Jul 30 2009
O-Bomba Poll Crash!
Updated!
The damage is done to the Health Care proposal from the President and the liberal old guard in Congress, and to their credibility overall. The polls coming out this week are probably just the beginning of a slide that will continue through Thanksgiving. For example, there is the NPR poll:
President Obama has hit a rough patch this summer, squeezed between a lingering recession and rising questions about the health care overhaul he has made the centerpiece of his first-year agenda.
…
However, when asked about the [democrat health care] plan now moving through Congress, a plurality of 47 percent was opposed and 42 percent said they were in favor, based on what they had heard about the plan so far.
…
The first statement: “President Obama’s economic policies helped avert an even worse crisis and are laying the foundation for our eventual economic recovery.” The second statement: “President Obama’s economic policies have run up a record federal deficit while failing to end the recession or slow the record pace of job losses.”
A plurality preferred the second statement, 48 percent to 45 percent.
On the economy and health care, the dems are losing ground. Now a NBC/WSJ Poll:
Pluralities now say that the president’s health care plan is a bad idea, and that it will result in the quality of their care getting worse. What’s more, just four in 10 approve of his handling on the issue.
The poll also finds that Obama’s overall job-approval rating has dropped to 53 percent. And it shows a public that has grown increasingly concerned about the federal government’s spending as the administration defends its $787 billion economic stimulus and supports a $1 trillion-plus health-care bill.
And there is the NY Times/CBS Poll:
Americans are concerned that revamping the health care system would reduce the quality of their care, increase their out-of-pocket health costs and tax bills, and limit their options in choosing doctors, treatments and tests, the poll found. The percentage who describe health care costs as a serious threat to the American economy — a central argument made by Mr. Obama — has dropped over the past month.
…
Mr. Obama’s job approval rating has dropped 10 points, to 58 percent, from a high point in April.
And despite his efforts — in speeches, news conferences, town-hall-style meetings and other forums — to address public misgivings, 69 percent of respondents in the poll said they were concerned that the quality of their own care would decline if the government created a program that covers everyone.
And there is Rassmussen’s tracking of Obama:
 
All of these are clear and broad signs that the risky (health care) and failed (stimulus) liberal policies hoisted on a pack of out right lies is starting to really concern (if not out right scare) the American people. After all their overblown promises on the stimulus and jobs which did not pan out, and then to try and claim they never made those wild claims, the Democrats have been rightfully pegged as incoherent and irresponsible.
The health care battle was a disaster of wild promises and claims while trying to sneak through a government run take over. It was so obvious that the BS coming out at press conferences had no resemblance to the provisions in the bill that the nation had a massive gestalt moment – liberals in the political industrial complex are just not be honest with us.
So far the GOP is not gaining from all this, which is not surprising. We just went through many years of a similar problem with them, which ended in their ouster from power. The political industrial complex is coming up against a newly wired and connected electorate – linked through the internet, blogs and twitter – who can ferret out their BS and communicate it to others nearly instantaneously. These ivory tower types in DC and NY City are barely realizing that the intelligence and drive of the American people, once harnessed, can also direct its clear focus on them. For all their vaulted claims of being inspired by the drive and ingenuity of the American people, they have yet to learn how to stop insulting our combined intelligence with platitudes and sound bites.
And this is why the fringes, and their simple minded solutions, are the real ones losing credibility. It is the centrists and moderates who know how America works day in and day out solving endless complex problems with teamwork and rolled up sleeves, that represent the path forward.
The rest of this year will be an interesting lesson about arrogance and hubris. The Dems will go on August break, which will see the July unemployment bad news come out, and will return in September when the August bad news comes out. And America will be rightfully at its patience limits regarding fixing the economy.
One recent story struck me as the epitome of how bad this will get for the pols and all their dishonest claims:
How much are politicians straining to convince people that the government is stimulating the economy? In Oregon, where lawmakers are spending $176 million to supplement the federal stimulus, Democrats are taking credit for a remarkable feat: creating 3,236 new jobs in the program’s first three months.But those jobs lasted on average only 35 hours, or about one work week. After that, those workers were effectively back unemployed, according to an Associated Press analysis of state spending and hiring data. By the state’s accounting, a job is a job, whether it lasts three hours, three days, three months, or a lifetime.
The nation is fed up with this extreme exaggeration coming from failed leaders. There will be a backlash in 2010. A massive one.
Update: Yep, there is a clear poll crash in progress, now that we have Gallup’s numbers in for the day as well. Since the beginning of May, when Obama had a +42% approval, he has lost almost three quarters of that and is sitting at +11% today. Rassmussen’s presidential approval index has reached an all time high of -12% today.
And as the health care approach moves to the center, the liberal wing of the Democrat Party is up in arms!
A House leadership deal with Blue Dogs and an aggressive marketing push by Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) shifted the healthcare debate sharply toward centrist positions Wednesday, sparking threats of rebellion from the left.
…
The Blue Dogs’ deal, which cut $100 billion from the healthcare reform price tag, was instantly denounced by Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D-Calif.), co-chairwoman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, who said, “It’s unacceptable. We’re not going to vote for anything that doesn’t have a robust public plan.â€
This is a great opportunity for the GOP to add in moderate, centrists elements to the bill (like tort reform, insurance pools, etc) and take the wind out of the liberals. It would also send a signal to America a center right conservative coalition is back from the brink of the far right and ready to lead this nation. Will they do this?Â
So far I have little faith in the DC political industrial complex to do anything that makes sense from either side of the aisle.
Update: Geez, even Pew is seeing the massive slide in support.
Welcome to the Democrats’ Waterloo. Those are some stunning numbers. A 17 point swing in general approval, a 26 point swing on health care and a 44 point swing on the economy since April!
As I mentioned above, two months of continuing bad unemployment results while DC is on recess will only deepen the backlash by September.
Update: And yes, the President’s failures do have coat tails and are impacting the view of the two parties:
During the Bush administration, Democrats made huge gains in some important Republican areas. For example, on the question of which party would do a better job in handling the federal budget deficit, Democrats held a 19-point advantage in a November 2005 Journal poll, a 25-point advantage in July 2007, and a 22-point advantage in January 2008. Â
Now all that has changed. In the new poll, the results have completely turned around, and Republicans hold a six-point advantage. On the related issue of controlling government spending, in July 2007, Democrats held a 16-point advantage. In the new poll, Republicans hold a nine-point lead.
Also in the Bush years, Democrats erased the Republican advantage on the issue of taxes. In November 2005, Democrats held a 10-point advantage over Republicans on the tax issue. That lead diminished over the next few years, but Democrats still held a five-point advantage in January 2008. In the new poll, Republicans have a seven-point advantage.
2010 is going to be just like 1994.
[…] Read the original post: O-Bomba Poll Crash! […]
Ace posted this this morning, but it’s a great example of why Obama’s polls are crashing: Voters actually do remember the things that Obama said while he was running for this job;
October 18, 2008:
OBAMA: Well, first of all, I think it’s important for the American public to understand that the $750 billion rescue package, if it’s structured properly, and, as president, I will make sure it’s structured properly, means that ultimately taxpayers get their money back, and that’s important to understand.
But there is no doubt that we’ve been living beyond our means and we’re going to have to make some adjustments.
Now, what I’ve done throughout this campaign is to propose a net spending cut. I haven’t made a promise about…
SCHIEFFER: But you’re going to have to cut some of these programs, certainly.
OBAMA: Absolutely. So let me get to that. What I want to emphasize, though, is that I have been a strong proponent of pay-as- you-go. Every dollar that I’ve proposed, I’ve proposed an additional cut so that it matches.
One difference is accountability and the serious attention to accountability. We’re seeing more accountability and people making our politicians accountable and responsible for their own votes.
Before we weren’t concerned because we had jobs and surviving within our own budgets. We didn’t care what the government was doing to us.
Now with the unemployment rate inching past 10 percent, rapidly rising deficits, stimulus plans, downfall of Wall Street and the auto industry, tax hikes, and so on, people ARE paying closer attention.
Many have been fooled.
Guy Fawkes posted his response on YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oM8l3X_7Hkg
AJ, the big questions will be how massive the backlash will be, and how Obama will respond.
In 1994, the backlash was massive – the first Republican Congress in 40 years, with enough of a majority to withstand a decade of slow losses. The outlook for House races is cloudy…the Democrats are defending seats won in 2006 as well as 2008. And the former have won a reelection campaign, making them far tougher opponents. I can see the Republicans making substantial inroads, but winning outright control of the House will be a hard fight.
The Senate is worse. The Republicans are defending seats won in 2004…and have far more seats to defend this cycle than the Democrats. I see the Republicans winning two or three seats, but more would really take a tsunami of support.
Obama’s response will be even more intriguing. In 1995, Clinton pulled a masterful chameleon act and saved his political hide by running for the center at high speed. But Clinton had done that before…the same thing had happened to him in Arkansas. Obama has never known defeat, and I suspect that his response will be less temperate. I’m betting he’ll throw a full-scale tantrum.
The joker in the deck is foreign policy. In my opinion, it is not a matter of IF Israel will strike at the Iranian nuclear program, but WHEN. And what the consequences will be, both for Israel and the United States. Foreign crises generally work for the President – but I would bet on terrorist activity in the U.S., and Obama has been awfully weak on terrorism. And after the wholesale bashing the Dems gave President Bush, the Republicans have no reason whatsoever to stay their hand against Obama.
In another WSJ poll that looks at how the parties are compared on various issues topics the Dems have blown 25 point leads into now near double digit leads for the Repubs.
That is a 30 point swing plus , which is not to be sneezed at.
The over reach by the Congressional Progressive Caucus is going to bite them and hard.
Now Maxine Waters is declaring war on the Blue Dogs and the big tent looks to be getting a few rips in the canvas.
Keeping the popcorn at the ready.
That Rusmussen chart must be last night’s .. it’s -12 now.
Frankly, the mistake that Team Obama made these last few weeks is to focus the public’s attention on his healthcare package. They were perfectly content in their “ignorant bliss” up till then, and he had to go and get their attention.
When you’re messing with somebody’s personal business, it’s best not to tell them about it.
Reminds me of the Rumsfeld attributed (actually Jed Babbin) quote … “going to war without France is like going deer hunting without an accordion“. Obama should leave the accordion at home.
Congressional representatives work for US – the constituents in each district. The oath they took does not swear allegiance to their party, or to the president, but to us. It is time for us to remind our representatives that they work for us; not their party and not the president. Congressional voting priorities seem to be themselves (individually), their party, the president and then their constituents. It is backwards and wrong – in both parties.
Hoyer was right. He said that had we not read the bill, the American public would be standing by Obama and Congress would’ve gotten it passed by now.
NNB, the problem with them representing us is that half of us are liberals and the other half conservatives so how can they represent us?
The key word is education. Our school system’s curriculum need to be revamped to educate the true history of our Founders of this nation; not teach our kids to become socialists.
Neo:
I don’t know why AJ runs a thread on polls because AJ couldn’t read a poll with Braille.
The Rasmussen Poll is the best poll around because it is a likely voter poll and not an adult or registered voter poll. Now all the Republicans were mad with Scott in 2008 because he had the Democrats at 40% or more of the likely voters. It turned out that Scott Rasmussen was right in his likely voter turnout model and with the election prediction.
Currently Rasmussen is using a 39-32.5-28.5 sample for his tracking poll which he admits overstates the likely Democrat turnout in the 2009 elections. Since 72% of Republicans strongly disapprove of Obama a change to 37.5-34-28.5 would be huge. I would be curious to know what his like voter model of 2010 shows. The 28.5 unaffiliated number usually decreases (to around 25%) as an election approaches. The reason is we have a two party system and unaffiliated in not on the ballot. So eventually people choose sides. Now as we get into 2010, I’m beginning to warm to the idea that the unaffiliated number will get to 30% and then won’t budge.
So the -12 could be worse. Curiously even with 72% strongly disapprove but only 80% of Republicans disapprove. (8% of Republicans somewhat disapprove). When the remaining 20% come around to the disapprove column the numbers will look much worse. Looking at the numbers themselves the 40% strongly disapprove is huge as well as the 48% approve.
The man has only been President for six months (if my math is correct). People usually don’t give up on a President so quickly. He won 53% of the vote or there abouts, to be 5% under your vote total six months in is …….., amazing. These numbers are weak, very weak. And they could be weaker.
The 72% number is a stunner, but the other worrisome number is the unaffiliated approval number (37-63). I triple checked that number because I thought my eyes were deceiving me.
MarkN: My point was that the polls are dropping so fast that the postings can’t keep up.
As for those remaining 20%, there are many fair minded folks out there that are trying their very best to give Obama a fair shake, but it’s getting harder and harder.
Meanwhile, the definition of “bipartisan” now seems to extend to interactions between “Blue Dogs” and other Democrats, and they can’t even make that work.
The best thing right now for the economy and everybody’s “numbers” is for DC to take a vacation.
Rasmussen is sort of unique in that they require a choice one way or the other and don’t allow a cop out of ‘undecided’ to muck up the results.
But even if you go to Pollster and look at their call on this , even though they blindly take any biased poll and just average them the trend is still Obama is tanking.
Make sure you also look at the individual charts linked at the top of that one for breakdowns of what Dems,Independents and Repubs are doing on the Obama issue.
Pollster would confirm Rasmussen’s numbers. The Dems are 85% vs. 83%(Ras). The Repubs are 78.5% vs. 80%(Ras). The difference is in the unaffiliated which is 48% vs. 37%(Ras).
The unaffiliated numbers are the difference between a likely voter sample and an adult sample. An adult off the street who is unaffiliated is more likely to be politically agnostic. They would have a more favorable opinion of the new President especially if they only vote once every four years, if ever. An unaffiliated person is has been identified as a likely voter is going to be more politically active and more informed on the new President’s performance.
The numbers are weak, and getting weaker. Even Gallup has a 53% approval number from an adult sample. To have your approval rating equal your vote total six months in just does not happen. It must be a misprint. Even GWB had a higher approval rating in July 2001 than his vote total.
MarkN,
If you want to post here I suggest you don’t insult your host. Last warning (no braille needed).
Pelosi was out in the open today bizarrely ranting at insurance companies in general. She doesn’t understand that the insurance companies have, in fact, been holding back from the kind of money they spent to defeat Hillarycare, and she also cannot figure out that the last thing she needs right now is another well funded enemy.
Pelosi is unarguably the most clueless and unpopular Speaker in at least a century, maybe ever. She revels in her 25% approval rating in the polls; but it mystifies me why the supposedly clever Obomba doesn’t realize that by relying on her and by making her the mouthpiece of his reform efforts, he’s tying himself to her and to her approval ratings more and more each day.
Will he ever figure out that she’s the one who’s dragging him into the mud? And if he does figure it out, will he have the nerve to do anything about it?
It is a local humorous reference. It would seem you’re not familiar with the hyperbole. No matter, I’ll keep my humor more generic in the future.
You have to admit, which you have in the past, that your not very good at reading polls. No matter, quoting Byron York is a good substitute. Anyway, a friend told me last November, two days after the election, that Obama would make sure that Pelosi was toast early in 2009. I thought he was crazy. But she seems to have a big shovel, and a wish to not be Speaker. Maybe the President should have taken that advice.
There have been many private sector entities that have been intimitated into silence by the administration who could very well come back in September with all guns blazing to sink ObamaCare. Who’s afraid of August? I’d be more afraid of November 2010.
MarkN,
OK cool.
AJ:
Even Gallup has shown a big improvement for Republicans. Rasmussen has the Repulbicans ahead as does NPR. The generic balloting at RCP has the Democratic advantage way down, almost even. So it is not true when you say the Republicans are not getting any advantage from the Democrats failures.
After Congress goes into recess tomorrow, expect the stock market to continue up (it started up when the healthcare vote was delayed).
If Obama had delayed healthcare until after the budget had passed, the economy probably would have been looking good by now, instead “cap and tax” and health care have kept it “treading water” since May … and that isn’t Bush’s fault.
Ya think that if the economy numbers improves significantly early next year, will this help the Democrats in the elections next year?