Aug 30 2010
Wow – I was not expecting to see this so soon. Rasmussen has WV’s senate seat race all of a sudden extremely tight with the Democrat Manchin getting 48% and GOP contender Raese getting 42%. With a MoE of +/- 4.5% that is basically a statistical tie. Worse for the Dems is the fact Manchin was 16% ahead a month ago. If that is a trend line Manchin will be behind by mid September. That would put 12 Dem Senate seats in play this year (DE, PA, WV, IL, IN, WI, ND, AR, CO, NV, CA, WA) Â - more than enough margin for the GOP in a wave to take control. If CT also slid into contention, then it would indicate the House is already gone and the Senate is on the brink (if not also gone).
Update: Ed Morrissey correctly notes the confidence breaker this has to be to Democrats who wondered where their Recovery Summer went:
Seventy percent of independents approve of Manchinâ€™s performance as governor, but if they send him to Washington, he wonâ€™t be in charge of the agenda. Only 15% of independents approve of Obamaâ€™s performance, while 78% of them strongly disapprove. Those voters wonâ€™t be anxious to send Manchin to the Senate to enable more of the Obama-Nancy Pelosi- Harry Reid agenda. That 51% rating from before the primary may start looking pretty tasty to Manchin, and thereâ€™s now a strong possibility that the people of West Virginia may leave Manchin in the job they apparently want him to keep. This race is far from over.
Ed is correct in giving credit to the average WV voter for understanding a vote for Manchin is a license for Obama and Pelosi (I doubt Reid survives) to further destroy our economy and way of life. Everyone is starting to see the November election as the last chance to apply the 2×4 across the head of DC (and NY and San Fran, …). Democrats have refused to listen – even to their left of center base (half their voters). America has succumbed to the conclusion it is better to send fresh GOP faces to DC than to continue to pretend Democrats will temper their liberal whackiness come January.
In fact, if the Dems even get a hint of cheating death, the next two years will make the last two look like a cake walk. We all know the Dems will take even the slightest win as carte blanche to go farther left, even faster. Too much is at stake this November for nuance and benefit of the doubt. Even if you are a conservative member of the ‘big government’ party, you are on the wrong side in 2010.