is going to hit Obama with one or two massive blows about character until the election. Each time Obama is on his heels whining McCain gets 1-2% points. Obama doesn’t have anything else on McCain to use. He tried the old guy with skin cancer about to die who can’t use a computer and isn’t really honorable because he was loosely involved in the Keating 5 with democrat senator and astronaut John Glenn.  Those topics have all been spent.

McCain waited until the very end, where Obama has little to no opportunity to react and do damage control, let alone recover. This final phase is all about character and judgement Barack - it will all be personal and about you. And you are about to understand what a national election is really about, and how it evolves to the actual voting.

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

[Note: I am going to bracket every post related to the 2008 Presidential election with the above tag line to remind everyone what this election is all about. If I fail to do so please remind me to update the posts!]

Now I understand why Obama was willing to sit down with terrorists supporting rogue nations without any preconditions. Clearly he has had no issues sitting down and working with unrepentant American terrorists, so it would be natural for him to reach out across the battle lines to our enemies outside the nation as he has with our enemies inside this great country:

That is one powerful and concise advertisement about what is wrong with Barack Obama and his vision of America.

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

It seems they have reopened one of the bombing murders by the Weather Underground group and the case points to Dohrn and Ayers.

The unsolved murder of two San Francisco police officers has languished as cold cases for 30 years until now. A federal grand jury has been looking into the murders. Many of the people now under investigation both as potential targets and witnesses in this case are scattered across the country. Many of them are now in their 50s and 60s. Investigators believe the crimes were politically motivated and committed by militant radical groups. 

On August 29, 1971, sergeant John Young is killed in a barrage of gunfire when two men walk into the Ingleside police station and begin shooting at officers sitting behind the glass partition. It is the second unsolved police killing in 18 months.

On February 16, 1970, officer Brian McDonnell is killed when a bomb explodes at Park Police Station. 

…

And now, sources tell us, those investigators have identified potential suspects: former members of two militant groups in the ’60s and ’70s — the Weather Underground and the Black Liberation Army, people who’ve been out of the spotlight for decades. The most prominent among them is Bernadine Dohrn, a former leader of the Weather Underground and now a law professor at Northwestern University in Illinois.

So here is the gut check question for Obama: will you call on Bernadine Dohrn and William Ayers to come clean with authorities and will you throw your full support behind the prosecution’s efforts to find and punish the killers of these good people?

Just watching him hem and haw would be worth it. H/T Reader Snapple.

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

Want to know why I am proud to be a conservative independent and happy to remain outside the cult of a national party? David Brooks illustrates the fact that the rot in the Political Industrial Complex of Pols, Pundits, Media and Power Brokers cuts across party lines:

David Brooks spoke frankly about the presidential and vice presidential candidates Monday afternoon, calling Sarah Palin a “fatal cancer to the Republican party” but describing John McCain and Barack Obama as “the two best candidates we’ve had in a long time.”

Got that? The uppity woman from Main Street is a Cancer the the life long community activist and political insider from Chicago one of the two best candidates we have seen in a long time????  Seems another of the High Priests Of The Beltway have their Holy Robes all in a ruffle over the commoner in their midst. What kind of cancer would that be your grace - ovarian or breast cancer?

Brooks has always come off as an arrogant ass with nothing much to say. Now we have proof positive that, no matter what ‘conservative’ role he acts on PBS, he is just another one of those people in DC who should retire for the good of the country. Dave, you are the one rotting in place, not Sarah Palin.  Brooks is now blacklisted from my reading lists and blog.

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

Obi-wan Kenobi is a mentor of Jim Geraghty who has years of political experience on the GOP side. In 2004 Obi-wan and I were of the exact same mind (which means more about my ability to act like a stopped watch every for years and luck into being right). Obi-wan surfaced recently to bring some experience to bear on a nervous GOP base:

“Any pessimism now is dumbness,” he said as he appeared to me recently. “A few weeks ago every swing state was coming McCain’s way and he had a national lead. And some polls showed him  four points and six points behind in New Jersey and New York. And now all that has gone away? Politics doesn’t work like that. The American people, even in the midst of an unprecented economic crisis, don’t react like that for any sustained period. Those patterns can reassert themselves.”

…

“First, Obama did not have a good debate. He didn’t do what he needed to do. Be reassuring. His gestalt was shaky.”

…

Obama has a much higher hurdle than Kennedy, Al Gore, John Kerry, or almost any other recent Democrat. All of those candidates were known quantities. The fundamental question of this election is going to be, ‘as we head into really challenging times, which man reassures you?’”

…

Second, Obi says the Palin phenomenon is for real. “Not only because she is so effective or appealing but because it spotllights McCain’s decision-making. He can throw a tenstrike at the critical moment.  McCain’s campaign has missed a few but basically it has shown resilence.”

…

Fourth — for me this was the the kind of insight that makes him as a Jedi Master — “Media bias may be McCain’s biggest asset in this race.

…

“I guarantee you, right now there is some realist in the Obama camp who is petrified of any falloff in the polls. Because if Obama slips, he could fall fast. McCain’s already gotten up off the mat once this cycle, when he was supposed to be dead in the primary. He faced a meltdown and it didn’t happen; you almost never see candidates and campaigns who can pull out of a crash dive . . .

There’s much more at the link, definitely go read the whole thing - and listen to Obi-wan Kenobi.

There are a few more of us not wringing our hands over the debate. This contrary view of the situation at RCP also mirrors my own views quite nicely:

But sometimes those of us covering this campaign every hour of the day can lose perspective on what actual voters are thinking. The chatterers are talking to the chatterers, who are talking to other chatterers. And what they all decided was that McCain needed to do what they thought right. He didn’t, ergo he lost.

Well, perhaps. But in the echo chamber that is the national media certain things are sometimes lost. For instance, the media has all but declared Sarah Palin a drag on the ticket, and yet she continues to draw huge crowds. Someone out there likes her.

When events don’t go the way the chatterers want them to go (or think they should go) they call it a defeat, a missed opportunity, etc. But what they’re really saying more often than not is that they want politicians to do what they think is right. McCain didn’t last night. He and his campaign felt it was better to talk to the American people, not to the chatterers.

Armchair candidates are every where. And just like buttocks, everyone’s got an opinion on what they would do. I think McCain made the right choices by and large. 

And about Palin and her draw. Her debate with Joe What’s-his-name drew an all time record crowd of 72.5 million (if you count in the PBS audiences - no word on C-SPAN viewers, which is where we watch the debates to avoid the chatterer). The 2nd Presidential debate was only able to approach the Palin draw, coming in at 63 million. Palin draws overflow crowds that equal or exceed The Messiah’s crowds.

There are even some folks on the left who know better than to fall for the current swath of polls.

Peaks are called that for a reason: Within the last three days, Obama had surpassed or equaled his all-time high in every single tracking poll: Research 2000 (+12% two days ago), Gallup (+9% yesterday), Rasmussen (+8% yesterday), Battleground (+7% yesterday), Hotline (+7% three days ago), and Zogby (+3% yesterday). With Obama hitting his all-time high in four tracking polls yesterday, one two days ago and one three days ago, for both of the reasons mentioned above, the idea that his standing in these polls was gong anywhere but down is wishful thinking. When dealing with polls that have a track record of several weeks and, in some cases, seven months, it is highly unlikely that a record will be immediately followed with another record.

I want to illustrate another example of shoddy polls sitting in the RCP poll average polls, mucking up the numbers (being an engineer with a broad science background poor math models bug the daylights out of me).  Here is today’s Morning Call daily tracking poll for PA - now at +12 Obama. Some internals and caveats inside the numbers worth pointing out. First the bottom line numbers:

OBAMA………………………..50% 
MCCAIN……………………….38% 
NEITHER/OTHER…………… 3% 
NOT SURE……………………. 9%

Seems ominous, except for the big “(INCLUDING LEANERS)” warning sign just above the numbers. Wonder what it looked like without the “leaners”? But there is more. Check out the sample break down:

DEMOCRAT…………….. 54% 
REPUBLICAN…………… 39% 
INDEPENDENT………….. 6% 
OTHER PARTY…………… 1%

Wow, with a 15% tilt to the Dems and almost no Independents Obama better be ahead by 12%. And finally, this little disclaimer at the end:

The data gathered through our interviewing process is statistically weighted to insure that the sample reflects the overall population of voters in terms of age, race, gender and region of the state. The weighting process is required because different segments of the population respond to interview requests in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men and older individuals are more likely to be reached than their younger counterparts. The Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll does not weight by party affiliation.

What you get in the sample is what you get in the sample is all you get in terms of aligning registration with reality. Many, many Dems vote conservative in PA, which is why the large voter registration advantage for Dems in PA usually result in a nail biter between the GOP and Dems in the Presidential race - like it did in the 2.5% squeaker for Kerry over Bush in 2004.

There is no realistic way Obama is +12% in PA. He might be +3-5%. If the national polls tighten some more, the state polls will follow suit a few days later. I think Obama is worried, he acts worried. His campaign acts worried. And watching Sarah Palin and Cindy McCain represent women strongly on the stump is not hurting McCain either.

Here’s my October surprise guess. I am thinking Alice Palmer, the state senator from Illinois Obama shuffled out of her seat by suing her name off the ballot in court, will come out again as she did just recently for CNN, and put the lie to Obama’s cover story regarding Bill Ayers and that event hosted at his house that launched his political career. The Obama camp claimed they knew nothing of the host since Palmer - so they claim - coordinated the event. Not so said Ms Palmer:

Anderson, this meeting at Bill Ayers’ home has been classified in many different ways. What I can tell you from two people who were actually there is: number one, former State Senator Alice Palmer says she in no way organized this meeting. She was invited, and attended it briefly. And, Dr. QuintonYoung, a retired doctor, told us this indeed was Barack Obama’s political coming-out party and it was hosted by Bill Ayers.

Alice Palmer was a strong Hillary supporter. She doesn’t owe allegiance to Obama in anyway, and in a lot of ways owes him a good swift kick to the political curb - as he did to her when he ended her political career.

I’m with Obi-wan Kenobi, the Force is not with Obama right now, despite the polls.

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

It seems Obama is floating back down to earth in the polls out today. For example, Obama has dropped from a +7% lead to a +1 statistical tie in the Diageo/Hotline daily tracking poll in the last three days. The following graph shows the trend without today’s results factored in:

In the Battleground Daily Tracking Poll Obama’s +7% lead has shrunk to +4% in one day. Will have to wait and see if Gallup is also finally detecting the downwards shift for Obama.

In the Rassmussen Daily Tracking Poll Obama’s +8% lead has dropped to +6% in one day.

As many predicted, this race is tightening up rather quickly.

Update: Wow - The Gallup Daily Tracking Poll now seems to be the outlier with a huge jump for Obama to an +11% lead. All other polls show a dip in support for Obama, so go figure.

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

A must see moment when a GOP Congressman calls on the Democrat Congress to fix the financial mess and the Democrats balk (knowing full well they share a majority of the blame).  Shays states boldly the only reason there are no hearings on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is the problem that started this all is a Congressional mistake Congress won’t face up to. He then goes on to lists (endlessly) the hearings that should be reviewed as to why action was never taken to avoid this meltdown.

Here some items I learned:

• Did America know Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (FM-FM) had less reporting requirements than any other normal company? I sure as didn’t.
• Did you know FM-FM basically bought off opposing lobbyists to halt any challenges against their views?  I sure didn’t! 

Watch the whole thing. H/T Reader “ExposeFannieNFreddieNow” (sounds like a political operative - good thing they had some solid information and simply used the congressional record or I might have ignored the point).

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

Reading through the views of the politically obsessed this morning (me being one myself) one has to step back and think about the country and our choices. Just about everyone agrees the debate was boring (after Sarah Palin, of course it was boring) and basically a draw. Conventional wisdom had decided a draw goes to Obama because he is in the lead (sort of, for now). Many on the right are mad McCain wasn’t throwing everything at Obama he had in his arsenal on Obama’s bad history.

As usual I am going to be contrary here. Obama’s checkered past is sinking in slowly with the public, the surrogates can do the trash talking.  That is what Sarah and Joe What’s-his-name are for. American’s don’t want to hear from their Presidential options all about who the other guy played cards with ten years ago. They want to hear where the nation will go.

And in these times of near panic and a lot of partisan screaming, keeping a cool head is a damn important thing to steady a nation rocked by war and financial crisis. The last 8 years have been tough, but not because of Bush but because we were thrust into fighting a war with a devilish and brutal enemy. The sub-prime mess took decades to blow up, but it is clear it was due to liberal politics taking over sound lending practices, and DC cronyism where money flowed from mortgages into fat cat pockets and into campaign coffers.

McCain nicely tied Obama to the financial mess and many agree McCain dominated the economic issue. That IS the issue of the day folks. Instant gratification is such a waste of time. Americans are going to ponder the debate and let things sink in. They will work it at the water cooler and over a few dinners. All these political junkies forget to savour the moment and watch history unfold. Their impatience with their fellow citizens is why hyper-partisanship is so tarnished.

Here’s how the world looks outside the minutiae of the political industrial complex and the politically obsessed. It’s scary out there. We have enemies still trying to kill us and a financial disaster rolling the world now. All of our future plans for ourselves and our families are now at risk. There is a great unknown ahead of us. 91% of us think we are on the wrong track, and the track is not leading to a shining city on a hill.

When America steps into that voting booth they can select between a inexperienced, unknown, platitude slinging junior senator who promises everything on a silver platter, or they can go with the old war horse who has been attacked by every side in DC. One of the reasons Obama may be slipping in the polls is once he became the inevitable choice people FINALLY started to think about what that would mean. And I think they started to get worried.

One of my readers, Archtop, summed it up very well last night:

Obama wants to change America while McCain wants to change Washington.

This is the golden nugget that came out of this debate. This is the bottom line bumper sticker America gets. This is Obama’s Achilles Heal - he and his liberal friends hate America and want to change America. McCain wants to fix Washington, because that is the cause of America’s problems.

I think America will, in the end, reject the risky choice of Obama mainly because he doesn’t have faith in America and McCain does. And McCain showed that faith and respect all night. To build moment takes one good small shove in the right direction at a time. Each shove helps you pick up speed.

Obama has the entire liberal media covering for him, more money than God, and more air time with his ads. And still he is only tied? This is going to be an interesting week or two coming up. But don’t lose faith in America - John McCain hasn’t.

Wild Idea: Send Palin to debate Obama for the last round! The election will be over.

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

2nd Summary - I need to add the scariest comment came from Obama, who wanted the government to fire executives he disagrees with. This is not the USSR dude.

The focus groups bothered me too.  They did not hear what they wanted to hear, and it dawned on me they did not hear about the magic bullet! It was very depressing to realize these people think DC kowtows to their smallest whims and has all these magic wands to grant everyone’s wishes. That was worrisome.

Summary - I give this one hands down to McCain. Obama kept trying jam talking points into answers with little to no relationship to the question. McCain answered questions directly. Obama looked weak on national security, McCain dominated, especially on Pakistan and invading that ally.

New drinking discovered - have a shot when Obama says “biggest challenge facing our nation” or something to that effect. - end summary

I think tonight I will write less and listen more (at least I say that now!). I may try to do the round by round scoring, but at a much higher level.  Folks, feel free to have at it in the comments section. Now, onto the debate!

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