Jan 21 2010

NASA GISS Admits Current Temps Not Historically Warmer

Major Update: This is a quote from Reto Ruedy Jim Hansen on August 10, 2007 regarding the US GISS temp data:

He [McCyntire] concentrates on the US time series which (US covering less than 2% of the world) is so noisy and has such a large margin of error that no conclusions can be drawn from it at this point.

Excuse me? The US has the most complete coverage and the most accurate sensors out there, and it is too noisy to make any historic conclusions from? This is headline news! Go to page 36 in the pdf linked below to find this little confession.

Clarification: the admission that the US data is ‘noisy’ does come originally from Hansen, and is expanded by Reto. So it is a Hansen confession. - end update

Steve McCyntire noted that Judicial Watch had acquired and released a series of emails regarding the adjustments NASA GISS made to the US temp record due to some missed corrections. In their snobbish and arrogant effort to belittle those asking questions about what was the warmest year on record, they inadvertently admitted that the current warm period is not significantly greater than the warm spots seen in the US in the 1930’s and 1950’s.

The admission is found in a tidbit in one email, where GISS admits their standard deviation is 0.47°C (which begs the question about any warming trend measured at 0.8°C).  What this means is the years, 1934, 1998, 1921, 2006, 1931, 1999, 1953, 1990, 1938 and 1939 (the top 10 ‘warmest’ years in America) are all statistically the same ‘warmth’. They all fall within the GISSN claimed standard deviation.

Which begs the question about this chart:

It would seem to me that if these years are all statistically equivalent, then today’s temps are no different than those seen in the 1930’s.  More fun with numbers.

10 responses so far

10 Responses to “NASA GISS Admits Current Temps Not Historically Warmer”

  1. [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by AJ Strata and Fred, Rush Runs America. Rush Runs America said: NASA GISS Admits Current Temps Not Historically Warmer http://bit.ly/4SoiZZ :: Strata-sphere [...]

  2. WWS says:

    good catch – I don’t think any of these people have any concept of what the terms statistically equivalent or significant actually means, that would require thought, not ideology.

    and in other news, Air America finally died this afternoon.

    obituary here: http://airamerica.com/

    that deserves a nelson laugh – HA ha!

    http://www.angelfire.com/film/tsss/ss/haha.wav

  3. [...] PR spin from public facade of the AGW crowd and they become honest about the global warming canard. In my previous post I discovered Jim Hansen noting the US temperature data is so noisy (yet it is the most accurate, [...]

  4. [...] NASA GISS Admits Current Temps Not Historically Warmer [...]

  5. [...] peculiar statements (click here to read a funny episode almost straight out of The Office). And so AJ Strata of the Strata-sphere reported on Jan 21: In their snobbish and arrogant effort to belittle those asking questions about what was the [...]

  6. zuch says:

    Pardon me, but it looks like the error bars for individual years for that graph are in the 0.1 to 0.2 range. But the combined error bars for a series of years would be smaller (larger sample size, law of large numbers, that kind of stuff). So I’m not sure how you get that 0.47 number or apply that number to that graph.

    Cheers,

  7. [...] Jim Hansen, Chief Alarmist of GISS, says, “…the US time series which (US covering less than 2% of the world) is so noisy and has such a large margin of error that no conclusions can be drawn from it at this point.” Keep in mind that the US series is the gold standard, which means the rest of the world’s measurements are is worse shape.The same article points out that current temps as measured by the surface record are not significantly warmer than the 30s & 40s. [...]

  8. [...] fact, NASA GISS is on record noting that the ten warmest years are spread throughout the last century and are all statistically tied [...]

  9. [...] a series of emails, which in turn revealed that (a) NASA admits the current warm period is not historically different from the period around 1921-1950, and (b) that there has been no sign of global warming in North America or the US. How is global [...]

  10. [...] NASA GISS also noted that this current decade is not statistically warmer than any other decade. The Dems are now trapped by their own [...]