Sep 01 2009
O-Bomba!
CNN came out with a truly crushing poll for Obama and the Democrats in Congress. As I noted in an earlier post, the 1994 Congressional drubbing the Dems took over Hillarycare is nothing compared to what they will reap over Obamacare and Obamanomics in 2010. The one thing that probably cushioned Bill Clinton’s from an even more crushing backlash by the voters was a screaming, growing economy (which would later burst with the dot.com bubble bust). With incredible economic growth to dampen the rejection, Clinton did not see as much of a backlash as President Obama and the Democrats will see in 2010 – that much is certain.
First, let’s compare an August 1996 poll from CNN which was well after Clinton and the Democrats lost Congress. It’s not quite the same time period, but it will do. This is after Hillarycare and after the liberals in Congress were handed their heads in 1994. Some interesting points to note are how Clinton had a 54-40% approval rating on the economy (+14%) but a 42-29% approval on health care (-7%).
Today Obama faces much worse numbers. On the economy Obama is 49-51% (-2%) – a swing from March of -21%! On health care Obama is 44-53% (-9%) – a swing of -25% from March! He has lost between a 5th and a quarter of the country’s support on these key issues in less than 6 months. It’s even worse on taxes (45-52%, -7% and a -32% swing since march) and the deficit (36-63%, -27% and a swing of -32% since March).
And who will the voters target to register their displeasure? The only signal they can send is a congressional drubbing of historic proportions in 2010 – and they seemed poised to do just that.
Update: Reader Frogg1 notes the latest Rasmussen generic ballot poll which confirms my opinion that the voters are ready to dump the Democrats – big time:
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 43% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.
That represents the lowest level of support for Democrats in recent years, while Republicans have tied their highest level of support for the third straight week.
That’s a -7%, and a -14% drop since the 2008 election when the Dems were +7%. I also want to note that while Rasmussen measures likely voters, the CNN poll was of ‘adults’, which means the likely voter picture is much worse for President Obama and his liberal Democrat Congress.
As David Brooks noted yesterday, when your Senate Majority Leader is in serious trouble while your party holds all three elected branches of government by wide margins your party has serious problems:
There are also warning signs in the Senate. A recent poll shows Harry Reid, the majority leader, trailing the Republican Danny Tarkanian, a possible 2010 opponent, by 49 percent to 38 percent. When your majority leader is down to a 38 percent base in his home state, that’s not good.
One wonders if the Liberals even realize what they’ve done to the Democrat party.
Now the question is, are there any really smart republicans standing in the wings?
Rasmussen: Democrats at lowest point in generic-ballot polling in years
http://hotair.com/archives/2009/09/01/rasmussen-democrats-at-lowest-point-in-generic-ballot-polling-in-years/
You know, Kathie, I still think the Repubs biggest problem is in messaging. Read this, and you’ll see what I mean:
THE CULT OF ICONOGRAPHY
http://pajamasmedia.com/ejectejecteject/
excerpt:
…..Exact same content. Different packaging. I believe the conservative message is, on balance, the most nutritious philosophical meal ever devised. But the packaging of that message has been an unmitigated disaster.
I’ve found a very good link, slightly off topic for this post but on topic for something you’ve written much about, the Stimulus Bill.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/159355-the-non-stimulating-stimulus-bill?source=from_friend
A VERY good financial analysis showing precisely why there is almost no actual stimulus coming from the “stimulus” bill, not now or ever. It was a sham that consisted of 88% transfer payments, which by definition are never “stimulating” to an economy.
For our nearly $1 trillion spent on this bill, the country is only going to get about $12 billion in actual stimulus spending in 2009. Yes, that is just over 1% of the total cost that is actually going to help economic activity.
“From my supply-side perspective, 88% of the stimulus bill (transfers and tax breaks) will amount to taking money from one person and giving it to another, while only 12% (spending on goods and services) will involve new government spending that absorbs (inefficiently) resources from the private sector.”
“As Mike noted in a paper last March, of the $88 billion in federal purchases of goods and services, “only about $12 billion will be spent in the current fiscal year, with only an additional $26 billion slated to be spent in 2010.” So we’re really talking small potatoes here.”