There is a stunner of a poll out today from Fox News (story here, poll here). It shows some very bad numbers for our young President and the Democrats in Congress. Check out this data (click to enlarge):

With Republicans Obama went from an approve-disapprove differential of -34% (28/62) in early June to a -71% (11/82) by mid October. That is a shift of 37%, or over one third of the Republicans moving away from the President.

While this is expected given the GOP is the opposition party, there is an even bigger shift with the independents. In early June Obama had an approve-disapprove of +40% (66/26). Now that has slipped to a -5% (42/47) – a shift of 45%! Nearly half of all independents moved away from Obama since the health care debate began raging and while the unemployment picture (i.e., ‘the economy stupid’) was still flailing. That is a sea change if there ever was one.

Worse yet, President Obama has slipped below the 50% mark, which is below is electoral win percentage. This is emphasized in another number from the poll:

In what may be the ultimate job rating, 43 percent of voters say that they would vote to re-elect President Obama if the 2012 election were held today, down from 52 percent six months ago, from April 22-23, 2009.

If he faced re-election today, Obama probably would not win. He is too close to 40%, a support level which usually means doom for incumbents.

Another stunner from the story, Congress’ approval ratings are also plummeting:

Most Americans are unhappy with Congress these days — 66 percent disapprove, including 45 percent of Democrats, 77 percent of independents and 84 percent of Republicans. Overall, less than one of four Americans, 24 percent, approve of the job Congress is doing.

Emphasis mine. Since mid May Congress went from -8% (41/49) to a -42% (66/24). What is clear from the details above is that the Independents are shifting, at least in their perspective on Congress, towards the GOP. Their disapprove numbers on Congress are very near the GOP disapprove numbers, and nowhere near the Democrat numbers (which are pretty damn high for the own party’s Congress).

And the Fox numbers look great when compared to the latest Gallup congressional numbers:

These approval ratings are getting to the same levels that saw the GOP drummed out of power. People keep forgetting that the big difference between 1994 (the last time the Dems were drummed out of power) and 2010 is the economy and unemployment. Right now it is horrible compared to back then.

To make matters even worse, Congress seems uncaring as to the public’s concerns on health care. Ed Morrissey has more highlights, including negatives on policies like health care and economy. He also has these two results (click to enlarge):

These are horrible numbers for Democrats to be facing as they try and shove government rationed health care – including serious cuts in seniors’ options, higher taxes and higher premiums – down the throat of Americans. Only one third support their approach (whatever that really is) and well over half disapprove (Q.27).

51% want to keep the current system and only 34% want to change it for something different (Q.29). Among Independents – the ones who chose which side wins elections – the numbers show 53% want to keep what we have and only 28% want to go with the Democrat’s risky, liberal scheme. The message: No Change!

Given these numbers 2010 could be a historic debacle for the left. Because one final question is worth reviewing: will the public be voting Democrat or Republican next fall? In May the Dems were up +12% (47-35). Late September the had slid to +5% (40-35). By mid October, they are -4% (38-42). These trend lines are pointing towards a Democrat debacle, so I expect to see a lot of jumping ship here soon as the Dems try and save themselves from their party’s young President and failed Congressional leaders.

Tags: 2010 election, Congressional Approval, Obamacare, President's Approval