Apr 14 2010

Democrats Could Face Historic Wipeout This Year

Democrats have a lot of reasons to be concerned about this fall’s elections. Mostly, the economy sucks and will continue to suck for the every day citizen for months (if not years) to come.  Unemployment is stubbornly stuck near 10%, and the weekly job reports have been running in the same narrow band of 400,000+ NEW submittals for months now.  The number of people on Emergency Unemployment Compensation still runs around 5.5 million, and the under employed (U6) is edging back towards 17% (see charts below, click to enlarge).

Add to this the recent drop in support for Dems on the Congressional ballot and the easy target of them losing 8 Senate seats this fall and the perfect nightmare political storm has arrived. This post by Sean Trende at RCP provides an excellent overview of the possible options as we head towards tax day:

A 1994-style scenario is probably the most likely outcome at this point. Moreover, it is well within the realm of possibility – not merely a far-fetched scenario – that Democratic losses could climb into the 80 or 90-seat range. The Democrats are sailing into a perfect storm of factors influencing a midterm election, and if the situation declines for them in the ensuing months, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Democratic losses eclipse 100 seats.

This year, five different polling companies have put Republicans in the lead for the generic ballot in the last two weeks alone – one reason why Michael Barone calls this the worst polling environment for Democrats “during my 50 years of following politics closely.” The RCP Average has Republicans leading Democrats by 2.8 points on the generic ballot test. That should equate roughly to a 225-seat Republican majority (Republicans won the national vote by 5 points in 1994), which would almost represent a 50-seat pickup.

But many of these polls survey registered voters. Polling among likely voters, such as Rasmussen Reports, shows Republicans up by about 8-10 points, which would probably represent a seventy-seat pickup.

And the polls of the most highly energized voters are even worse for Democrats. RecentNBC/WSJ polling found that Democrats led by three points among registered voters. But among those most interested in the November elections, Republicans led by 13 points.

I tend to think the Dems are in much bigger trouble than most people are willing to admit because they off year elections are historically bad for the President’s party, the likely voters tend to be the most energized and the most energized voters are those out for some Congressional scalp.

There is no game changer out there for Obama or his liberal congress. There is no health care fix coming, there will be no massive creation of new jobs. More and more people are going to go underwater financially, deficits are continuing to soar and Obama seems lost and wandering around making waves but no real progress.

The Dems over promised and failed to deliver on many fronts. And people are now realizing Washington  DC is the cancer, not the cure, and needs to excised. We shall see if this anger simmers down or boils over, but I see no reason for people to forgive the Democrats for their failures.

16 responses so far

16 Responses to “Democrats Could Face Historic Wipeout This Year”

  1. smill1953 says:

    I pray you’re right. I’m just surprised at Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll today of likely voters– +1 approve of Obama’s job. I can’t believe it.

  2. AJStrata says:

    smill,

    I am beginning to think the voters are so angry they are disengaging and waiting for November. Or they are just enjoying spring. If you look at our blog traffic it has dropped off quite a bit since Obamacare passed. Seems people are tuning out, which means pollsters are not getting access to a fully representative sample.

    We shall see what happens after 4/15

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  4. WWS says:

    Looks like the stories about Democrats planning on crashing the Tea Parties with racist signs and slogans really are true, and are being planned by people with strong connections to the Democrat Party itself.

    check out this story, which is completely independant of the other stories on the net about this kind of thing:

    http://www.nowhampshire.com/2010/04/14/source-state-dems-scrambling-to-deploy-tea-party-%E2%80%98crashers%E2%80%99/

    This truly is all they have left? Never in my life have I seen any political party stoop so low. But it’s part and parcel of the same kind of lies that Cleaver and the other congressmen have been pushing.

    With this widespread a push, I think this directive is coming from Axelrod himself.

  5. Alert1201 says:

    WWS
    The sad thing is these stunts would get now where without a fawning press ready to stoop just as low to publish the lies. There will be no critical examination of the dems claims. It will be reported as reality.

  6. kathie says:

    New poll, 48% like Obama, 46% would rather have George W. back. So how are the Dems going to run against Bush again?

  7. oneal lane says:

    November is s long way off. I am somewhat less sanguine about the prospect for huge democrat losses. The mod/cen voters cannot be counted on. They are like a flag in the wind. Between now and November the passion against Obamacare will remain only in the conservative right, and if the economy shows some signs of success, huge mod/cen turnout against Obama is doubtful.

    Obama is still quite popular. Most of the electorate wants the president to succeed. Those who have no real firm idealogical passion for smaller government , again the mod/cen and the left, might be quite willing to forgive and forget.

    In any case Obamacare is here to stay, it will never go away. Yes, the new congress will modify it some but in 10 years we will be watching the republicans debate the democrats on who best can run the national health service. the political will does not exist in the Republican party to kill this demon. Yes, the conservate Republicans will work at it but the Party is run by big government mod/cen rinos who will not want to appear confrontational or racist etc. and will back down.

    A.J. is correct about the center in this respect, they do tend to determine the election and the path of government. remember, the center gave us Obama, a Democrat congress. Centrist Dems just gave us Obamacare.

    Trusting a Moderate is like trusting an unfaithful wife. You will be dissapointed.

  8. kathie says:

    If you don’t support the Obama Health Care bill you are a racist. Now I know why!

    Found at FREEREPUBLIC

    Sebelius to focus on health of minorities
    04/14/2010 12:00:08 PM PDT · by Free ThinkerNY · 30 replies · 472+ views
    Associated Press ^ | April 14, 2010
    NEW YORK (AP) — Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius is developing an action plan that will focus on reducing health disparities between minority and white populations. Sebelius made her remarks Wednesday at a convention of the National Action Network.

  9. Woofguy says:

    Ah, but look at Yahoo Splash page.

    Economy is roaring back! Everyone is happy.

    “Many people feel recovery.”

    Obama has his clueless followers in the right places. Even the Yahoo dopes, many of them are laid off, put forth the party message.

    Tom in CA

  10. AJ,

    There are several game changers that might show up for Obama and the Democrats between now and November 20120.

    Unfortunately, they all make things worse.

    A list off the top of my head:

    1) Commercial real estate collapse
    2) Another financial crisis
    3) Energy price spike from political events (See Iran & Israel)
    4) State and local government lay offs as tax receipts continue to tube
    5) A successful foreign terrorist attack with a three to four figure death count.

  11. WWS says:

    “Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius is developing an action plan that will focus on reducing health disparities between minority and white populations.”

    You realize, of course, that the easiest way to do this is to radically cut back on the amount of access the white population has to health care.

    Voila! Parity!

    And I’m not being facetious – when the goal of any policy is “Equality” instead of “Quality” then we are being set up for the destruction of the second in order to bring about the first. That’s the entire reason the goals are worded in this peculiar way – creating quality is very hard, but creating Equality is very easy if that is the only goal.

    Remember that there is perfect Equality in the grave.

  12. dbostan says:

    I think the last shoe to drop (on top of those already on the ground) will be major international turmoil.
    Iran or Hezbollah, or Poland..
    Yes, Poland, since the plane accident may have been added by the Russians.
    If you add the possibility of terrorism on Americans, I think Obama is toast.
    But that makes him very dangerous (as he is schooled in communist tactics), so we must keep our eyes on the ball.

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  14. AJ,

    Senate Majority Leader Reid is bringing up amnesty this year in a bid to save his Nevada Senate seat.

    Never mind the jobs implications for the working class.

    This means tens of thousands of new medicare patients while there are huge cuts impacting due to Obamacare.

    Older white voters will react to this very badly — unless they are Jewish.

    Consider that in your 2010 electoral calculations.

  15. lurker9876 says:

    So I get a tax refund for last year. That is what Obama was talking about…that tax cut.

    No thanks. This isn’t going to change my mind about you.

    I’d rather keep my money so that I can invest my way. I don’t want YOU to get my interests and dividents and I don’t want you to manage my money.

    I hope that this won’t change others’ minds.

    Trent, what’s worse is that Lindsay is now pushing for a fifteen cent gas tax. The oil companies prefer this over the other cap and trade alternatives.

    Michelle Malkin reports that the medical deduction has been eliminated by ObamaCare.

  16. [...] have said for months that there would be a historic wipe out of Democrats in the midterms the likes of Biblical proportions. All one had to do is be among the people, hear [...]