Aug 12 2010
Unemployment Numbers Getting Worse
The Democrats are all out of silly propaganda gimmicks to hide the utter failure of their socialist economic theories. The unemployment picture looks to be getting even worse as summer jobs shut down and jobless claims begin to climb again:
In the week ending Aug. 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 484,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 482,000. The 4-week moving average was 473,500, an increase of 14,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 459,250.
…
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 420,997 in the week ending Aug. 7, an increase of 18,862 from the previous week. There were 482,590 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009.
Whether ‘adjusted’ or not, the number of initial claims is rising again, per week. And the frightening part of all this is the labor force continues to shed workers, meaning the official unemployment rates are underestimating the problem since these workers are not even counted.
In 2008 at this time of year there were around 154.4 million workers in the labor force. In 2009 there were 154.3 million workers. This year there are only 153.6 million. Which means the labor force has contracted by almost a million workers. We all know the population is not shrinking, but growing. For example, in 2005 the labor force at this time of year was 149.8 million, in 2000 it was 142.3 million.
Simple extrapolation indicates the labor force was adding about 1.5 million workers per year from 2000-2005. If that trend had continued through 2010 then the labor force should have been around 157.3 million workers right now! That means there must be around 3.7 million workers or jobs missing from the economy.
The fact is that the real unemployment rate, assuming a constantly rising work force level, could be as high as 11.5% right now if we assume the workforce should be at 157.3 million people in the summer of 2010. But even if we assume the work force should have held steady between 2008-2010 (at a level of 154.35 million) July’s unemployment rate would be 10% (not the published 9.5%). The truth is somewhere in between 10-11.5%.
And indications are it will be getting a little worse heading into November.
Update: Ed Morrissey chimes in over at Hot Air:
The four-week rolling average will probably have more impact, as it is supposed to eliminate weeklong spikes and troughs. Hitting a six month high shows that whatever gains the US made in Q1 and part of Q2 have more or less dissipated. We have not even come close to the 325,000 level that usually indicates healthy job creation over that which merely keeps up with population growth, and we are once again headed in the wrong direction.
It seems the only ones surprised at this turn of events are the liberal sycophants in the news media.
AJ,
The unemployment situation is worse than that.
Our economy is undergoing net disinvestment in capital stocks required to maintain current levels of employment, let alone increase future employment.
See:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748704164904575421403221676016.html
Firms Spend More—Warily
Equipment Outlays Aim to Make Up for Cutbacks, Not to Boost Production and Jobs
AUGUST 11, 2010
By JUSTIN LAHART
and this key line:
“… the capital stock—the inflation-adjusted value of all business equipment and software in place in the U.S.—dropped 0.9% from 2008—its first decline since World War II.”
The Obama administration will see the ranks of the unemploymed increase in 2011, but will keep playing with workforce participation rates — via the Bureau of Labor Statistics definitional games — to avoid saying we meet the definitional requirements of a Depression…which thier policies will have created.
This Mike “Mish” Shedlock post:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/08/dollar-hits-15-year-low-vs-yen-trade.html
Makes clear that the US Economy in the rear view mirror is much worse than Democratic MSM cheerleaders want anyone to believe:
A swelling trade gap, less stockpiling and weaker construction indicate the U.S. economy slowed even more in the second quarter than the government estimated last month, economists said.
Revisions due later this month may shave last quarter’s 2.4 percent annual growth rate by 1 percentage point or more, according to Morgan Stanley’s David Greenlaw and Nomura Securities International Inc.’s David Resler. The trade deficit in the U.S. unexpectedly widened by $7.9 billion to $49.9 billion in June, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington.
A surge in imports means American companies contributed less to the rise in gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S., than previously estimated. Earlier reports showing smaller gains in inventories and less of a rebound in commercial construction than the government projected will also reduce the pace of expansion.
“The slowdown occurred earlier than we thought,†said Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Global Research in New York. “We expected the recovery to lose momentum only in the second half and now it occurred in the second quarter.â€
People have tuned out the MSM and are now strictly paying attention to their bottom line anmd those of their friends and relatives.
Their bottom line is jobs.
There are not any new ones, and the old ones are disappeaing on Obama’s watch.
This was an observation over on redstate.com you need to think about AJ.
We are in the middle of a new Great Depression, at least in terms of American rural income.
I remember what the much deeper for rural areas recession of 1982 meant for Pres. Ronald Reagan and the then Republican Senate.
I wonder if Pelosi or Reid do?
See:
http://www.redstate.com/neil_stevens/2010/08/12/scott-walker-would-be-bad-news-for-russ-feingold/
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…Farm income was $87 billion in 2008. That was a record year so maybe Bush did something right.
In 2009 it was $58 (billion) or roughly a 1/3 cut in income. This year its projected to be $64 billion or a 1/4 decline from its peak in 2008.
Think Dairy in Wisconsin-Corn in Iowa/Illinois/Missouri. A great deal of this decline in income is recession related but the browning of California farm lands hurts too. I know for DC & for New York media types this (is) flyover stuff.
Rural American, however, is facing a 1/3 cut in income.
So when you look at a state like Wisconsin & Missouri look at all the gaps between the big cities or even medium cities. Those folks are earning a lot less and they vote in big time numbers.
Yes it impacts Wisconsin and Missouri but also Ohio plus many other states.
The flight of the rural midwestern farming communities to the GOP could be the story of the 2010 election
It seems the only ones surprised at this turn of events are the liberal sycophants in the news media.
Well, after all, their favorite word is “unexpectedly”.
–
When can we finally dispense with the charade of calling them the “news media” and refer to them by their right name, the Democrat Propaganda Ministry?
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