In what has to be a massive blow to the leftward fringes, Bob Woodward has confident (with accuracy in my opinion) that Novak’s source on Plame is outside the White House. Via Decision ’08, Tom Maguire discusses the scoop from this Harvard Crimson article:

But in a conversation at Harvard earlier this month, Woodward hinted that he knows the identity of yet another key player in the case: Robert D. Novak’s original source for his July 2003 column on Plame, which touched off the scandal in the first place.

“His source was not in the White House, I don’t believe,” Woodward said of Novak over a private dinner at the Institute of Politics on Dec. 5. He did not indicate what information, if any, he had to corroborate the claim.

I have long suspected the original source was not in the White House, which is why Fitzgerald’s wasted investigation is now totally irrelevant. Fitz Magoo couldn’t bring charges against the White House for exposing an agent’s identity because the identity was not exposed by the White House.

But doesn’t that mean someone is at fault for exposing Valerie’s position to the media, and therefore the public. Under a very interesting scenario, no one can be at fault under the statute. But first the question of source. Tom Maguire has his sights on Richard Armitage, as do a lot of people I respect.

But I have my doubts, and it goes back to what Novak recently said:

“I’m confident the president knows who the source is,” Novak said last Tuesday in North Carolina, according to a report in the Raleigh News & Observer. “I’d be amazed if he doesn’t.”

He continued, “So I say, don’t bug me. Don’t bug Bob Woodward. Bug the president as to whether he should reveal who the source is.”

What is not clear is what Novak is trying to say. Is he saying the Bush administration, through internal investigations or being tipped off by the source himself, has realized who Novak’s source is? Or is he saying Bush knows his source personally? Or is he saying both?

And what was key to Woodward’s source(s) [emphasis mine]:

Woodward gave a two-hour deposition to Fitzgerald under oath on Nov. 14, after failing to reveal for more than two years that he had been told in “mid-June 2003” by a current or former Bush administration official that Plame worked as an “analyst” at the CIA, according to a statement released by Woodward a day after he testified.

What is important to note is Woodward discussed three sources with Fitzgerald:

On Monday, November 14, I testified under oath in a sworn deposition to Special Counsel Patrick J. Fitzgerald for more than two hours about small portions of interviews I conducted with three current or former Bush administration officials that relate to the investigation of the public disclosure of the identity of undercover CIA officer Valerie Plame.

Which one is the source of the Plame leak is not known.

Well, now that we know the source is not in the White House each of these possibilities must be assessed again. What was Woodward researching in June 2003 that would cause him to go to the administration? The run up to Iraq:

The interviews were mostly confidential background interviews for my 2004 book “Plan of Attack” about the lead up to the Iraq war, ongoing reporting for The Washington Post and research for a book on Bush’s second term to be published in 2006.

For this subject Woodward would tap both pro and anti Iraq voices to balance the debate. The big name defector at the time was Rand Beers, who had only weeks earlier joined the Kerry campaign. In this previous post there is mention of a Washington Post June 16th article on Beers (now even more erased from the internet). So the WaPo knew of Beers, and Beers would be a great source for Woodward’s book, which comes out the Spring before the 2004 election. Perfect timing for Beers and Kerry.

The other thing is Beers knows that the still anonymous former Ambassador in the Pincus and Kristof articles his Kerry campaign co-worker Joe Wilson. And he knows about Valerie too:

Kerry’s advisers acknowledged yesterday that Wilson, who has also donated $2,000 to Kerry this year, told them about his allegations against the White House involving his wife before going public with them this summer. But Rand Beers, Kerry’s top adviser on foreign affairs, said the campaign has not played a role in coordinating Wilson’s charges.

Does anyone think Woodward is not working the breaking news of the Niger forgeries for a book about the run up to the Iraq war? Of course he was, and Rand Beers is much more likely to spill the beans than anyone inside the White House or administration at the time. The place never leaked from the top.

Beers could have been the source because he had Dick Clarke’s old job of Counter Terrorism- one relegated to below the National Security Advisor and out of sight of Bush during Bush’s first term. This would be enough cover to cause Novak to question whether Bush really knew him, or knew it was him. The National Security Council is not a White House only organization. And the Counter Terrorism Advisor is not necessarily a White House position.

But is Woodward saying Novak’s source was working in the administration outside the White House (Armitage) or simply outside the White House (Beers at the time)? Hard to tell.

I mentioned earlier that Valerie’s CIA role could be exposed under one scenario where no one can be charged with outing a clandestine CIA officer. And the hint comes from the response from Walter Pincus when Woodward tells him about Wilson and Plame:

I testified that after the mid-June 2003 interview, I told Walter Pincus, a reporter at The Post, without naming my source, that I understood Wilson’s wife worked at the CIA as a WMD analyst. Pincus does not recall that I passed this information on.

The reason Pincus doesn’t remember is probably because, when he heard the news from Woodward, he already knew about Valerie. I contend Pincus has Valerie as a source supporting Joe’s accusations. Which leads us to why no law was broken. If Valerie is the source for Pincus and Kristof, and Beers and Clarke know about her role, then she is responsible for losing her cover herself. And that is why there are no charges coming out of Fitzgerald’s Grand Juries on outing Valerie.