Sep 14 2010

Democrats Privately Surrender Congress 2010

Published by at 2:13 pm under 2010 Elections,All General Discussions

No surprise here – given that the House is gone and the Senate is 2 races from being gone (out of 13 in play):

In my experience, ‘the big-time Democrat’ has hardly ever been wrong. He does not dislike President Obama. On the contrary, like most big-time Democrats, he worked hard for his election in 2008 and would much rather see Democrats hold onto Congress this Nov. 2 than lose.

He just doesn’t think it’s going to happen. A few months ago, he told me Democrats could win the House in a squeaker and also retain the Senate. We talked again a few days ago, and things had changed.

There is going to be a total wipeout, and it is totally going to be in Obama’s lap,” he said. “He should drop plans for Congress and plan for Nov. 3 and what he does next.”

That wave is here. The only question is how historic it will be. I am still betting it will be one for the all time record books.

9 responses so far

9 Responses to “Democrats Privately Surrender Congress 2010”

  1. [...] question is, can Delaware Republicans who have invested so much t more… Democrats Privately Surrender Congress 2010 – strata-sphere.com 09/14/2010 No surprise here – given that the House is gone and the [...]

  2. This is when Deforest Kelly comes in and says “He’s Dead, Jim” for the red shirt.

    And the House and Senate Democrats are all wearing Obama’s Red Shirt.

  3. AJ,

    The more House seats in serious contestation are in states with serious Senate or Governor challenges (or Republican incumbents favored to win), the worse the beating the Dems will take.

    Your Tsunami is a reflection of large numbers of Democrats in the Governor/Senator slots doing so badly that they are killing down ballot Democratic Party candidates, particularly House candidates.

    What we are seeing here:

    http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/246550/dcccs-ad-offensive-shrinks-again

    …is the DCCC reacting to just one of the “top of the ballot electoral collapses” in progress as Toomey and the Republican governor candidate (blanking on his name) run up the score and kill down ballot Democratic House candidates.

    Here is a list of other states where you are soon going to see DCCC money leaving the table:

    Georgia: Johnny Isakson +12 over Michael Thurmond per Insider Advantage for WSB. MoE 4.

    Louisiana: David Vitter +12 over Charlie Melancon per Clarus Research Group for WWL and other Louisiana stations. MoE 4.

    Arkansas: John Boozman +38 over Blanche Lincoln per Rasmussen Reports. MoE 4.

    The best performing Democratic Mid-Western governors is Ted Strictland of Ohio and he is getting killed. Which is why the Ohio Senate race is going Republican in a big way at the same time.

    If you lay out the pattern of Republican Gov/Senator blow outs on a map. You will see states with a 89% or higher wipe out of of “toss up” Democratic House seats and above average numbers (50-75%) of “Leans Democratic” House seats going Republican.

    A serious poli-sci guy trying to handicap the races would probably be able to come up with a pretty good correction to the basic estimate by looking at that.

  4. AJStrata says:

    Trent,

    Absolutely agree with you. There are coat tails of all sorts. I think Harry Reid will be pulled under by his son Rory Reid, because once a voter votes against the son (top of the ticket) then they will be more likely to hit Dad too! And poor governor races can depress party turnout. If you don’t like your governor choice you are much more likely to stay home than your Senate or Congressional choices.

  5. WWS says:

    House Dems = Obama’s Red Shirt Brigade.

    I like that!

  6. AJ,

    Sean Higgins is reporting for Investor’s Business Daily that Sen. Reid just introduced a “Dream Act” Immigration Provision To Defense Bill AKA illegal immigrant amnesty.

    Reid thinks he is going to lose.

    Senator Boxer of California just cancelled all media buys for the California central Valley.

    The Central Valley is going Republican, but there are hispanic votes to be had there and those count in a close election.

    Sen. Boxer giving up cheap media buys there for the San Fran and SoCal media markets means her campaign did a return on investment calculation based on limited campaign funds.

    Given how Whitman just hammered Brown I am not surprised, but it means BOXER HAS MONEY PROBLEMS.

    The Democrat’s Senate “Firewall” is under threat froma lack of cash.

  7. WWS says:

    The Dream Act – incredible at this stage in the game! But I think his fellow Dems are going to force him to drop this before it gets to a vote, they still have some slim hopes of getting out of this alive and they’re not ready to pour the political gasoline over their heads and strike a match yet – the way Reid apparently is!

    Boxer has money troubles, fascinating – good catch!

  8. WWS,

    Spanish language media in the Central Valley are cheap compared to the Coasts and the LA Basin.

    30 seconds advertising in the LA basin buys several minutes in the Central Valley.

    Yet see:

    http://www.redstate.com/neil_stevens/2010/09/13/boxer-doing-triage-in-california/

    …”She has a new television ad out, which the Sacramento Bee points out is running in “the Sacramento, San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego media markets.”
    .
    That’s interesting because of the markets it leaves out: the ones right down the middle of the state, including Bakersfield and Fresno. Boxer is giving up the bulk of the central valley to Carly Fiorina. In fact Stockton and Modesto count as part of the Sacramento Television Market Area, so technically we don’t know if the ad will be shown there, either, or just in Sacramento proper.
    .
    Barbara Boxer is conceding some paths to victory, and is banking on the coast plus the capital to take her to victory. That’s a narrow road to walk, especially when LA County could go either way. It’s no wonder her new ad does not contain the words “Senator” or “Democrat” in it at any point. So even as she pulls up things she did 9 years ago to justify being re-elected this time, she’s afraid to run on her party.

    If Boxer had enough money in a close election, she would heavily advertise on all Central Valley media, Spanish or English, for votes.

    She isn’t.

    The only answer is that someone in her campaign did a cost versus return on investment calculation on a limited media budget budget and killed her media buys in the valley.

    So Boxer has money problems.

    And, with Whitman’s Gubernatorial campaign putting Brown on the ropes, the Democratic Party Senate firewall in CA has just gone down.

  9. Turn out the lights in Ohio:

    http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/246773/quinnipiac-gops-kasich-leads-strickland-ohio-54-37

    Quinnipiac: GOP’s Kasich Leads Strickland in Ohio, 54-37
    September 16, 2010 7:57 A.M.
    By Jim Geraghty

    Tags: John Kasich, Ted Strickland

    Turn out the lights in Ohio? “Republican challenger John Kasich has a 54 – 37 percent lead over Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland in the race to be Ohio’s next chief state executive, with much of his lead due to overwhelming support among independent voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released today.”

    This sort of lead at the top in Ohio means you are going to see the Democrats lose almost every competitive House seat and the State Legislature too.