Sep 13 2010
Will Tea Party Have Upset In DE, Or Will Far Right Fail Again?
Public Policy Polling is out with a poll showing a nail-biter in the GOP primary in DE for VP Biden’s Senate seat. PPP has Christine O’Donnell – easily the worst candidate the Tea Party has promoted this year (outside a string of really good candidates) – leading Mike Castle 47-44%. This is within the margin of error, so turn out is key and who knows what it will be.
PPP was the only organization to detect Senator Lisa Murkowski’s troubles in her GOP Alaska primary, which she lost to a Tea Party candidate. But you can easily miss the intensity of the independents and center right in a state like DE. The dynamics are just not the same. And pollsters can easily miss the fact the Tea Party has a very small, but intense far right component to it, which makes it appear to be farther right than it really is.
O’Donnell is a true disaster, and goes to show that all political movements and parties have a range of supporters and candidates – from the abysmal to the inspiring. The Tea Party is no different. O’Donnell has some serious issues with the truth, issues with being a role model and issues with being someone you would trust your kids with for 10 minutes. While she may have some gems of sanity here and there, the total package is lacking. It is more a sign how small the conservative movement has become in deep blue states, distilled down to the far right crowd which do not represent the broader American electorate.
We shall see tomorrow if America’s priority is to throw the Dems our or to elect the most unelectable candidate in the nation simply because she is further right of the stronger GOP candidate on a handful of issues. Sadly, we see the right wing zealots raising their intolerant voices again as the would rather see radical conservative lose control of the US Senate to the dems than see a center-right conservative vote in a new GOP Senate Majority Leader. Clearly, there are those on the right who are really just the mirror image of the far left. They are creating a rift in the movement to unseat the Democrats this year, and as usual are out hunting RINOS. Pathetic.
An O’Donnell win would damage the Tea Party across the country, so don’t think the damage could be limited to DE. Someone as shaky as O’Donnell could cause a lot of doubt and loss of support for reasonable candidates in NV, CO, PA, etc. Remember, We The People recently fired the GOP from Congress in the last two elections, they are not swarming to the right out of inspiration. Jim DeMint may get his impotent rump party, pure and ineffective due to its small size (and yes, in politics size counts).
I have  my doubts O’Donnell will win in tomorrow’s primary. Pollsters have not been able to demonstrate any accuracy this season, though PPP has done it on occasion. Whatever the result, it is the way our democracy works so we will accept the decisions of the people of DE. Even if that decisions is just as horrendous as the decisions good Americans made in 2006 and 2008. After all, if conservatives are not for democracy then they are simply pretend conservatives.
Update: Jim Geraghty at NRO has a good round up of the fault lines being established thanks to the far right slamming people who disagree with them – just like liberals do.
AJ, it’s not just the far right. Or the far left. The ‘moderate’ zealots lack nothing in the intolerance department.
This boils down to a failure on ALL sides to grasp two facts.
First, your opponent is not a villian in his own mind. He may disagree with you, but that disagreement makes him wrong, not evil.
Second, sometimes your guy loses the primary. When he does, you don’t go off in a snit. You do what Reagan did in 1976 – support the guy who DID win the nomination and retool your campaign for the next election.
Mike M, I agree with much of what you say. I did not support Obama, but did give him time to prove my doubts wrong – before jumping on his mistakes.
But there is a far left and far right, and they want to dictate to the nation and the world their views. They have no tolerance, few if any good ideas and succumb to diatribes against others to compensate for their own weaknesses.
We are learning as a nation these groups need to be shunned. Just as other groups in history have needed firm rejection.
BTW, I rarely point to anyone and say ‘they are far right’. The exceptions of course are the Mark Levins and Michael Savage class who rant and rave like lunatics. But beyond the obvious candidates, I never say anyone is far right. They seem to jump to that classification all on their own!
Well, if O’Donnell wins the primary, she’ll probably lose the general and Delaware will have a Senator who votes with the Dems on every important issue.
On the other hand, if Castle wins, he should win the General easily, and… Delaware will have a Senator who votes with the Dems on every important issue.
oh wait….
Personally, I’m with Jim Geraghty on this one. Neither candidate is any prize.
It’s really too bad that Delaware has no viable candidates to run against the Democrats.
Sometimes I see tolerance as “go along to get along” and I’d rather not have that all the time. Sometimes, I see the far right being more tolerant than anyone in the middle.
I would have a difficult time determining my vote if I lived in Delaware. None of the candidates appealed to me and it’s hard to determine the lesser of the two or three evils in this situation.
wws, it appears that Jay Cost doesn’t like either one but he looked at the statistics and determined that the odds of getting ObamaCare repealed are better with Mike Castle.
Delaware isn’t going to help the Republicans in the next two plus years no matter its outcome so it’s up the people of Delaware to come up with a better candidate for the next election in its own state.
WWS,
Sorry mate but that simplistic thinking isn’t going to fly. Castle will be a senator in the majority, and he will horse trade his support to the GOP for things he wants done. He also is likely to be a one term senator at his age, which means he can grease the skids for another GOP candidate more to the right.
Politics is a long, grueling chess game. Instant and full gratification is never an option, and always leads to set backs with the voters.
If people want to play, learn that this is a multi-election campaign and deal with it.
As a one term Senator Castle is far more dangerous to the GOP as he has nothin to lose thus could flip to the Dems in word and deed! He is one of the most Liberal House members of the GOP and votes with the Dems on many important issues even gettin an F from the NRA. We had the same choice in 08 Dem vs Dem Lite and the Dems win either way.
Slow boat to statism or jet there.
This is a PRIMARY, Sarah is behind Christine because she knows we need citizens legislators NOT career corruptocrats!
Don’t hypervetilate here. Nothin says that Christine can’t win the general, these are special times and people are fed up with the DC insiders.
DE will decide and then we shall see if we have another entitled corrupt poll ala Murkowski or Crist who refuses to accept the will of the people or not. Whomever wins should do so gracefully and the loser should be gracious and support the winner. Alas the entitled RINOs appear not to like that idea in Florida and Alaska.
Its a PRIMARY and PRIMARIES bring out the competition and thats’ a good thing IF all come together after!
Dhunter, you have zero proof Castle is so single minded and not supportive of the general GOP cause. None.
In fact, this purity crap is the same BS that put Obama in office, able to destroy our country from the ground up, in the first place!
Holy cow – does anyone really think keeping Reid and Obama in office is better than having Castle and Obama in office, where Castle is now part of the GOP majority (who get to set the legislative schedule, including what bills and amendments get voted on)?
Ugh – the far right deserves what they get if they keep playing purity games.
Dan Reihl has a post up saying that this has nothing to do with conservative purity. It has everything to do with the electibility of a Republican in the general election but he doesn’t believe that Christine will lose in the general election either.
And I haven’t seen any purity games being played out either.
Castles voting record, for Cap and tax speaks for itself research his record and see that he votes with the Dems much of the time and against Republicans more than Snow and Collins.
Respectfully AJ you have no proof that Christine cannot win the general or that Castle will.
His numbers are tanking as the people see who the incumbant really is.
There is no gain in name calling, it is a Primary and this is what they are for, to find the strongest and best candidate. If one cannot abide that then I would suggest that the purity test resides with the one who cannot abide the voice of the people through the ballot!
This does not have to be R on R in the general it is what primaries are for, or are we not to allow competition any longer?
There are many points to consider in the unemotional analysis of these two candidates.
Is Castle for Cap and Trade?
Is Castle going to add to the Graham, McCain, Snowe, Collins, Brown coalition who vote with both democrats and republicans?
What are the specifics of O’Donnell’s negatives?
Who are the Tea Partiers in Delaware, ie, are they both democrats and republicans?
I agree completely that this is a multi-election campaign. But there’s another way to look at that.
This will sound nuts at first read, but consider this – there’s a case to be made that Republicans are better off with the Delaware election going to the Democrats rather than to the Republicans this time. Here’s the case: looking at vulnerable seats, Republicans are going to take the Senate either this year or in 2012. It actually may be politically more advantageous for the GOP to only win 8 or 9 seats this time, leaving the Dems in control of the chamber but without enough support to pass much. The economy is going to continue to be in horrible shape, and this will make the Dem’s continue to share ownership of it rather than allow Obama to run in 2012 on a campaign of blaming a Republican Congress for everything, the way Clinton did in ’96.
The House is what’s important this year -that’s where the investigations can take place, and where funding levels will be decided. A closely divided Senate will be neutered for the next 2 years no matter which party controls it. Obama will be able to block any major legislative initiatives if the Republicans win, and a GOP House will be able to block any Democrat initiatives if they win. This is going to be an incredibly weak Senate either way.
So, controlling the Senate for the next 2 years would be nice, but may turn out to be a booby prize. If I were a Delaware voter, I certainly wouldn’t consider it to be enough of a prize that I would sell my political soul for it. And a “win at any cost” usually ends up not being worth the price that you have to pay.
I’m no fan of O’Donnell, the lawsuit alone is enough to peg her as an opportunistic flake. But I also could never support anyone who actively supported Cap and Trade, the way Castle did. He’s also said that he considers talk about eliminating the Education Dept and other agencies “extremist.” The question is, which one will do more harm if elected? O’Donnell will shoot her mouth off, act up, and get bad publicity. Castle will talk a good game but has the demonstrated potential to sabotage Republican efforts on most key votes. And he looks to be exactly the kind of Arlen Specter – Charlie Crist – Bob Ingles – Lisa Murkowski big government, big spending, big earmark type of GOP Politician who got the country universally disgusted with Republicans the last time they controlled Congress. If he works to destroy the smaller government brand that Republcans are now attempting to reclaim, he might do far more harm than good.
There’s a good chance that it’s in the Republican’s long term best interests for both of them to lose.
Exactly, WWS.
See Polipundit’s Castle’s Record” on the Conservative Blog Advertising up top. He has voted for *unpopular* liberal bills according to Polipundit.
FTP: “Now that Mike Castle is facing a real primary challenge, we’re forced to consider just what kind of senator he might be. The answer: Another Arlen Specter.”
AJ, THIS is the dilemma for voters. They have had ENOUGH of politics as usual.
These are not normal times. And for every action, there is an opposite and equal reaction. The pendulum has swung far, far to the left and therefore must swing in accordance so that we may get to a more *balanced* situation. And there is NOTHING balanced about the current administration, imho.
Under normal circumstances, we could go the traditional route. Not today. As far as I am concerned, a stealth war is being waged on America and we must respond accordingly. See Joan Swirsky’s latest article at Canada Free Press. It is VERY interesting.
Let the voters decide. And in November, shame on them if they vote for Pelosi/Reid/Obama to continue their assault on America.
Any path that leaves the Senate in the hands of the Dems is idiotic. Any rationale used to achieve that goal is idiotic. Anyone who would lose the senate based on marginal differences in voting records and by promoting a candidate who is irrational and dodgy is a ideologue.
Which is really what this election is about. It is about dumping ideologues and getting back to mature, adult consensus. No one wants pure hyper-partisan fringes.
Which is why either the far right loses tomorrow or the GOP loses tomorrow. The nation can live with a diverse GOP, and it can live without a far right GOP.
That is the harsh truth.
AJ, we cannot afford Cap and Trade. Or the Healthcare debacle.
If I am a Bush supporter, am I far right?
I spent many years in Delaware. On the whole it is a very liberal electorate. Any Republican candidate elected there will have to be a bit to the left of the Republican mainstream if they want to keep their job. The vast majority of the population is in urban New Castle County and is politically not much different than nearby Philadelphia. The other major population center is Newark which is a college town (University of Delaware). New Castle County’s population is about 500,000. The population of the entire state is 885,122 according to the latest numbers I have which is smaller than the city of San Jose, California. Liberal New Castle County swamps the rest of the state in population and votes. The lower two counties do tend to be more rural and more conservative but their votes basically don’t count for much.
A politician that does not reflect the views of the electorate does not last long in their job. Castle understands this having been governor of the state. That said, Castle is somewhat of a political jellyfish. He will tell you today what he believes is the popular meme today but that might change next week.
Cross, I think we would all agree with you IF this were a traditional year. It is not. The country is appalled at what has happened in Washington. And it is appalled at the liberal agenda of this administration….which MUST be removed once and for all, from our “political choices”. They do.not. ever represent America.
If the voters want Castle, then they will vote for him. But,imho, things have changed this year and I don’t mean in the direction of the pelosi/reid/obama way.
AND, I am very aware of the democrats wanting to paint republicans as extremists. THEY are the extremists and they can’t get away from their records.