Jan 17 2010
A new poll from, an outfit I am not familiar with (which means I have no idea of their credibility, Â is out on the MA Special Election. Bottom line: Brown is cleaning Coakley’s clock by 9.6% (50.8%-41.2%). Â 3rd party candidate Kennedy comes in with a realistic 1.8% (in line with what we saw in the 2009 NJ governor’s race) and 6.2% are still undecided (which seems high).
I think this poll is pretty solid because it has a reasonable turnout model (D34-R17-I48) for this election. That is not far off from the normal MA party affiliation (D37-R12-I51) while giving the Brown side a reasonable edge in momentum and energy. If we assume Coakley and Brown split the undecideds (reasonable for now) we end up with Brown winning by a stunning 10%.
Turnout is the key, and with bad weather coming in tomorrow all bets are off. It will come down to who wants to get out and vote the most. Bad weather is not a good thing for Coakley’s demoralized supporters.
The 2nd key to this poll is how the independents are breaking. It seems more and more are heading to Brown since this poll has them running from Coakley 64%-26%. If that holds it means there are vanishingly few realistic turnout models which lead to a Coakley win. It also means the family of turnout models leading to a Brown blow out are also increasing in number and probability.
Looking forward to PPP’s final poll results later tonight.
Update: Earlier today Mark Halperin said on Meet The Press that the White House admitting privately that Coakley would lose. Now CNN is reporting the same conclusion – which means now it is all damage control. The President looked and sounded lost, dazed and defensive today at his MLK speech in DC. Now we know why – he knows this is a crippling blow to his administration’s political capitol and clout.
Update: The big take away from Rasmussen’s latest (last?) poll in MA is the clobbering Brown is giving Coakley with independents:
Coakley is supported by 77% of Democrats while Brown picks up the vote from 88% of Republicans. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Brown leads 71% to 23%.
Rasmussen has to be seriously dialing up Dem turnout to make Brown’s lead with 88% GOP and 73% Indie voters come out as a tie – all the while Coakley is losing Â 23% of her Dems. Looks like statistical magic to me.
Update: Ed Morrissey weighs in on this poll with some well grounded caveats.