Aug 30 2010
WV Senate Seat In Play!
Wow – I was not expecting to see this so soon. Rasmussen has WV’s senate seat race all of a sudden extremely tight with the Democrat Manchin getting 48% and GOP contender Raese getting 42%. With a MoE of +/- 4.5% that is basically a statistical tie. Worse for the Dems is the fact Manchin was 16% ahead a month ago. If that is a trend line Manchin will be behind by mid September. That would put 12 Dem Senate seats in play this year (DE, PA, WV, IL, IN, WI, ND, AR, CO, NV, CA, WA) Â – more than enough margin for the GOP in a wave to take control. If CT also slid into contention, then it would indicate the House is already gone and the Senate is on the brink (if not also gone).
Update: Ed Morrissey correctly notes the confidence breaker this has to be to Democrats who wondered where their Recovery Summer went:
Seventy percent of independents approve of Manchin’s performance as governor, but if they send him to Washington, he won’t be in charge of the agenda. Only 15% of independents approve of Obama’s performance, while 78% of them strongly disapprove. Those voters won’t be anxious to send Manchin to the Senate to enable more of the Obama-Nancy Pelosi- Harry Reid agenda. That 51% rating from before the primary may start looking pretty tasty to Manchin, and there’s now a strong possibility that the people of West Virginia may leave Manchin in the job they apparently want him to keep. This race is far from over.
Ed is correct in giving credit to the average WV voter for understanding a vote for Manchin is a license for Obama and Pelosi (I doubt Reid survives) to further destroy our economy and way of life. Everyone is starting to see the November election as the last chance to apply the 2×4 across the head of DC (and NY and San Fran, …). Democrats have refused to listen – even to their left of center base (half their voters). America has succumbed to the conclusion it is better to send fresh GOP faces to DC than to continue to pretend Democrats will temper their liberal whackiness come January.
In fact, if the Dems even get a hint of cheating death, the next two years will make the last two look like a cake walk. We all know the Dems will take even the slightest win as carte blanche to go farther left, even faster. Too much is at stake this November for nuance and benefit of the doubt. Even if you are a conservative member of the ‘big government’ party, you are on the wrong side in 2010.
Wow. Still – 6 points is outside the MOE, but if the trend holds… it could happen.
I expect everything tightens up by November, and the GOP tsunami turns into a mere tidal wave. But, we can still get back to divided government and rationality if the GOP takes 8 Dem Senate seats. Then the count is 51-49 advantage Dems, but Lieberman and Nelson will be in play. To understand why, you have to look at 2012.
In 2012 the Republicans will have a huge structural advantage in the Senate elections. Of the 33 seats contested, 23 are held by Democrats and 10 by Republicans. The Democrats will be on defense with many more seats to defend, the Republicans will have a target rich environment. If they don’t already have the majority, it is a lock the GOP will take the majority in 2012.
Why is this important in 2010? Because Senators Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman can count. If the GOP gets within 1 or 2 seats of an outright majority, Nelson and Lieberman will be in play. They’ll have one shot to cut a deal to guarantee their committee chairmanships for at least another 4-6 years (if re-elected), whereas they will be out as Committee chairs after two years if they continue to caucus Democratic. This also applies to Crist should he knock off Rubio in Florida. My take – these guys like the power and perks that come with committee chairmanships and will not be inclined to give them up too quickly. It just would not be as much fun for them, being in the Senate without that chair. But for this to play out, the GOP must take 8.
My full analysis at 10 in ’10
[…] Party says no to nominating Murkowski – hotair.com 08/30/2010 Wow. more… WV Senate Seat In Play! – strata-sphere.com 08/30/2010 Wow – I was not expecting to see this so soon. Rasmussen […]
AJ,
I told you and WWS that this was going to happen, based Michael Barone’s map of who the WVA voters are.
The next place to watch for Democratic Senate collapse is Connecticut.
This is unbelievable. And a report following this news indicating that the GOP is ten points ahead of the Dems, widest in 68 years ever.
So, Trent, Who do you think will emerge as the winner in Alaska after the absentee ballot voting counts? Miller or the dingbat Murkowski?
We are in the close election, vote count, “ionization layer,” to borrow a term from a friend of mine.
Murkowski didn’t think she was going to lose, she was ahead 40% points eight weeks ago, so she doesn’t have the structure in place to steal a close election.
IMO, I think that means Miller will win, but likely by less than 100 votes, given the nature of the voting pattern I have seen reported thus far.
Trent, I also predicted it would happen when Byrd died. I agreed with you then – and still do!