Virginia is an interesting state to say the least – and my home state, being one of those rarest of rare: a NOVA (Northern Virginia) native. It has enormous ties to ‘fly over’ America. It has a conservative core that is right of center in its center of mass.

But it also exists right outside DC, so it has insider knowledge into the few strengths and many weaknesses of the federal government and the power players that circle the town. It is a good barometer of where independents are heading. It is home of George Washington and Thomas Jefferson. It’s state constitution, crafted in Williamsburg, was clearly a major source for the US constitution given the identical wording and thrust of the two documents. It elected the first black governor, while turning down far left and far right candidates for statewide and national office with admirable regularity.

VA started going blueish purple around 2004 when the far right started haranguing moderates and independents. For a state that is primarily centrist and moderate (still with a strong conservative core running through it) those purity wars signaled a shift to people claiming they would be more inclusive, more compromising.

And anyone who claims it was the Iraq war are kidding themselves. This state is heavy with military tradition and families. From Norfolk ‘s massive Atlantic Naval Base to the Marine base at Quantico to the Pentagon itself, the military family is deeply rooted in the state. We knew Iraq was not only winnable, but was being won when the far left was running around trying to surrender to one and all in 2007.

So when you look at VA you do not see pendulum swings, you see more methodical shifts. You also see one of the most politically savvy and knowledgeable group of voters in the country, if not the world. And not just US politics, but world politics. We are a tough crowd to garner support from. We are very smart buyers when it comes to politicians. After all, we are immersed in the entire process.

News is out today that the bell weather that is Virginia is ringing loudly the arrival of a large political shift in the electorate:

McDonnell leads 53 to 44 percent among likely voters, expanding on the four-point lead he held in mid-September. Deeds’s advantage with female voters has all but disappeared, and McDonnell has grown his already wide margin among independents.

…

The poll indicates that the GOP is well-positioned to emphatically end a recent Democratic winning streak, with Republicans Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli each holding identical 49 to 40 percent leads over Democrats Jody Wagner and Steve Shannon for lieutenant governor and attorney general.

A sweep of Virginia’s top offices with crushing margins is not some fluke. And it is the independents pushing this new direction. A companion story in the WaPo explains why this is not just limited to The Commonwealth of Virginia:

The poll shows a lack of enthusiasm among many of the voters who propelled Obama and his party to victory last November, raising troubling questions for the Democrats …

The story assumes the Dems actually care what the voters want  and do not want. The liberal zealots have proven over and over again that is not the case. Think things are bad now? Wait until we get through the next 6 months of double digit unemployment and the support for the Dems will really be in the tank.

Virginia is, after all, only an early indicator. The actual end result could be much ‘more’ than the data currently indicates.

Tags: 2010 Elections, VA Governor Elections