Mar 16 2010
Decimating Democrats This November
I have long held the view the Democrats were heading for a crushing defeat this fall. The country is turning red with anger over the liberal putsch in DC to remake America. It is no big leap of faith to see the Dems lose the house in the off year election.
But the senate looked like a hill too high – until today. If you look at the RCP 2010 election map for the Senate you find DE is now a lost Democrat seat, with AR, IN and NV highly likely lost seats. That brings us to 4 out of the 9 needed to tip the Senate into GOP hands. If we look at tossups it is easy to assume the following would tip GOP in wave election against the Dems: PA & CO. Â I would add IL into that pile.
And soon we will be adding CA into that pile as well because Boxer is now polling between 43-46% in CA, which means she is very likely to lose to any of the GOP candidates which only trail her by 3-6% (close to the MoE). If Rossi in WA challenges Dem incumbent Murray we have the makings for an extraordinary election year where the Dems went from a filibuster proof majority to losing control of the Senate in 2 short, painful years.
We might be closer to adding CA to the list than we think:
CA: Campbell Within 2% Of Boxer
The big poll news today is the latest poll for the California US Senate race from Scott Rasmussen that shows Republican Tom Campbell within 2% of Senator Barbara Boxer.
US SENATE – CALIFORNIA (Rasmussen)
Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 43%
Tom Campbell (R) 41%
http://davidwissing.com/?p=11478
That’s a bit unfair, Christoph – 2006 and 2008 were wave elections that swamped a whole lot of predictions. One of the hardest parts was to figure out which pollsters to believe and which to pass off, but I think Rasmussen has a good track record of reliability by now.
One big takeaway from the 2006 and 2008 elections is that the American electorate is now prone to wave elections, which is a big shift from most of our poltical history. I don’t think it’s a stretch to predict another wave counter to the last two – in fact, in that, we may be getting more close to the European political style, which is to lurch from one extreme to the other under pressure.
2006 and 2008 saw Democrats taking a lot of districts by less than 5-point margins. Those Democrats are going to be out on their ears this next election. Go through the election results of 2008. Find every Democrat elected by less than 5 points. Consider those automatically gone.
Then re-look at the House elections. Go back through and look at current polling. Any incumbent down by more than 5 points in current polling can be considered gone as well.
I have always had strong political opinions but I have never been politically active in my community. If my Congressman (Mike Honda) votes for this bill, I will actively work against him in my community this election cycle. I will go door to door. I will put up “Anyone but Honda” lawn signs and give out bumper stickers. I will give money to his opponents at both primary and general levels.
This bill has me fired up like I haven’t been since Reagan ran against Carter.
Their desire to punish people like McCain and Graham helped Obama win.
I lived in SC back when Graham was first elected to Congress. He sure had me fooled. I actually thought he was a Republican. I now have no clue what his party is. I definitely know what it’s not.
Every time he opens his mouth, he’s promoting Obama’s politics.
Graham has totally disgusted me with his continued attempts to push a cap and trade bill. I think he’s in office until 2012, but he should be primaried if he can’t be convinced to retire.
“Moderate” does not mean kind of being conservative when it doesn’t count and then pushing far left government takeovers when it does.
OK, buckle up. Here is what to do if you are fired up:
http://www.OpenSecrets.org has the campaign donors for the following undecideds. It might be a good idea to call the donors…and politely speak you mind about their contributions.
Google each rep’s name with donor typed after their name. You will find Open Secrets site listed. Click on it and it will take you directly to their page. Then google the top donors to get their phone numbers and call them to let them know what you think about them supporting those who support the healthcare legislation or politely ask them to contact the congressional representative.(idea from http://www.hillbuzz.org) Always be polite and well spoken.
Jason Altmire (PA-4)
332 Cannon House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
202-225-2565
202-226-2274(fax)
John Boccieri (OH-16)
1516 Longworth HOB
Washington, DC 20515
(202) 225-3876
Allen Boyd (FL-2)
1227 Longworth HOB
Washington, DC 20515
(202) 225-5235
(202) 225-5615 Fax
Travis Childers (MS-1)
1708 Longworth HOB
Washington, DC 20515
(202) 225-4306
(202) 225-3549 (fax)
Lincoln Davis (TN-4)
410 Cannon House Office Building
Washington, D.C. 20515
Phone: 202.225.6831
Fax: 202.226.5172
Bart Gordon (TN-6)
2306 Rayburn HOB
Washington, D.C. 20515
Phone: (202) 225-4231
Fax: (202) 225-6887
Scott Murphy (NY-20)
120 Cannon HOB
Washington, DC 20515
(202) 225-5614
(202) 225-1168 (fax)
Glenn Nye (VA-2)
116 Cannon HOB
Washington, D.C. 20515
Phone: (202) 225-4215
Fax: (202) 225-4218
cross,
I think your expressing the feelings of a lot of people. My wife and father-in-law were very politically active in the mid-late 80s but they got disgusted with it so they quit. However, they are riled up now and starting to get back in to it. My father-in-law is even getting into local city politics. This is one thing that stands out about the Tea Party movement – most of them have never been politically active until now.
Redteam:
No, Graham is not promoting Obama’s policies every time he opens his mouth. I don’t always agree with the man, but he never supported anything like Obamacare.
And a lot of conservatives who were not willing to go along with the Reagan rule of half a loaf decided to sit home and send a message in 2006 and 2008…and that message was Pelosi and Reid and Obama…time and again I heard those people say there was no difference. Well yes, there is, on health care and even on issues like cap and trade. So yeah, those folks who were more interested in punishing and complaining about McCain and Graham than they were in stopping a Democratic take over of our government can just take a bow, because they helped get us where we are.
No, McCain and Graham are not like O. I can’t stand either of them but I would have walked through fire to cast my vote….against……Obama. Those two simply make me furious, Obama is a horrible thug that will lie, cheat or steal it while you watch him do it broad daylight.
Those Repubs are late. They brought the knife while the other side has the guns. They will never have a better opportunity to call the MSM (by name brand) out for not broadcasting the corruption. Yes, I think they should be all over calling it pure corruption. Call it what it is. Ask the President how much he paid on that plane ride. Call them a bunch of crooks. Shout it, damn it. You can go back to being nice and dignified later. Right now this bunch of Chicago Crooks are stealing in your face. Stand up and tell them they should all be under ARREST.
This is too important to sit back and score political points. I admit the Pugs have done more than I have seen them do in the last 9 years. It ……….is…………not………..enough. They sat there and watched their fellow crooks call Bush a liar and shout it from the rooftop but they can’t return the favor while Obama is stealing our very system of government?
Terrye and owl, I don’t agree. According to the host, the centrists decided the election. The pugs voted pug, the marxists voted Marxist and the centrists supported the marxists.
If you don’t think Graham supports Obama, maybe you should refresh me on what Obama’s position is on Gitmo, then tell me what Graham’s is. Then run down the cap and trade stands of the two. Then run down their goals on Shamnesty, tell me again… how are they different?
maybe it would just be easier if you would name one of Obama’s goals that Graham doesn’t support…. just wondering…..
There may be actual differences, but in the grand scheme of the US Constitution, they’re rather insignificant….
Rep. Gordon has apparently just switched his vote on health care to “yes” in exchange for being named the new head of NASA when he retires this fall.
COMMITTEE ON WAYS AND MEANS
The Wrong Prescription: Democrats’ Health Overhaul Dangerously Expands IRS Authority
Link to Report
***Highlights of New IRS Authority***
* IRS agents verify if you have “acceptable†health care coverage
* IRS has the authority to fine you up to $2,250 or 2 percent of your income (whichever is greater) for failure to prove that you have purchased “minimum essential coverageâ€
* IRS can confiscate your tax refund
* IRS audits are likely to increase
* IRS will need up to $10 billion to administer the new healthcare program this decade
* IRS may need to hire as many as 16,500 additional auditors, agents and other employees to investigate and collect billions in new taxes from Americans.
* Nearly half of all these new individual mandate taxes will be paid by Americans earning less than 300 percent of poverty ($66,150 for a family of four)
***SPECIAL EXEMPTION***
Democrats prohibit the IRS from imposing these taxes and penalties on illegal immigrants
SBD
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