Jan 18 2010

Latest ARG Poll No Surprise – Brown Win

Published by at 2:37 pm under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

ARG is out with their final poll in MA:

Massachusetts US Senate
1/17/2010 Brown Coakley Kennedy Undecided
Likely voters 52% 45% 2% 2%
Registration:
Democrats (42%) 23% 73% 2% 2%
Republicans (15%) 97% 1% - 2%
Unenrolled/
Other (43%)
64% 32% 2% 2%
Sex:
Men (48%) 58% 39% 1% 2%
Women (52%) 46% 50% 2% 2%
Age:
18-49 (43%) 53% 43% 2% 2%
50 plus (57%) 51% 46% 1% 2%
1/12-14/2010 48% 45% 2% 5%

Important details: Coakley losing over 20% of Dems, being crushed by Indies 64-32%. Even worse for Cloakely, for those who voted already absentee Brown has large edge:

A total of 8% of likely voters say they have already voted by absentee ballot, with Brown leading Coakley 54% to 44%, with 2% for Kennedy.

The turnout model for this poll is surprising optimistic for Coakley: 42D-15R-43I. The nominal model is 37D-12R-51I. ARG is assuming indies are not very fired up but Dems are.

It only remains to be seen how badly Coakley loses, but she will lose. Just check out the aggregate of all the polls and only someone in deep denial (hint, hint Nate 358) would be still listing this as a toss up.

11 responses so far

11 Responses to “Latest ARG Poll No Surprise – Brown Win”

  1. AJ,

    Bets on whether the Democrats slow roll Scott Brown’s election certification?

    I am betting they will.

    Just enough to overwhelmingly tic off Americans and still not get Democratic Halth Care Reform.

  2. AJ,

    Bets on whether the Democrats slow roll Scott Brown’s election certification?

    I am betting they will.

    Just enough to overwhelmingly tic off Americans and still not get Democratic Health Care Reform.

  3. AJStrata says:

    Trent,

    I don’t think they can slow roll is certification. Kirk is legally fired tomorrow night and can’t vote. Why pay the political price across the country in other races when it does no good?

  4. MerlinOS2 says:

    With the latest sets of polls and pretty much all showing a continuing trend it can become almost self fulfilling.

    When an election looks to be a blowout and momentum is solid it can make those on the loosing side not waste their time to vote especially with the less than optimal weather forecast.

  5. Cassiep says:

    Now that’s a “hockey stick” trend I can believe in!

  6. Frogg1 says:

    As far as this election is concerned, I started out by asking, “do I dare hope?”. A few weeks ago I said that if the consensus of polls showed Brown 5 points ahead I would believe he had a chance. He is there!!!! I do think he will win. I do worry about the dead voter registration rolls in MA that can cause massive vote counting problems. However, I also think that if Brown wins, and there are vote shenanigans it will only rally the people even more toward Brown and the other issues at stake in this election. Vote counting shenanigans, fraud, and corruption is also on the list of things that “we the people” are tired of.

  7. AJ,

    Massachusetts law is a thin reed in the face of Democratic grabs for power.

  8. AJ,

    I’m laying a marker here that I’m right on the Democratic Lefties going all the way for the power that socialized medicine represents.

    They are going to blame Coakley for being a bad candidate, ignore Virginia, NJ and Massachusetts voters and cram/ram/inject/apply a Health care Reform scheme that crashes the current system such that the only option left is single payer.

    See:

    http://hotair.com/archives/2010/01/18/good-news-obama-to-take-combative-approach-to-brown-victory/

    http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=43D62D3D-18FE-70B2-A8A2DB2551E7FCD1

  9. AJStrata says:

    Trent,

    Agree – the dems could stop the madness. They won’t.

  10. edray1 says:

    Why is INTRADE showing +10 for Coakey and -8.5 for Scott??

  11. AJStrata says:

    esdray,

    comments on twitter say this is just the Brown folks taking their profits.