Nov 04 2009
GOP Way Forward
NY-23 illustrated an interesting decision path for the GOP. There are two paths available, and the decision on which path to take is up to the far right ‘true’ conservatives who spout such bonding terms as RINO.
If the far right can respectfully align with the centrists, the first path forward was illustrated in VA and NJ. A coalition of a center to far right can easily win big as centrists and ‘true’ conservatives come together to oppose the liberal democrats.
But if the far right is still stuck on purity and want to start a 3rd party then we have the second path. There are plenty of left of center democrats and independents who are fed up with the hyper partisan fringe wars. One party will disintegrate into two camps – the fringe and the centrists. Whichever party does break up will be perfectly positioned to beat both fringes.
Liberals are the smallest political group in America. If they take over the Democrat Party they will drop down to 20% of the vote in most areas. If the far right goes 3rd party they will drop down to 20% of the vote in most areas. That leaves 60% of the voters in the center for a center right GOP to sweep elections. Again, you can see this in the voting trends where centrists went to the GOP who ran as moderates and not fire breathing conservatives (and yes, I still count myself as a conservative).
It is all up to the Hannity wing of the conservative movement. They either work within a broad coalition and participate in leading this nation or they become pure and marginal. It is their call, the voters have made it clear which way they prefer to go.
Update: Michael Barone breaks down the advantage of a broad centrist to far right coalition in reviewing the numbers. McDonnell and the other candidates in VA ran as small government conservatives, shunning the social conservative image. And it worked with beyond expectations with historic landslides and a broad political realignment. I know which path I prefer, but as a centrist conservative I must admit either path is a path out of the current mess. I suspect a lot of the Tea Partiers are with me in that they want to throw the hyper partisans out.
Update: Another good analysis of why it is the centrists that control the destiny of any party and this country. Anyone still trying to purge the centrists from their party should be put on a political suicide watch.
AJ, I think you are too hard on conservatives. You are beating us up for not wanting a candidate like Dede. She was left of the Dem Owens, she has been on record for everything Obama wants. How would a vote for her done one thing for us? Instead of giving people like her the moderate label, why don’t you call her for the liberal she is. The conservatives like myself are not into purity and extremism, I just know a Democrat when I see one, a liberal one at that. Would you have wanted her to win and then run for re-election in 2010? It would help to keep in mind the unique circumstances of that particular race.
I love your writings and think you are brilliant on many issues, I just feel you are being way too hard on the people like myself who call ourselves conservatives. Why don’t you go after the liberals in GOP clothing? BTW, as a resident of Virginia I very happily cast my ballot for our wonderful ticket here.
Penguin,
I am a conservative, not just a far right conservative. I would never assume my views should be shared by all.
Dede was a liberal – no two ways about it. But the arrogance and insults that came with her withdrawal put off the voters of NY-23. Palin had it right when she asked the conservatives to come together. But that was beyond the ‘true’ conservatives.
They blew it in the same way they got dumped in 2006 and 2008. Think about it. To be so repulsed you vote in a Democrat? My only mistake in the 2006 and 2008 election predictions is I underestimated the repulsion of the electorate to the far right. I was too Pollyannish. I assumed centrists could weather the denigrating yapping of the far right.
I have learned my lesson. The centrists really don’t like the far right. To win you have to understand your strengths and weaknesses. I don’t want the liberals to win anymore. Tough love.
I believe your analysis on NY-23 is wrong. The message is that the National Republican Party can’t pick the candidate they want to represent the GOP ticket. The representatives are there to represent the district. The people in the district have the right to choose who will represent them.
In a cleared field, Owens (D) might still have prevailed, but by promoting DeDe (R) who was further left than Owens (D) the party was making the locals choose between a caucus vote that would vote with the Obama administration, or against their caucus and with the (D) caucus, but against most of Obama’s proposals. Many people speculated that DeDe intended to change parties in DC anyway.
It was the national party that forced the ticket split by not giving the local Republicans the option of choosing their own candidate.
NewEnglandDevil,
First off, the national GOP did not pick the candidate. I said many times it was a dumb move by the local GOP.
When the national leaders tried to come in and save the situation, a bunch of arrogant mouths on the far right blew by repeating their name calling.
Dede was liberal – no two ways about it. But she was not as toxic as the far right! Check the vote count.
Didn’t mention…. the DeDe absentee vote and that portion of the populace that voted (R) b/c they didn’t think the (C) had a chance (3rd parties almost always lose) would probably have tipped the balance to Hoffman in a field consisting solely of Owens (D) and Hoffman (R). It was the national party that split the ticket, not the “far right”.
Everything I’ve read shows that it was State level GOP and national GOP that chose DeDe – including the fact that national GOP PR firms were running her ad campaigns (poorly). This was not the local GOP choice. She was shepherded through the system by connected State GOP for the Nat’l GOP.
Notice how he ignores the results of the Moderates in N.C. Not just yesterday election results, but those of 2006 and 2008.
Notice the arrogance of what Hoffman was up against:
1. Unions. Have grown up there, I know the power and intimidation. The Grocery Stores, from P&C Foods, to Tops, to Price Chopper: All UNION.
The State County, and most City workers: UNION
The Teachers: UNION
2. Hoffman was an independent, not a GOP Candidate. He lacked the Money and Organization of the major Parties, and got over 45% of the vote.
3. The GOP Candidate, endorsed the Dem. Candidate.
THE BIG TENT THEORY:
Now, this big-tent thing. The current leaders who cannot be named of the Republican Party have built such a big tent on the advice of the Democrats, that nobody’s in it. Let me explain this, ’cause this is another profundity, ladies and gentlemen. We’ve had all these people, all these years say, “You know, you Republicans, you’re too rock-ribbed conservative. You got too many pro-lifers. You got too many religious right people in there and the angry talk show people. You got a gotta spread out!” The Democrats, the liberals, the media, tell the Republicans, “You gotta have a bigger tent. You gotta attract independents in that party and you gotta have moderates in that party. You can’t continue to grow, you can’t continue to exist if all you are is conservatives.”
Of course, the Republicans who want to get along with those people say, “Yeah, yeah, it’s a good point.” So big tent. And we went out there, we did everything we could to attract all those people. Right? We nominated all the right people. General Powell even out there showing us how to do it by endorsing a Democrat. So we’ve got this giant big tent out there, built on the advice of Democrats in the media but nobody’s in it. General Powell left the tent. Christopher Buckley left the tent. David Brooks left the big tent. Chuck Hagel left the tent. McCain left the tent. McCain’s out there saying he wants to rebuild the Republican Party in a moderate image. Lindsey Grahamnesty left the tent. I mean, when you line up with John Kerry or whoever he lined up with on cap and trade, you don’t call yourself a Republican.
Arlen Specter left the tent. In many ways George W. Bush left the tent. Peggy Noonan left the tent. Newt Gingrich left the tent. Joe Lieberman! He was in the tent but he left. By the way, Dingy Harry’s out there saying (doing Reid impression), “Ah, don’t worry about Joe. At the end of the day Joe will be there voting for me.” Told you. So Christopher Buckley leaves, Colin Powell leaves, Chuck Hagel leaves, McCain leaves, Lindsey Grahamnesty leaves, Arlen Specter leaves, George W. Bush walked out , Noonan left, Newt left, Lieberman walked out of the tent, and a lot of real conservatives walked out of the tent, too, and said, “To hell with it!” So we got this giant big tent. Well, what the hell good is it if nobody’s inside? There’s no one inside the tent. Nature abhors a vacuum, and conservatives and independents are filling that vacuum today. So these smartest people in the room on our side, they built that tent just like the Democrats in the media told them and there’s nobody in it now.
AJ: But if the far right is still stuck on purity and want to start a 3rd party then we have the second path.
This is where your wrong. Personally, If someone is 80% with my beliefs, they get my vote. I don’t know anyone that isn’t pretty much the same.
Limbaugh will say Conservatives won in Va. and you say they are Moderates.
Anyone else from Va. that can give their opinion?
AJ: I am a conservative, not just a far right conservative.
What is Far Right?
Is it a belief in Federalism? [States Rights]
Is it a belief in the Constitution, as written?
Is it a belief in the Rule of Law?
Is it a belief in God?
Is it a belief in Individual Rights?
Is it a belief in Faith, Family, Freedom?
Is it a belief in Live, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness?
If that is the Far Right, I’m a proud member.
What’s the fuss? McDonnell and Christie are people that Rush and Hannity supported.
AJ, I don’t think you are a RINO!
Dede was truly a rino in that she would not be voting as a majority of republicans. Is it true she was thinking of switching parties way before this election? Arlen Spector was the same. He had been a democrat, for crying out loud. THAT is what bothers all of us, does it not?
I think the RINO name does not apply as you say AJ because we are all in agreement on so much here. What percentage of the right is “far right”? And how is that defined?
And AJ, I have listened to Rush almost everyday for 8 years, maybe missing 5 days per year. He is about FISCAL conservatism much more than social/religious. He hardly EVER talks about religion and in fact, has said he doesn’t like to talk about it. Wouldn’t we all agree with that?
He supported Bush often when others did not. He considers himself a personal friend of George’s.
ivehadit: What percentage of the right is “far right� And how is that defined?
BINGO!
I think it’s defined as anyone to the right of AJ. That’s all I can figure.
ivehadit: A – Men!
Another part that I think he’s missing is that the “big tent” always involves including people who want to put more power in DC’s hands and less power in individuals’ hands.
Separate that issue from all other issues. Put the biggest tent in place at the local level-that makes sense. But the core value has to be: federalism and individual freedom. That is the foundation that you build your party structure on. Whatever you want to do at the local level – fine! Pro gay-marriage? Sure. Pro-choice? As long as it is on the local level.
For truly national issues like immigration enforcement, you get power and work out a compromise within the party that everyone can sign onto – and you propose it to the American people honestly. You will have to have some level of punishment – probably monetary. Maybe illegals will be welcome to stay but they can NEVER become citizens. You come down hard with draconian punishment and enforcement against violent illegal aliens. Non-violent criminal illegals that facilitated illegal acts (e.g. forgery, ID theft) also get tough punishment and enforcement. Regular Jose’s that, at most, gave documents to an employer to get a job (ie did not provide docs to another worker, but for themselves) get the minimalist treatment (ie monetary fine).
NewEnglandDevil: Put the biggest tent in place at the local level-that makes sense. But the core value has to be: federalism and individual freedom. That is the foundation that you build your party structure on.
A – Men!
By the way, the Big Tent Posting was from Rush Yesterday. I just thought it accurate.
Rush: The Dem base did not turn out in Va. The Rep base did. Who is the Rep Base? Conservatives.
[…] RINO Spin Masters are up early this morning explaining that Virginia was won because of the moderate. Don’t […]
I’ll add in one more part.
I’m kinda dreaming about running for office at some point. Here’s a proposal I’d have, what do you guys think?
As quickly as possible, cut funding to all federal programs that based on the 10th amendment should be administered at the state or local level. Certain programs that have local representation (e.g. EPA) would have the personnel directly transferred to the state regulatory agency. EPA (for instance) would still have jurisdiction on air pollution, water pollution for waterways that are state boundaries or that cross state lines, Indian reservations and federal lands.
All monies collected from the populace of a state, or, all monies that are normally allocated to programs assigned to a state, minus a percentage used to cover truly federal programs, are returned to the general funds of the states.
Once the money is allocated to each state, the IRS would provide detailed data to the state indicating what the tax rates would be in that state that would make up the total funding previously sent to the gov’t from that state. Parallel to this, the IRS determines what the tax rate would be for the federal gov’t to tax STATE receipts in order to pay for federal programs.
Eliminate the federal income tax and move to a state tax. (Let the feds and the states fight it out).
Thoughts?
Rush: The highest percentage of the Vote by an independent candidate in N.Y. history. [He thinks]
He’s talkin to AJ now..