Aug 04 2010
Obamacare Rejected
The state of Missouri is one of those excellent bell-weather purplish states. It rejects far left and far right politicians and has sent members of both parties to DC. Therefore the state is an excellent barometer for middle America and the average voter. If this latest vote on Obamacare in Missouri is not a solid measure of a pending political tsunami in November, I don’t know what is:
Voters in Missouri overwhelmingly opposed requiring people to buy health insurance, in a largely symbolic slap at the Obama administration’s health overhaul.
The referendum was the first chance for voters to express a view on the overhaul, although turnout in the state was low and Republican voters significantly outnumbered Democrats.
With all precincts reporting, 71% of voters supported Proposition C, establishing a state law that says Missouri cannot compel people to pay a penalty or fine if they fail to carry health coverage. Twenty-nine percent voted against the proposition.
70%! The die hard liberals in DC have succeeded in rallying the nation – against them and their foolish policies. Liberals only make up 20% of the general population (and that is being generous in my humble opinion). Which means everyone not liberal must have pretty much voted down Obamacare in Missouri yesterday.
As they will vote out Democrats this fall.
YES FOR MISSOURI!
It’s almost amusing how the LA Times tried to whistle past the graveyard by saying “well, it’s only one small part of the bill.†Kind of like the Heart is only one small part of the body. Even the most ardent backers knew that the insurance mandate would be trouble; the ONLY reason it’s in there is because the entire scheme collapses without it! If you don’t have a mandate, and yet you don’t restrict people with pre-existing conditions from joining, then *no* *one* will buy insurance until after they get sick. And if only sick people get insurance while the healthy people don’t, the entire risk-sharing basis underlying the entire idea of insurance collapses.
So, the voters only want to get rid of one small part of the bill – the one small part that destroys the entire scheme if it’s removed.
Btw, that’s also why we can’t just repeal one small part of it – the scheme stands and falls as a whole.
I’ve recently learned of a fascinating legal aspect of this issue – almost all bills passed by Congress contain some boilerplate language which states that if part of the bill is found unconstitutional by the courts, only that part of the bill will be removed and the rest will continue to have the force of law.
This clause got left out of Obamacare – in all 1900+ pages, no one remembered to put this in. Intentional ommission or simple blunder? No way to know, but it doesn’t matter. What that means is that if a Court throws out even part of Obamacare (such as the clearly unconsitutinional mandate) then the ENTIRE bill is going to collapse legally, financially, and politically!
Many have said that it’s going to be hard to repeal Obamacare, but the path to that is easier than you think – all we need if for a court to throw out part of it and then the new Congress simply has to refuse to renew it with corrections.
It will take a while, well into next year – but that could very well be the best path we have to getting rid of this monstrosity!
And now, for the icing on the cake, all that is needed is for the federal government to step in, with injunctions or whatever, saying to Missouri, “Hell No!!! You cannot do that!”
(Maybe Pete Stark can lead the charge.)
Bet that would go over well in November. 🙂
That would be stupidity they are entirely capable of.
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AJ, WWS,
I think we can say, at a minimally, the “enthusiasm gap” between Republican and Democratic voters is larger in 2010 than it was in 1994.
I would also say, based on the Missouri voting results that the “enthusiasm gap” between Republican leaning and Democratic leaning independents is even larger. And the former are larger than the latter demographic by a factor of at least 3 to 2 nationally.
Note that 3 to 2 ratio is even more lopsided in Red or Purple states than blue ones like Michigan to average out that way nationally.
And it looks like Michigan means that the higher the unemployment rate, the lower the Democratic base and Democratic independent leaning voters than similar Republican catagories. (NRO CS blog — More than 1 million voted in the Republican gubernatorial primary in Michigan, while only 525,000 voted in the Democratic one!!!!),
I think we can also safely say that any news on the economy or politics between now and the election will be bad for Democrats.
Exhibits 1 through many:
1) The Cordoba Mosque at the 9/11 site in NY City,
2) Iranian nuclear proliferation/bombing of same,
3) The July, August, September and October goverment Unemployment/Economic Reports.
4) Illegal Immigration.
Oh wait!
There is also the virtually certain ruling by a Activist Federal trial judge to over turn California’s Gay Marriage Repeal referrendum, Proposition Eight.
Actually, Paul, it’s already well known that they will do exactly that. It’s the same Supremacy argument that was used against the Arizona law: ie, Federal Law will always have supremacy over state law, and whenever they conflict State Law automatically becomes null and void and Federal Law applies. The modern version, as elucidated by Pete Stark, is that the old constitutional limits on Federal action no longer apply and thus the Feds *always* have supremacy no matter what the issue, no matter what you think the constitution says.
I’m not kidding – that’s what left-leaning law professors like Lawrence Tribe teach their students today, and this is Unchallengable Dogma for today’s Democrat Party.
And that’s exactly the ruling made by the Federal Judge in the Arizona case.
Just the thought that 5 members of the Supreme Court may not be on board with them is enough to give them the D.T.’s. But this doesn’t really matter; everyone seems to be missing the most significant part of this story.
What was the last poll on this issue? 58% against, 38% for.
What were the results? 71% against, 29% for.
This was a real world test; and the polls that already look bad for the Dems appear to be understating the actual results by 10% in each direction.
Here comes the Tsunami.
…With all of the above, the Democrats are looking at a “perfect storm.”
Charles Cook said before yesterday’s primary votes that the House Democratic losses in 2010 are going to be in the 37 (+/-) 5 range.
I wonder what he will say next week?
WWS:
I agree entirely.
What’s coming next has the inevitability and result of driving full-bore towards the edge of a chasm.
AJ can haul out his Thelma and Louise photo.
🙂
WWS,
this was from over on the NRO site:
http://www.nationalreview.com/critical-condition/242467/missouri-vote-even-worse-dems-it-looks-michael-tanner
According to preliminary results, just under 668,000 Missourians voted in favor of Proposition C. Only 578,000 Republicans voted in their party’s primaries. Another 40,000 voters appear to have cast votes on Proposition C without voting in either the Republican or Democratic primaries. So, even if you assume that every single Republican voted for the initiative and every person who didn’t vote in a primary voted for it, at least 40,000 Democrats — more than one in every eight Democratic primary voters — voted against the centerpiece of President Obama’s health-care plan. And these aren’t just any registered
Democrats; these are the party activists, the Democratic base.
Do we need any more evidence of how unpopular this bill is?
Ouch!
WWS, you hit the nail on the head with the results vs the polls. I have been feeling all along that the polls were not telling the whole story. But that’s OK with me because the slamdown will be even greater than expected…and “stealthier!
ROLL TIDE ROLL! [you all can use that from now until Nov. 2, if you want 🙂 ]
WWS,
This is from Jim Geraghty:
One of my guys looks at this chart and a few other DCCC buys, along with a rumor that the committee is reserving $2 million in advertising space in the Boston market for either New Hampshire seat or the open-seat race in Massachusetts’s 10th district, and concludes, “By my count, $12 million of the $48 million the Democrats have indicated they’re using to reserve ad space is in the media markets of Philadephia, New York state, California, Boston, and Chicago . . . This buy is recognition that they are in full retreat.â€
.
As a head fake, it wouldn’t even make sense.
WWS,
These numbers are the ones Democrats are going to watch like hawks.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2010/08/04/Poll-Obamas-approval-among-blacks-dips/UPI-39651280933895/
Obama’s overall job approval rating in July is 46 percent, unchanged from June, and down 4 percentage points from February of this year, Gallup reported Tuesday.
.
Obama’s job approval rating averaged 88 percent among blacks and 38 percent among whites in July, a 50-percentage-point gap that has been consistent in recent months but larger than the first months following his inauguration, Gallup reported Tuesday.
.
While an overwhelming majority of blacks approve of Obama’s job in office, approval ratings among blacks, whites and Hispanics in July were all at their lowest levels to date, the Princeton, N.J., polling agency said.
.
Blacks’ approval of the job Obama is doing fell below the 90 percent threshold for the second straight month in July, although not significantly lower than the 89 percent recorded in June, Gallup said.
.
Among Hispanics, Obama earned an approval rating of 54 percent in July.
It looks like Democrats are going to lose biggest where House districts are whitest, and in state wide elections — read governorships and senate seats — over all black turn out is going to be much lower than the 2008, 2006, and 2004 election cycles.
This is going to kill a number of Democratic senators and likely one or two we did not expect to go based on current polls.
In so many words, the lower the black turn out, the higher the chance of the Senate flipping as well as the House.
[…] further with electorate – hotair.com 08/04/2010 So much for Hope and Change. more… Obamacare Rejected – strata-sphere.com 08/04/2010 The state of Missouri is one of those excellent bell-weather […]
I imagine Obama will send Billy the Bent out to rally the Dims after all Billy was the “First Black President”!
Hope Pinnochio Obama had a nice birthday holed up there alone in his bachelor pad. Was one of his college buddies holed up there with him?
Damn, that prediction came true fast:
Federal judge rules California’s gay marriage ban is unconstitutional, Fox News confirms
Here is the link:
http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_15677141?nclick_check=1
Sen Boxer and Ex-Gov Brown should be terrified about the November elections.
Boy, that’s another bombshell! They’re coming thick and fast now. The ruling class isn’t even bothering to hide their contempt for the prols anymore.
The issue of gay marriage is one that has never made all that much difference to me one way or the other. Unlike for many, it just doesn’t engage my interest too much, probably because I really don’t care much what other people do as long as it doesn’t interfere with what I want to do.
BUT….. I do find it *outrageous* that a ruling class has now set itself up as a New Aristocracy with the right to Rule by Decree no matter what the bothersome hoi polloi want to do. That turns everything this country is supposed to be about on it’s head, and we might as well be back in medieval Europe where men were raised to always defer to their Betters.
If California had voted in favor of gay marriage, then fine, it wouldn’t bother me one bit. But for this new Lord of the Manor to simply wipe out the wishes of the citizenry and replace it with his own Ex Cathedra pronouncements – that’s the kind of thing that sparks a revolution.
And on the other hand – boy, that should REALLY put a rocket under those turnout numbers in November!
WWS,
It appears this Judge Walker wrote a decision based on his sexual and political identity (Gay activist & San Francisco Democrat) rather than the law, and by doing so, he just confirmed the worst, darkest, fears of Religious Conservatives have about Gays with power over them.
Walker is a federal judge and his decision is a direct threat to marriage in every state. Nothing could more galvanize turnout by the GOP base and the religious right.
And he did it 90 days before an off-year Federal election that was going to be really bad for Democrats anyway because of low Democratic voter enthusiasm.
Short of the Supreme Court saying Gun registration is constitutional under the Second Amendment, I can’t see how you can make the GOP base more radioactively angry and willing to kill Democrats at the polls.
American Religious Conservatives will now not settle for anything less than a Constitutional Amendment declaring marriage is strictly for a man and a woman.
And they are going to be a lot larger and better organized single issue organization than the NRA ever thought of being.
Carville pollster shows Democrats stumbling even further with electorate
http://hotair.com/archives/2010/08/04/carville-pollster-shows-democrats-stumbling-even-further-with-electorate/
VIDEO: Pat Caddell Sees a ‘Tidal Wave’ Election in November!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIG7awT4c3E&feature=player_embedded
Ouch!