Sep 07 2010

Numerous Polls Predict Huge GOP Gains This November

Published by at 7:37 am under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

The first polls of the election season are coming in and the numbers are so bad it might be a good idea to put the left on suicide watch. No one living has ever seen the types of numbers we are seeing in the polls for the midterms (though no one should be surprised by results some of us predicted over a year ago). The nation is not far left in its views, it is right of center. The nation abhors parties or politicians who make false promises, who make failed promises or who use their position if public trust for greed (theirs or their cronies). Do all three and you hit the trifecta!

But America also abhors jarring shifts in policies. Americans broadly like America and are proud of being a part of it. They always want some adjustments, but by and large they have been happy with it. When things fail, they want a correction – not massive change. Make foolish changes and the people will fire you faster than you can say ‘hyper partisan’.

The liberals either never understood this or did not care. When they took the reigns of power in 2009 they began a massive upheaval to change the essence of America and its uniquely independent people. Now America is fighting back, ready to stop the liberal ‘change’ they never agreed to, never wanted and now know will never work. The Democrats went beyond America’s zone of tolerance, and they are paying the price.

The first poll to shock the Political Industrial Complex was the Gallup congressional generic ballot poll among registered voters, that showed the GOP leading 51-41%. This was a GOP lead the size of which Gallup had never seen in all its years of polling. Worse yet for the Dems, it was not a likely voter model. This more accurate model would have produced a lead of +14% – a result that would indicate historic gains in the house, well beyond the 39 seats needed to take control.

Then came news that the Senate was also in play, with 11 of the  top 12 senates seats likely to switch parties now on the Democrat side with 6-7 already gone. Many political prognosticators finally had seen enough data to note the Senate was on the verge of being lost to the Dems – a concept that was laughable only a few weeks ago. The house all but gone, the governorships all but gone, the senate in play – could it get any worse? In a word: Yes.

Yesterday the avalanche picked up again with CNN noting the GOP had a +7% lead on the generic ballot question, Rasmussen came out with +12%. In that CNN poll, the GOP led the Dems with independent voters by a staggering 30%. These two polls were indicating the Gallup poll may not be much of an outlier after all, and more an indication that the Democrat Party had so alienated itself from the voters it had sealed its fate with uncommon force.

Today, more polls are coming out confirming the situation, leaving the Dems without much hope or opportunity to stop the pending political slaughter. The latest WSJ-NBC news poll shows the GOP leading among likely voters 49-40%. Update: MSNBC is noting that the likely voter number of +9% in the WSJ-NBC poll goes to a mind boggling +18% if you look at those highly interested in voting! - end update

The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll shows the GOP leading among likely voters 53-40%. To summarize, the latest polls on the generic ballot have shown:

  • Gallup +10%
  • Rassmussen +12%
  • CNN +7%
  • WSJ-NBC +9%
  • WaPo-ABC +13%

Only Gallup is of registered voters, not likely voters. The average across these polls in terms of GOP lead is 10.2% – which under various election models would indicate a landslide the likes of which has not been seen in living memory (60-80 seats, or more). The problem for the Dems is their past success. They begin with 50 seats they took in recent election cycles that are nominally GOP. Once you get beyond these 50, there are a lot of normal Democrat seats now at risk. In 1994 the Dems lost 54 seats. In 2010 that appears to be on the low end of possibilities.

I expect a lot of denial on the left, mixed in with a lot of anger and finger pointing at everyone else except the source of this force. The Dems succumbed to the liberal element of their party, followed their lead and are going to be rejected by a country not interested in liberal fantasies or policies. The result was never really in question – was it?

A few final thoughts on the disparity in voter intensity. I think many of the pro-democrat supporters who are not enthusiastic may also be uncomfortable with the massive upheaval wrought by the Dems in less than two years. You can be pro this or that, but the pace of going down some of these paths, even for strong supporters, must be measured. Rushing headlong without any thought of the consequences (i.e., health care reform, global warming proposals) can push many supporters into the opposition just due being reckless. You see this with pro-life views on the right. Many people are pro-life but are not ready to put a blanket law in place removing this tough decision from the family and their doctor. There  are boundaries, not just in scope, but also in implementation. I think the liberals have so shocked and disappointed the nation that many left of center voters are now hesitating, and withholding their support for more upheaval.

33 responses so far

33 Responses to “Numerous Polls Predict Huge GOP Gains This November”

  1. WWS says:

    Facing the no-win scenario (aka the Kobayishu Maru test) doesn’t *build* character; it simply reveals the true character of the subject to everyone else.

    Put another way, when all the chips are down and there’s nothing to be gained, the true self comes out. And in some people, especially the manipulators, it’s a very ugly thing indeed.

  2. lurker9876 says:

    ““Treated like a dog” is not just a flippant expression. It is a carefully chosen expression to engender racial tension. In the South when blacks invoke this expression, its not far from saying are you calling me a n****r.
    He is trying to whip up tension.”

    My gosh, I have lived in the south since the mid-60’s and I have never heard of this expression.

    Well, Obama just revealed to us that he will allow the top tax rate to expire. He will veto any bill that extends all tax rates to all levels.

    Well, the more he does these things, the angrier the Americans will get. So good for him to push for really bad policies.

    BTW, wws, I understand that the local Democratic party has asked the Department of Justice to come down to monitor the election process.

    Good grief. After Adams’ letters going to many states that they are responsible for the integrity of elections, surely, you’d think this DoJ cares about the integrity of our local elections? Guess not!

  3. AJStrata says:

    Fai,

    The answer is “the plague decides who dies, nature selects’.

  4. AJ,

    This is a development to watch very closely.

    http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2010/09/027178.php

    Immediately upon taking office, however, Obama and Holder embarked on a program of partisan law enforcement the likes of which this country may never have seen before.

    The latest manifestation of the Obama administration’s perversion of justice is noted by former DOJ lawyer Chris Adams–a deliberate decision, for political reasons, not to enforce Section 8 of the “Motor Voter” law:

    The Obama Administration does not intend for the 2012 elections to be fair.

    They are going to use the DoJ to selectively enforce the voter laws to increase chances of Obama’s victory.

    This is political death ground for the American Republic.

  5. AJStrata says:

    Trent,

    If the House goes GOP, then chicanery will be difficult to hide from oversight. And if Team Obama gets caught rigging votes, the backlash will be brutal. The fools in the WH think they still have some aura of “the One” to deflect oversight and accusations. The fact his faith is now in question by larger numbers of people is a sign people are not giving him any benefits of the doubt any more.

    Once you lose credibility, it is amazing how much authority and power go with it.

    You have to assume there are Secretaries of State across this nation willing to go along – won’t happen. Dems are in the ‘save yourself’ mode now. No one is going to risk jail for this crowd in the WH.

  6. lurker9876 says:

    Trent and AJ,

    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/245897/there-really-something-rotten-justice-department-hans-von-spakovsky

    There Really Is Something Rotten in the Justice Department

    The author of this article was accused as vote suppressors.

    Then we get this article written by Bryan Preston:

    http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/it%E2%80%99s-time-to-worry-about-houston/

    It’s Time to Worry About Houston
    Voter fraud and a suspicious fire threaten the November elections in Texas’ largest city. (Author Bryan Preston joins the PJM and PJTV staffs today.)

    “That’s not good enough for the Democrats. Rather than pull together and work with the county and the state to support the Apollo-level effort to maintain the vote, the Texas Democratic Party, controlled by a Washington activist, is suing Vasquez. But even more dangerous, the Democrats have used the occasion to call for the Justice Department to step in and “monitor” Harris County’s elections.”

    The reason the Democrats are fighting for Houston is because they believe that if Bill White wins Houston, he will win the entire state.

    But there’s a huge fight for Houston by both sides. And you just might be right that there is going to be a huge backlash.

  7. AJStrata says:

    Lurker, I agree there is something to worry about, but not for 2010 and not for the GOP. Vote fraud is something the GOP can investigate in the new Congress with little risk of backlash.

    The ones who should be sweating now are the Dems and whoever is behind all this. They will look good in front of the House cameras testifying under oath.

  8. >If the House goes GOP, then chicanery will be difficult to hide
    >from oversight.

    AJ,

    Obama is a Chicago Leftist.

    Vote stealing is the Chicago way.

    Think “One man, One vote, One time, and i get to count the votes” and you capture the Obama Administration mind set.

    Selective enforcement of the law only has to work long enough to get Obama reelected.

    What counts here is the secretaries of state, in the various state governments, and lots of testimoney under oath before Congress by AG Holder and the Civil Rights Division lawyers after 2010.

  9. oneal lane says:

    Case in point….

    “My gosh, I have lived in the south since the mid-60’s and I have never heard of this expression.”

    That’s why is an effective ploy, his target audience “gets it” but you won’t. He is whipping up his core base. Playing the race card in a more subtile manner.

  10. lurker9876,

    Black folks talk differently to audiences of just black folks than mixed company.

    (White do too, but they don’t need to as often, as they are the majority.)

    This is very much recognized in popular culture.

    Go rent a copy of “Mississippi Masala”

  11. oneal lane says:

    You got it Trent. I have lots of black friends from/in the inner city. I can hang out with them myself and understand everything. When the neighbors or family come over and they start talking, I cannot understand what they are saying. The speed and inflection is instantly different (very fast). They are speaking english but in a very different “meter”. And then throw in the ebonic termanology, and the shaded meaning, like in this instace “dog” and your in another country. But you will only hear this if they are comfortable with you, or, you can hear it on the street if you listen.

  12. AJ, WWS,

    We have a West Virginia cave-in, in-progress, via the NRO Campaign spot blog:

    New from Rasmussen this morning:
    .
    The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in West Virginia shows Manchin with 50% support and Raese with 45%, when leaners are included. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) are undecided. The West Virginia race now moves from Leans Democratic to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings. Less than two weeks ago, the first post-primary survey of the race moved it from Solid Democratic to Leans Democratic.

  13. [...] over the labor day weekend (note the connection between a long weekend and one strange poll result) a slew of other polls came out that showed an enormous lead for the GOP in this fall’s elections. As I predicted on [...]