Oct 28 2009
This fall’s elections in VA, NJ and NY-23 are turning out to be really bad for the Democrats. In NJ and NY-23 there are two candidates opposing the Democrats, yet the combined anti-Democrat vote is not in doubt. And it is not pretty.Â This is not a surprising response from the nation’s electorate given the liberal policies the Democrat party as been pushing all year – such as failed liberal experiment for stimulating job growth through sluggish and wasteful government spending to the liberal desire to destroy our free market health care system and replace it with government rationed care.
To appreciate the backlash, though, it is best to look at VA were there are only two candidates, not three. This gives us a clearer GOP-Dem view of the dynamics playing out.
The recent polling coming out is stunning even to me. A new SurveyUSA poll has the GOP candidate McDonnell up 17%, while a newÂ Democrat polling firm PPP has him 15%. Just by itself those numbers would represent record wins in VA, a state which only a year ago gave Democrat Obama a turn at the White House by 6% (53-47).Â The internals between these two polls are strikingly similar, giving me high confidence in their respective detailed data. And that is where the story becomes interesting – in the details.
First off it is clear who is deciding this race – independents. They swung Democrat last year to give Obama a rare Presidential Democrat win in VA (something Clinton never pulled off). But they have reversed course in droves this fall.Â In the PPP poll independents (“other’) are supporting the GOP candidate by 25% (59-34). In the Survey USA poll it is 22% (60-38). Â The Dem/Rep numbers are pegged in their usual polarized positions. Given that GOP-Dems have pretty much parity across the state the message is clear. Democrats are losing independents in large numbers.
Another indicator is the over 45 crowd – who vote in large numbers in off year and mid term elections. In the PPP poll the 46 to 65 year old crowd support the GOP candidate by 14% (55-41), and for the over 65 voters he is up 18% (57-39). SurveyUSA cuts off the younger age group at 50-65, but the GOP lead is still in the same general range – up 15% (57-42). In the over 65 group SurveyUSA has McDonnell up 22% (60-38). Message – Democrats have lost the seniors and soon to be seniors.
And finally let’s look at race. I have made the argument before that the election of Barack Obama to the Presidency might loosen the hold the Democrats have on the African American voters, and finally give them a chance to vote their personal views versus their racial conscience. Both survey show identical levels of support.Â In the PPP survey McDonnell is getting 19% of the African American vote and in the SurveyUSA poll he is getting 21%. These are good numbers for a GOP candidate in VA. If the actual results are higher next week that will be a political shock wave.
If you sum all these together you get a GOP crush in VA. More importantly, VA is a purple bell weather state. If this is an indicator of things to come then the Democrats are heading for electoral disaster in 2010. If you average the lead in the 45+/50+ crowd for the GOP candidate it is runs at over 17%. If you average the lead with independents it is 23.5%. No Democrat can win a moderate or swing district or state facing these numbers.
I do think this is a backlash and not something local. The SurveyUSA poll is for the top 3 VA statewide offices being contested. In all 3 the numbers are the same. While Deeds ran a poor campaign he is not the root cause of this. And I go back to the anti-democrat numbers in NJ and NY-23. In those races there are three candidates, two splitting the backlash vote. The pro-democrat vote is hovering around 40% in NJ – a deep blue state. I would guess NY-23 is about the same. Same as VA.
Further evidence is the recent Gallup poll on ideology, where conservatism and ‘moderate’ just crush liberals.
I heard on Chris Plant’s radio show that the number of ‘strong conservatives’ (i.e., pure ‘true conservatives’) was miniscule in the Gallup poll, not even reaching 10% and on parity with the strong liberals. If anyone can find the internals please post it in the comments. This would indicate to me people are still staying out of the political fringes.
This has always been a center-right country (note the parity between ‘center’ and ‘right’). It is no surprise the dramatic and failed shift to the left by the Democrats is getting a counter-balancing rush to the right by the electorate. Â If there is a law of political equilibrium in real democracies, this is the year to see it in action. When the leaders go too far in one direction, the electorate compensates. The farther the leaders go off track, the stronger the correction.
The liberals in DC have gone too far on all fronts from failed stimulus, to the take overs of companies and dictating salaries, to energy taxes to fight the mythical global warming, to the open desire to give us crappy government run health care. As someone noted on Plant’s show yesterday, the liberal have done such a great job with public housing who can wait to see them run down our health services! They went too far left (just as the GOP went too far right).
The law of political equilibrium, as applied by the electoral center, is about to go into action again.
The liberals in DC are cocooned in their elitist bubble and either don’t know or don’t care about the building backlash in the country. They are pushing policies that have no broad support and what they did pass have failed. The GOP is turning VA red because (a) the candidate is running in a moderate position and (b) the nation is ready to shift horses again. No amount of spin or denial is going to change the reality – America has had it with liberals and progressives.
Update: Revenge of the centrists: moderate democrats and republicans are lining up against the liberal Senate health care bill:
Democratic moderates who control the balance of power on health care legislation balked Tuesday at a government-run insurance option for millions of Americans …
Despite the obvious obstacles, senior Democrats cast Reid’s draft legislation as a turning point in the yearlong campaign to enact PresidentÂ Barack Obama’s top domestic priority.
Even the media knows that “Senior Democrat” means hard core liberal fringe, while “Democrat Moderates” control the debate. Too funny.
Update: Latest USA Today/Gallup poll on Obama anniversary shows serious erosion for the President. There is a lot of wait and see still out there, but the fact is Obama cannot change things any more – not for the better. The liberals naively threw out that stupid stimulus bill in the ignorant confidence it would work. That was their only hope and it failed as I predicted it would. The jobs will not come back anytime soon. People can wait as long as they like, but I know what they will see at the end because that was put in motion (slow motion) in February.