Mark Coffey has a post up on Charlie Cook’s predictions for 2006. Before I read Cooke’s assessment I have to continue to support my prediction that the Reps will pick up 1-3 senate seats this year, further defying historic trends as they did in 2000, 2002, and 2004.

The reasons I am still bullish on the Senate is the Dems have more seats to defend this round (unlike 2002 and 2004 where the Reps had many more seats to defend), plus the liberal dems are over playing the NSA-FISA issue. They are ready to impeach the President for stopping terrorist attacks.

All the Reps can pin down their dem challengers by demanding their answer on whether we should monitor communications between terrorist leaders overseas and their contacts here. Any support of terrorists rights will lose the majority of voters, and any support for stopping them will lose the liberal base, which is up to half the democrat core these days.

The Reps would be smart to follow the lead of Smash and also challenge the dems if they are looking and fighting for success in Iraq or the nearest opportunity to quit and run. These dynamics will do more to shape the races than I think Charlie Cook admits.

There are two major factors in Six-Year Itch, mid-term elections: the popularity of the incumbent president since voters see these elections as a referendum on the performance of a president; and the extent of a “time for a change” dynamic that often occurs after one party has inhabited the White House for six years, particularly when that party has controlled the Congress as well.

The problem with this assessment it assumes it is being made in isolation of the comparative alternative. But when compared to Senate Dems, Bush outshines the calls for surrender in Iraq and the calls for impeachment over monitoring terrorists.

The Democrat’s approach has been politically suicidal. And while not all Dems are for impeachment, many Dems are promising impeachment proceedings if they win the House. This is not going to win votes, and will probably repulse voters who are not in the mood for partisan payback in a time of war. The promise of impeachment as the lead item in the dems version of the Contract with America is poison. And it is now too late to ‘take it back’ – not that the lunatic far left would allow their desires to be muted.

Sorry, but I see another historic election, simply because the left has a schism so deep between the Lieberman’s and the Pelosi’s they cannot find common ground at the state level. The hate of Bush has become so extreme the far left doesn’t even trust the moderate democrats anymore, which they need to win elections.