Sep 07 2010
The first polls of the election season are coming in and the numbers are so bad it might be a good idea to put the left on suicide watch. No one living has ever seen the types of numbers we are seeing in the polls for the midterms (though no one should be surprised by results some of us predicted over a year ago). The nation is not far left in its views, it is right of center. The nation abhors parties or politicians who make false promises, who make failed promises or who use their position if public trust for greed (theirs or their cronies). Do all three and you hit the trifecta!
But America also abhors jarring shifts in policies. Americans broadly like America and are proud of being a part of it. They always want some adjustments, but by and large they have been happy with it. When things fail, they want a correction – not massive change. Make foolish changes and the people will fire you faster than you can say ‘hyper partisan’.
The liberals either never understood this or did not care. When they took the reigns of power in 2009 they began a massive upheaval to change the essence of America and its uniquely independent people. Now America is fighting back, ready to stop the liberal ‘change’ they never agreed to, never wanted and now know will never work. The Democrats went beyond America’s zone of tolerance, and they are paying the price.
The first poll to shock the Political Industrial Complex was the Gallup congressional generic ballot poll among registered voters, that showed the GOP leading 51-41%. This was a GOP lead the size of which Gallup had never seen in all its years of polling. Worse yet for the Dems, it was not a likely voter model. This more accurate model would have produced a lead of +14% – a result that would indicate historic gains in the house, well beyond the 39 seats needed to take control.
Then came news that the Senate was also in play, with 11 of the Â top 12 senates seats likely to switch parties now on the Democrat side with 6-7 already gone.Â Many political prognosticators finally had seen enough data to note the Senate was on the verge of being lost to the Dems – a concept that was laughable only a few weeks ago. The house all but gone, the governorships all but gone, the senate in play – could it get any worse? In a word: Yes.
Yesterday the avalanche picked up again with CNN noting the GOP had a +7% lead on the generic ballot question, Rasmussen came out with +12%. In that CNN poll, the GOP led the Dems with independent voters by a staggering 30%. These two polls were indicating the Gallup poll may not be much of an outlier after all, and more an indication that the Democrat Party had so alienated itself from the voters it had sealed its fate with uncommon force.
Today, more polls are coming out confirming the situation, leaving the Dems without much hope or opportunity to stop the pending political slaughter. The latest WSJ-NBC news poll shows the GOP leading among likely voters 49-40%. Update: MSNBC is noting that the likely voter number of +9% in the WSJ-NBC poll goes to a mind boggling +18% if you look at those highly interested in voting! - end update
The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll shows the GOP leading among likely voters 53-40%. To summarize, the latest polls on the generic ballot have shown:
- Gallup +10%
- Rassmussen +12%
- CNN +7%
- WSJ-NBC +9%
- WaPo-ABC +13%
Only Gallup is of registered voters, not likely voters. The average across these polls in terms of GOP lead is 10.2% – which under various election models would indicate a landslide the likes of which has not been seen in living memory (60-80 seats, or more). The problem for the Dems is their past success. They begin with 50 seats they took in recent election cycles that are nominally GOP. Once you get beyond these 50, there are a lot of normal Democrat seats now at risk. In 1994 the Dems lost 54 seats. In 2010 that appears to be on the low end of possibilities.
I expect a lot of denial on the left, mixed in with a lot of anger and finger pointing at everyone else except the source of this force. The Dems succumbed to the liberal element of their party, followed their lead and are going to be rejected by a country not interested in liberal fantasies or policies. The result was never really in question – was it?
A few final thoughts on the disparity in voter intensity. I think many of the pro-democrat supporters who are not enthusiastic may also be uncomfortable with the massive upheaval wrought by the Dems in less than two years. You can be pro this or that, but the pace of going down some of these paths, even for strong supporters, must be measured. Rushing headlong without any thought of the consequences (i.e., health care reform, global warming proposals) can push many supporters into the opposition just due being reckless. You see this with pro-life views on the right. Many people are pro-life but are not ready to put a blanket law in place removing this tough decision from the family and their doctor. There Â are boundaries, not just in scope, but also in implementation. I think the liberals have so shocked and disappointed the nation that many left of center voters are now hesitating, and withholding their support for more upheaval.