Oct 09 2009
Virginia Is Going Back To Reddish Purple
Virginia is an interesting state to say the least – and my home state, being one of those rarest of rare: a NOVA (Northern Virginia) native. It has enormous ties to ‘fly over’ America. It has a conservative core that is right of center in its center of mass.
But it also exists right outside DC, so it has insider knowledge into the few strengths and many weaknesses of the federal government and the power players that circle the town. It is a good barometer of where independents are heading. It is home of George Washington and Thomas Jefferson. It’s state constitution, crafted in Williamsburg, was clearly a major source for the US constitution given the identical wording and thrust of the two documents. It elected the first black governor, while turning down far left and far right candidates for statewide and national office with admirable regularity.
VA started going blueish purple around 2004 when the far right started haranguing moderates and independents. For a state that is primarily centrist and moderate (still with a strong conservative core running through it) those purity wars signaled a shift to people claiming they would be more inclusive, more compromising.
And anyone who claims it was the Iraq war are kidding themselves. This state is heavy with military tradition and families. From Norfolk ‘s massive Atlantic Naval Base to the Marine base at Quantico to the Pentagon itself, the military family is deeply rooted in the state. We knew Iraq was not only winnable, but was being won when the far left was running around trying to surrender to one and all in 2007.
So when you look at VA you do not see pendulum swings, you see more methodical shifts. You also see one of the most politically savvy and knowledgeable group of voters in the country, if not the world. And not just US politics, but world politics. We are a tough crowd to garner support from. We are very smart buyers when it comes to politicians. After all, we are immersed in the entire process.
News is out today that the bell weather that is Virginia is ringing loudly the arrival of a large political shift in the electorate:
McDonnell leads 53 to 44 percent among likely voters, expanding on the four-point lead he held in mid-September. Deeds’s advantage with female voters has all but disappeared, and McDonnell has grown his already wide margin among independents.
…
The poll indicates that the GOP is well-positioned to emphatically end a recent Democratic winning streak, with Republicans Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli each holding identical 49 to 40 percent leads over Democrats Jody Wagner and Steve Shannon for lieutenant governor and attorney general.
A sweep of Virginia’s top offices with crushing margins is not some fluke. And it is the independents pushing this new direction. A companion story in the WaPo explains why this is not just limited to The Commonwealth of Virginia:
The poll shows a lack of enthusiasm among many of the voters who propelled Obama and his party to victory last November, raising troubling questions for the Democrats …
The story assumes the Dems actually care what the voters want  and do not want. The liberal zealots have proven over and over again that is not the case. Think things are bad now? Wait until we get through the next 6 months of double digit unemployment and the support for the Dems will really be in the tank.
Virginia is, after all, only an early indicator. The actual end result could be much ‘more’ than the data currently indicates.
VA started going blueish purple around 2004 when the far right started haranguing moderates and independents. For a state that is primarily centrist and moderate (still with a strong conservative core running through it) those purity wars signaled a shift to people claiming they would be more inclusive, more compromising.
Keep telling yourself this, over and over.
By the way, a great post on the true unemployment numbers.
And yet..Virginia sent Jim Webb to the senate.
And yet..Virginia rejected George Allen for the nonword maccaca.
And yet…Virginia gave it’s majority votes to Obama.
I wouldn’t write off the stupidity of the Virginia based Washington bureaucracy in northern Virginia.
Doug Stewart’s Story
George W. Bush had just been re-elected to a second term, but his remark, “the Constitution is nothing but a G.. D… piece of paper”, really turned me off, but I had not voted for a Democrat since I was compelled into the Kingdom of God on the evening of 8/19/85.
Being a Virginia native and devotee of Southern history and heritage, though I went along for the ride after my conversion, I had always had a problem with “the Party of Lincoln”. Bush’s desire to expand the U.S. Empire abroad showed me what one of the big problems was. I began doing some research.
Seeing the reprobate Democratic platform, especially where abortion and homosexuality were concerned, I knew I needed to select a third party. The Libertarian Party was eliminated because they’ll believe anything. More research showed me that the Constitution Party was tailor-made for me. I’ve now been a member for nearly five years, and am more politically active here than I ever was with the Republican Party.
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=33826
snip:
Look at the Senate races. The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), led by Sen. John Cornyn, has already endorsed in half a dozen Republican primaries, with more to come. Solid conservatives with great credentials — new faces, future leaders, threats to the party elite — were already announced candidates in many of these races. But Cornyn and his cronies aren’t about to let the rank and file choose the candidates — too risky. A man of the people might slip through and too many of them could lead to government by the people.
In Florida, the NRSC endorsed Gov. Charlie Crist, an Arlen Specter Republican, who is running against a young conservative Cuban-American Marco Rubio. Rubio was a long shot but the NRSC endorsement so outraged conservatives nationwide it breathed new life into his campaign.
In Colorado, District Attorney Ken Buck, a tough prosecutor of illegal aliens, was gaining traction in his campaign for U.S. Senate. Enter John McCain. He calls Jane Norton, former Lt Governor and state chairman of his presidential bid, and convinces her to run against Buck, promising the NRSC endorsement, plenty of money, and a lock on the nomination. Le Moine Dowd, a grassroots activist, summed it up perfectly: “Do we want the NRSC deciding our candidate? Does this action by the NRSC make the primary election irrelevant? Does it make the Colorado Republican Party irrelevant?â€
In Ohio, Rob Portman, a former pro-amnesty congressman and Bush trade rep, announced his bid for the U.S. Senate earlier this year. Then Tom Ganley, a conservative businessman from Cleveland infuriated by the massive uncontrolled spending of Washington, decided to run. Mortal sin, declared the party, which told this self-made successful businessman to get out of the race, that “the U.S. Senate isn’t an entry level position.†The NRSC endorsed Portman and are in full campaign mode. (Do these nitwits really think one of the architects of the Bush policy that sent our jobs overseas is going to win the general election in a state with 11% unemployment?)
This same scenario is being repeated in a dozen other states. The political bosses are adamant that our candidates look and talk like them — the kind that will get in line behind them. Leaders that rise up out of the rebellion and run for office will be a problem for them. So the snakes are out to stop them.
Neither the “R” Jersey, nor the “D” Jersey seem to be with the actual voters anymore.
BarbaraS,
Watch it, you are hitting close to home (literally). The problem with Webb was his challenger. Allen has been a bumbling fool for years, his time was coming no matter what silliness he uttered.
Like I said, we are bell weather of what is to come and we don’t go into the fringes (either side).
If you want to govern, look to VA. If you are for a cause uber alles, look someplace else.
There is no doubt that voters are fed up and troubled by the Democrats. Problem is, most polls show an electorate even more disgusted with Republican know-nothingness, and GOP party leadership is in shambles and a joke.
It may be a big mistake to look for much change in the balance of power in Congress in 2010.
Friendly correction: It’s bellwether, not bell weather. And it doesn’t have to do with the climate:
A bellwether is any entity in a given arena that serves to create or influence trends or to presage future happenings.
The term is derived from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) leading its flock of sheep. The movements of the flock could be noted by hearing the bell before the flock was in sight.
Thanks Stevevvs, Exactly the reason I filled out the recent NRSC
“survey” and in the obligatory donation area wrote:
“I donate to Sarah Palin and conservative candidates not the losers of the John McCain model. You gave us Dole, McCain and countless others in the House and Senate that are just Dem Lites so no more money for parties! I give to the candidates of my choice directly, in or out of my state, courageous citizens like Joe Wilson.
Leaders, reformers, citizens, not carreer panderers and politically connected politicians.
Right now my money goes to Sarah get on board or get run over !”
I mailed it back in ther postage paid envelope. The two parties are playin a game and runnin up the debt. We need to make them accountable.
Alas I fear they have so padded their pockets at taxpayer expense, so lavished taxpayer funds to themselves for their own re-elections that this will be hard to do.
Mccain/ Feingold was great for incumbants thanks for that John McCain!
There is another election that also bears watching. Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher was appointed to a position at the State Department by Obama and a special election will be held next month in California US House District 10. The polling is actually pretty close with the worst polling for the Republican showing him behind by only 6 points in a district where Republicans have nearly a 15 point disadvantage in registration. It appears that Independent voters are bailing on the Democrats.
And if you have a spare $10 lying around, you can contribute to his campaign here.
Medved said it best: a conservative message with a moderate voice is a recipe for victory.
The far right has too many maccacas.
stevevvs
that phrase that you quote by Doug Stewart about George Bush just above about the constitution:
I had never heard of Bush saying that and I don’t believe he ever said it. I’m pretty sure it would have been all over the news, but surprisingly a full google search and a google ‘news’ search reveals that the only mention of it is in “doug stewart’s” supposed statement.
so if you know it happened, please supply some detail or quit using the quote.
From your post to God’s ears, but remember–Hussein and his thug congress will create 30 million new democrat voters between now and the 2010 election by declaring Mexicans to be Americans. And as Eric Holder has ruled Black Panthers may legally intimidate voters, SEIU and ACORN members will undoubtedly join in the fun at polls nationwide. As tragic and frightening as it may be, don’t be surprised to see democrats GAIN seats next year. After all, life in a free country was nice, but it’s all over now, unless or until actual Americans take up arms and reclaim their nation.
I am also seeing how the various state legislatures do over the next few years.
We need to fire the Democrats at all levels of government.
I think people are catching onto the fact that the Democrats will cost them money, a lot of money.
And I don’t think the Republicans really want to pick someone in leadership and make them a target right now. They are the opposition party, and it is their job right now to go after the majority, and that is what they are doing.
People who say they do not have plans of their own should keep in mind that the Democrats did not win because they had a better idea, they won because people were ready to get rid of the other party. That can happen in reverse too.
OLDPUPYY:
There is no way that the Democrats are going to wave a magic wand and create 30 million voters. Not even ACORN could pull that off.
And besides, there are not even 30 million illegals here.
It would take them years just to figure out the freaking paperwork.
steve:
I do not believe that Bush ever said any such thing. It is that kind of crap that helped get Obama elected.
And you know what? The Constitution is a piece of paper, it is our faith in it, our willingness to fight and die for it, our love of it, that makes it unique..and I believe that when Bush took that oath to protect and defend the Constitution that he meant it, I am not so sure about Barack Obama.