Jan 17 2010
Brown Pulls Out To 10% Lead – Updated
Updates Below!
A new poll from, an outfit I am not familiar with (which means I have no idea of their credibility, Â is out on the MA Special Election. Bottom line: Brown is cleaning Coakley’s clock by 9.6% (50.8%-41.2%). Â 3rd party candidate Kennedy comes in with a realistic 1.8% (in line with what we saw in the 2009 NJ governor’s race) and 6.2% are still undecided (which seems high).
I think this poll is pretty solid because it has a reasonable turnout model (D34-R17-I48) for this election. That is not far off from the normal MA party affiliation (D37-R12-I51) while giving the Brown side a reasonable edge in momentum and energy. If we assume Coakley and Brown split the undecideds (reasonable for now) we end up with Brown winning by a stunning 10%.
Turnout is the key, and with bad weather coming in tomorrow all bets are off. It will come down to who wants to get out and vote the most. Bad weather is not a good thing for Coakley’s demoralized supporters.
The 2nd key to this poll is how the independents are breaking. It seems more and more are heading to Brown since this poll has them running from Coakley 64%-26%. If that holds it means there are vanishingly few realistic turnout models which lead to a Coakley win. It also means the family of turnout models leading to a Brown blow out are also increasing in number and probability.
Looking forward to PPP’s final poll results later tonight.
Update: Earlier today Mark Halperin said on Meet The Press that the White House admitting privately that Coakley would lose. Now CNN is reporting the same conclusion – which means now it is all damage control. The President looked and sounded lost, dazed and defensive today at his MLK speech in DC. Now we know why – he knows this is a crippling blow to his administration’s political capitol and clout.
Update: The big take away from Rasmussen’s latest (last?) poll in MA is the clobbering Brown is giving Coakley with independents:
Coakley is supported by 77% of Democrats while Brown picks up the vote from 88% of Republicans. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Brown leads 71% to 23%.
Rasmussen has to be seriously dialing up Dem turnout to make Brown’s lead with 88% GOP and 73% Indie voters come out as a tie – all the while Coakley is losing  23% of her Dems. Looks like statistical magic to me.
Update: Ed Morrissey weighs in on this poll with some well grounded caveats.
Carl Cameron, FOX, reports that this is what the President of the United States will face as he speaks for Scott Brown’s opponent.
“It holds 3,000 and frankly only 2,000 to 2,500 showed up.â€
He says that people are lining the streets, many with home made signs, as the campaign has run out of printed signs, Scott Brown has the momentum at his back, no matter what Obama says, few are listening apparently.
FWIW – InTrade (at this time) shows Brown ahead by nearly 5 – no bump from the visit by Obama, apparently. With bad weather moving in, and fired-up supporters, I think everything points to Brown coming out on top. But it will be close – perhaps a 4 point spread. I just hope it is decisive enough so that we don’t get the Minnesota recount redux…
[…] lifted the humble sounding name of Massachusetts’ “Scott Brown” as Obama’s ostensible political executioner. Today Scott Brown attended “The People’s Rally” packed […]
it will be close – perhaps a 4 point spread. I just hope it is decisive enough so that we don’t get the Minnesota recount redux…
Yes, it’ll need to be clear on election day that it is beyond the absentee ballots. SEIU/ACORN/Dims know how to make those votes come out.
If it’s up in the air at 8PM Tues, no question of how it ends.
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but, let’s all hope the democratic republic prevails.
If it is “close” look for the Democrats to “discover” “missing” ballots after the polls close. I suppose the dead sometimes get to the polls late.
I am just not trusting the Democrats not to pull every dirty trick in the book to keep from losing this election even if it comes to stuffing ballot boxes by the people at the polling places.
Republicans would do well to serve as polling place monitors.
I think this election caught he democrats flat-footed. They didn’t get the slime machines going until it was too late.
If the democrats in congress really do pass the Senate version of the health reform bill without revision as Obama has suggested they will slit their political throats.
Rasmussen has to be seriously dialing up Dem turnout
LOL, nah, he’s just throwing in the Dead/missing ballots/’newly discovered’ballots/Ed Shultz (I’d vote 10 times if I could) votes.
Ed Shultz said he’d vote 10 times if he could to keep those ‘bastards’ out. He didn’t say who he would vote for or who those ‘bastards’ are.
Independent turnout projections are a crystal ball thing. Independents are fickle. They might not be motivated to show up in one election yet show up in droves for the next.
I have a feeling this election will see a higher than average independent turnout. There is almost a “blood in the water” sense that the people can actually make a difference this time and turn “business as usual” on its ear.
CP, Agree. Motivation is knowing you can (1) make a difference and (2) say you were part of history!
also, everybody stop with the intrade stuff – intrade doesn’t “know” anything, it’s just a handy way to put a numeric handle on the “buzz” that’s out there. That may or may not reflect what will happen on election day.
Yes, Brown looks to be ahead. That’s all anyone knows, and Intrade boards don’t “know” anything more than you or I do.
WWS
“also, everybody stop with the intrade stuff – intrade doesn’t “know†anything…”
I agree – it’s just one of many metrics (like the polls themselves). The only “poll” that matters is the one on election day…
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