Sep 14 2010
DE Primary Results – O’Donnell Wins!
Final Update: Well we can add Christine O’Donnell to the list of outsiders taking on the GOP establishment. With 66% of the vote in she is leading with 55-45%, and I doubt she will lose. She will join a suite of excellent Tea Party candidates in NV, AK, CO, etc, If she loses the general election, there will be some explaining. But this is a clear sign there is a wave out there like no one has ever seen in living memory. Look out Dems – DE is more a sign of what is coming. Congrats to the O’Donnell campaign! (9 PM update, 78% in and O’Donnell leads 46-54%) Good night folks! – end update
So, will a little known, completely quirky, unsubstantiated paragon of conservative virtue (Christine O’Donnell) beat a center-right, well known, state-wide shoe-in Congressman (Mike Castle) for the GOP primary? I seriously doubt O’Donnell’s tarnished rep and completely unproven claims to be a Tea Party conservative will beat out the sure bet for a GOP pick up in Castle. We will know in 24 minutes as results start coming in. Be back then to start the live blogging.
Either way, this is not the end of the Tea Party (given all their excellent candidates now challenging for top rung seats). Nor is it the end of the establishment GOP. Hype seems to be the essence of the coverage for this race. So I think cooler minds will resolve the path forward. See at 8 PM EST for the first results and probably a not too late call.
Update 8:50 PM: Yep, O’Donnell looks like the surprise win of the night. 47% of the vote in and she still holds her 55-45%, which is a 2959 vote lead. If there are no large regions out there for Castle, it will be over not long after 9:00 PM.
Update 8:43 PM: OK, looks like O’Donnell may pull this out. With 37% reporting O’Donnell is holding her 55-45% lead. Her vote lead is 2290. When they hit 60% reporting is when I will call it.
Update 8:38 PM: DE results site is down. Lots of premature high fives at O’Donnell party, Will be back when results show up.
Update 8:30 PM: 14% in, and O’Donnell is strong so far. She leads 56-45, or 703 votes. 7459 cast. Still way too close to see a winner,but the fact O’Donnell is still ahead is good news for her. O’Donnell is winning the machine vote, but Castle is winning the Absentee (a fraction of the size).
Update 8:25 PM: All right. 8% of precincts in it has tightened immensely. O’Donnell leads now by 52%-48%, or 2186-1995 votes. That is on 191 vote differential.
Update 8:20 PM: Finally some results! 1% in O’Donnell has a small lead of 57-43%. But don’t get too excited, it is 136-101 votes. Expecting 20-40 thousand!
Update 7:45 PM: Hmm, not so good indicators for O’Donnell:
The word from a campaign source in Delaware: Mike Castle is seeing “good turnout in key areas.”
Large turn out means larger margin of win for Castle.
I saw Rove complaining last night and although I’ve always admired his intellect, he came across as a man who’d just had his pocket picked – and I think that’s exactly what happened. There’s some credible reports out on the web which says that he’s been a paid consultant for the Castle campaign for several months now – and that means that Rove is back up to all of the old gotta-pay-to-play kind of crap that got the Republicans in so much trouble the *last* time they had the majority. He talks a good game, but in the end it all comes down to how much money he gets to put in his own pockets. Ideology second, personal profit always comes first.
Gingrich has the same problem, so does just about every one of the GOP old guard – that’s why voters got so disgusted with them in the first place, and they STILL don’t get it! They see getting a majority as essential because it is going to be very personally profitable for them, and damn any voters who stand in between them and another dollar! It’s exactly THAT attitude that explains why the Senate Republicans did nothing but stuff themselves with pork the last time they were in power there, and I don’t see any signs that the Old Guard realizes why that is so destructive.
And Castle has now refused to endorse O’Donnell, even though he certainly would have expected her to endorse HIM if he’d run. This just confirms that he really was just another Jim Jeffords/Arlen Specter/Charlie Crist/Lincoln Chaffee, a man who will turn his back on republicans the instant it looks like his paycheck might stop. This alone confirms that Delaware voters made a good choice to dump him.
here’s another unnamed “senior republican aide” complaining about how much money Demint might have cost him:
http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/09/de_sen_odonnell.php
“DeMint took it a step too far here, and I think he has lost the remaining credibility he had, even within the caucus,” said the aide. “DeMint is not interested in a majority, he’d rather establish himself as the leader on the fringe.”
Oh, really? DeMint backed the winner, you backed the loser, champ. And DeMint stands tall for his principles, unlike the NRSC – and THAT is what is resonating with voters this year.
Regardless of what happens to O’Donnell in November, DeMint is going in as the defacto leader of (by my count) of 10 – 15 new, conservative Senate members. That means *nothing* is going to happen in the Senate without his input, and McConnell had better start treating him a whole lot better than he has in the past.
In Washington, Power IS Credibility. These whining aides and political hangers-on would be wise to wake up to that fact. If not, the Wave is going to wash them out to sea along with everyone else who tries to fight it.
With the win by O’Donnell, there is something going on that no one wants to admit. The Tea Party movement is huge, Sarah Palin is a major impact with the voters, and people don’t want the old guard if they voted against their wishes.
I was at a town hall meeting last summer here in NJ and most people were middle age and fed up with what Washington was doing (at that time – Healthcare) by a huge margin.
As I mentioned the other day, Castle may be a good person, but he voted wrong and people don’t want that anymore. Some may say that O’Donnell can’t win, however, I don’t think DE wants a Democrat Senator. So they will get behind O’Donnell and I think she will win.
As for Sarah Palin, when will DC and the media wake up and realize she has a lot of power with the average person. Look here and now look in New Hampshire – the candidate she supported is even with the tea party candidate. This is going to be a wild election season. People are out in force to defeat any candidate that supports Obama or voted for any of his programs. AND Sarah Palin will create a major change whoever she endorses.
What I take away from the O’Donnell race is that I really can make a difference, individuals can make a change, can think out of the box and make something happen. It will encourage every individual to do their part with gusto, especially those who only voted some of the time. If pundits are watching patterns, they will be wrong, because “tea partiers” are out of the box voters.
I think you nailed it Kathie – all of a sudden there is real hope!
bobsunshine,
Yes, Governor Palin has another Republican insider’s career carcass for the front hood of her pick up.
The Republican Senate candidate from South Carolina in the 2012 general election will the candidate running against Lindsey Graham that get’s Palin’s primary endorsement.
I am so disgusted wit the GOP establishment and Rove in particular!
He tried to get “permanent GOP majority” by the way of amnesty and overspending to the LBJ levels, and he, and the other country club repubics, gave US Reid, Obama and Pelosi instead.
No more, no mas!!!!!
We are in revolt and we are not taking this crap anymore.
We want the GOP to live by the Constitution and that’s it.
If they get in the power again and don’t do good for the people they will be finished as party in two election cycles.
Take this a final warning, GOP!!