Nov 04 2009
GOP Way Forward
NY-23 illustrated an interesting decision path for the GOP. There are two paths available, and the decision on which path to take is up to the far right ‘true’ conservatives who spout such bonding terms as RINO.
If the far right can respectfully align with the centrists, the first path forward was illustrated in VA and NJ. A coalition of a center to far right can easily win big as centrists and ‘true’ conservatives come together to oppose the liberal democrats.
But if the far right is still stuck on purity and want to start a 3rd party then we have the second path. There are plenty of left of center democrats and independents who are fed up with the hyper partisan fringe wars. One party will disintegrate into two camps – the fringe and the centrists. Whichever party does break up will be perfectly positioned to beat both fringes.
Liberals are the smallest political group in America. If they take over the Democrat Party they will drop down to 20% of the vote in most areas. If the far right goes 3rd party they will drop down to 20% of the vote in most areas. That leaves 60% of the voters in the center for a center right GOP to sweep elections. Again, you can see this in the voting trends where centrists went to the GOP who ran as moderates and not fire breathing conservatives (and yes, I still count myself as a conservative).
It is all up to the Hannity wing of the conservative movement. They either work within a broad coalition and participate in leading this nation or they become pure and marginal. It is their call, the voters have made it clear which way they prefer to go.
Update: Michael Barone breaks down the advantage of a broad centrist to far right coalition in reviewing the numbers. McDonnell and the other candidates in VA ran as small government conservatives, shunning the social conservative image. And it worked with beyond expectations with historic landslides and a broad political realignment. I know which path I prefer, but as a centrist conservative I must admit either path is a path out of the current mess. I suspect a lot of the Tea Partiers are with me in that they want to throw the hyper partisans out.
Update: Another good analysis of why it is the centrists that control the destiny of any party and this country. Anyone still trying to purge the centrists from their party should be put on a political suicide watch.
I agree with a lot of the talk going around that the candidate selection process needs to involve the population of the jurisdiction, not just the political elite. Had there been a primary in the district, things might have turned out differently. Even a system like California used in the CA-10 special election was better. We had a preliminary election with several candidates of a bunch of different parties running. If one got 50% of the vote they won but if not, the top two would face off in November and that is what we had.
This would eliminate the problem in NY-23 where the party honchos “decided” the candidate. Let the people pick the candidate. Have a primary or a preliminary.
I’m not sure that the “way forward” requires any conscious effort on the part of Republicans. Liberalism and the Democratic party are both self-immolating. A discussion of the “far right”, “center left”, etc. etc., seems to me now to be so irrelevant, so…..day before yesterday.
If yesterday revealed anything, it revealed that the mushy middle is no longer so mushy. Virginia and New Jersey elected pro-life, anti gay-marriage pols, and their election had nothing to do with those issues. Voters essentially said-“give us our freedom back, and you can have intimate relations with farm animals if that’s what you want to do-we don’t care about anything but getting our freedom back.”
http://www.vdare.com/pb/091104_ny23.htm
AJ,
You are wrong in your analysis.
NY-23 is a classic example of the fact that politics starts with people and relationships, and never stops being about people and relationships.
Idealogues forget that.
Real politicians don’t, and they win because of it.
The GOP as a group — left, moderate center, or the various flavors of right wing — are unclear on this concept.
I read on several political web sites that no GOP official called Dede Scozzafava to console her after she withdrew.
No GOP national figure.
No GOP NY state figure.
None of the 11 GOP county chairmen who nominated her.
Not conservitive party candidate Doug Hoffman (Which marked him as not ready for prime time as a congressional candidate).
_NOT_A_SINGLE_ONE_.
Senator Shumer, the senior Democrat from New York, did, plus a number of other Democrats.
Dede Scozzafava endorsed Owen’s as a result and late deciders in the NY-23rd broke 3-to-1 for Owens and another 6% of local Republicans voted for Scozzafava in protest.
The story that comes to mind here is how Senator Harry Byrd of West Virginia personally flew to see then 29 year-old Senator-elect Joe Biden, immediately after Biden’s wife was killed in a horrible traffic accident after he was elected Senator but before he turned 30 and was sworn in. Biden was seriously considering resigning his seat before swearing in to take care of his kids.
Byrd did his level best to console Biden and convince him to stay in politics.
The GOP lacks such people.
It showed in the NY-23rd.
You would do well to reflect on this in your attacks on what you consider “the Republican Fringe.”
Another part of any “way forward” is to pay attention to your state legislature in 2010. Many states will be up for redistricting after the census. US House districts for the various states are generally drawn by the legislature. The majority legislature party has the say in how those are drawn in most states.
2010 will be a very important year in state legislature elections. Keep that in mind.
Trent:
More journalistic malpractice. Hoffman did go to see Dede, hat in hand for her endorsement. That is when he got the non-endorsement pledge from her. Then Schumer calls and she stabs Hoffman in the back. Maybe because no Republican leaders called or that the RNC went over to Hoffman so quickly without calling her. Either way Hoffman was talking to her all Saturday. I would blame this again on the local republican leaders, state republican leaders, as well as the NRCC and RNC.
trent:
Byrd did his level best to console Biden
was the compassionate Byrd wearing his white sheet at the time?
A Republican Civil War? Not Likely
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTBhMTc2Y2U4NzU3MjY4ZTEyZmNiMzExMmY0YjMzMWM=
Exactly!!
Stevevvs,
No more spam comments or you are outta here.
What is Spam? FACTS?
Here is a tough one. How would we catagorize these people?
Thomas Jefferson [R]
James Madison [R]
James Monroe [R]
Andrew Jackson [D]
John Tyler [R]
James K. Polk [D]
Franklin Pierce [D]
James Buchanan [D]
What Do They All Have In Common?
They all Vetoed “Interior Improvement” projects passed by Congress. Such as Roads, Canals, etc. WHY?
Well you see, if something isn’t listed in the Constitution under Article 1 Section 8, then Congress has no authority to do it, without ammending the Constitution.
My, how times have changed. Now, we do anything we want without the slightest thought as to the Constitutionality of what is proposed.
So, what are they, Far Right, Far Left, Conservative Moderates, or just people who respect the Constitutional Limits placed upon them? Tough one isn’t it!
I read this today in my newest book.
I’m probubly done here. AJ hat’s FACTS I guess.
Libertarians win 8 victories in Pennsylvania elections
http://libertarianrepublican.blogspot.com/2009/11/libertarian-rino-wins-county-council.html
I said it over a month ago, and I still think it so……it will be the Libertarians and Conservatives who save the GOP. It may a pendulum swing that overcorrects Obamanomics; but, eventually things will swing back and forth until they settle center-right again.
[…] ARE NOT Republicans. They are Third Party Conservative Losers, but they are NOT Republicans. AJ Strata is right. If these people could decently align themselves with the GOP they could help us win. […]