Jan 11 2010
Who Has The Fire In The 2010 Elections?
The MA special election to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat in the US Senate is going to be a clear indicator of where the fire is for the 2010 elections. Is it with the Democrats and their far left, partisan agenda that has turned off nearly all the seniors and independents? Or is in a rising political tsunami represented by the Tea Party protests that have attracted a broad swath of voters?
Two articles out today basically note the same picture – it all depends on who goes to the polls with the most fervor. First we have an analysis from Pollster.com:
Those differences mean the overall results reported by any poll are going to be very sensitive to the “tightness” of the screen or likely voter model used.
Then there is a very similar analysis by Scott Rasmussen:
First, all three surveys show Coakley right around the 50% mark. The Rasmussen poll has her right at 50%, while the Globe shows her three points higher and PPP three points lower. If Coakley is truly right around the 50% mark, then the race is hers to lose, and Brown’s best possible scenario is a very narrow victory.
Second, all the polls show that a lower turnout is better for Brown. In the Rasmussen poll, Coakley leads by nine overall, but Brown pulls to within two points among those who are certain to vote. In the Globe poll, Coakley leads by 17 overall, but among those who are “extremely interested†in the election, it’s 47% for Brown and 47% for Coakley. PPP shows a toss-up but suggests it’s close because of low turnout among Democrats.
Finally, the Globe poll and the Rasmussen poll show identical vote totals for candidates other than Coakley. The Rasmussen poll finds 41% for Brown and did not mention a third-party candidate by name. The Globe shows 36% for Brown and five percent (5%) for independent candidate Joe Kennedy. It’s interesting that both polls show 41% of the vote going to a candidate other than Coakley.
Sadly for the Democrats, the answer is pretty much already written – it is only a question of how big the exclamation point will be at the end of the message from voters. I suspect we are seeing a continuation of the 2009 Governor races in VA and NJ, primarily because nothing has changed for the positive since then to swing momentum back to the party in power. The unemployment picture continues to degrade and the Health Care bill has turned into a Frankenstein’s Monster of higher taxes, higher premiums, sweet heart deals for a few and delayed fixes (not to come until after 2012).
Nothing indicates the wave that we saw in November 2009 is subsiding. Just the opposite in fact. More and more independents and seniors are fleeing the Democrats. So I would say (barring something totally unexpected) that Scott Brown could easily win next week. But even a close loss means the Democrats in less blue and purple regions of the country are very much in political danger.
All I know is next Tuesday I will be sitting down to watch one incredible political show.
I’ll be watching with you. Before I came to get my daily Strata update I contributed to Scott Brown’s campaign. Today is a money bomb effort to raise $500,000 for his campaign. (My second contribution.)
My hubby and I have decided to contribute directly to the campaigns and not to the the party because we’re tired of having our money misspent.
I am thinking it will not matter if Brown pulls it out. The Dems will tie the results up in court for months. He will not be seated until after the health care debacle is signed.
This is MA and while it is possible for Brown to win, it is unlikely, this is Ted Kennedy’s seat after all.
However, if Brown wins it will really shake up the Democrats. They can try to tie it up in court and all kinds of stuff, just like the Republicans did in MN when Franken and Coleman were running for the Senate, but in the end…Franken took his seat in MN and if Brown wins this, he will take his seat in MA. That will make a difference.
[…] additional reading … lots of chatter about polls and the Massachusetts race at Strata-Sphere, Gateway Pundit, Hot Air, and of course Jim Geraghty’s Campaign […]
AJ,
Brown will have to win by more than 3% to be outside the range of manufactured votes.
I just don’t see it, but I would like to be surprised.
On a somewhat related note, Reid has made this guffaw in order to justify his leaving his position, which I believe the democrats are pressuring him to do. He just needed a reason to make it look like he was drummed out…
Never put anything past the democrats when it comes to their designs toward power.
Grass roots? I’ll say! Scott Brown raised $1,303,302.50, far exceeding $500,000. I don’t know if he can pull it out but this is a great start.
There was a debate last night moderated by David Gergen and he asked Brown a question about “the Kennedy seat” and the answer was, “With all due respect, it’s not the Kennedy’s seat, it’s not the Democrats’ seat, it’s the people’s seat.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJEEQHOnI2Q
I’m impressed so far with him, I hope he can pull out a victory.
[…] They key is turnout – and the Dems have no fire. But that broad coalition of opposition sure does. Brown has the independents on his side – and I would wager the senior citizens as well. All the polls show the more likely someone is to vote the more likely they are voting for Brown. If your fed up and want to send a message, apparently Brown will be your messenger. […]
[…] would indicate, as was noted in this post, that the more energized groups are the R’s and I’s. If we see a combination of higher […]