Sep 21 2010
WI Senate About To Tip Towards GOP
It seems the GOP could actually pull off a Senate take over without the DE seat in play, now that a Daily KOS/PPP poll shows incumbent democrat Russ Feingold behind his GOP opponent by 11% and polling at a sure-to-lose 41% (beyond political death for any incumbent):
Ron Johnson (R) 52 (43)
Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 41 (45)An enormous enthusiasm gap, coupled with a Republican nominee fresh from a decisive primary win and unsullied by the primary process, has catapulted Republican nominee Ron Johnson to a double-digit advantage over incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold, according to PPP’s poll of the state on behalf of Daily Kos.
RCP still has this race a toss up only because a very stale July 12th poll with Feingold +2% is still in their equation. If you factor out this stale data, Johnson leads Feingold by an average of 9%, with his poll numbers around 51.5% and Feingold at 42.5%. That puts this race easily in the lean GOP category.
That would put the Senate at 48 Dems solid, likely or leans and 46 GOP solid, likely or leans – with 6 toss ups. RCP already factored DE into the likely Dem grouping, so the GOP is within striking distance. After WI I still expect to see CO and IL tilt over to the GOP side. That would tie up the two parties with 48 each, and leave CA, WA, WV and NV in the toss up group. The GOP should be able to snag both WV and NV. Which brings the senate back down to CA and WA. Everyone needs to be supporting Rossi in WA to make sure he pulls out the big win for the GOP, and CA will be the icing on the cake.
It is really something how many of these socalled safe seats are not so safe.
I have got to make a list – although it can only be reliable after November – of all of the big names that have been knocked out of the Senate from 2006 – 2010, a process which will continue in 2012.
I’m starting to realize that almost every big Name, the Names we have all known who have been running the Senate for the last 30 years – are Gone.
Some, like Byrd and Kennedy, to natural causes. Some, like Hillary and Biden, to a (short term) promotion. Some, like Voinovich and Bayh, to voluntary retirement. A whole lot on both sides to involuntary retirement. But overall, we’re in the middle of a turnover like hasn’t happened since 1974 – 1980, a period in which almost the entire Senate turned over.
It is going to be a whole new ballgame.
Someone suggested recently that Lieberman of CT (an independent who caucuses with the Dems) and/or Ben Nelson (D-NE – the guy who made the Senate ObamaCare passage possible and now regrets it) could end up switching parties. I don’t know how likely it is but it is an interesting speculation.
If I were the Republicans I am not so sure I’d take Nelson. Leiberman maybe, if fact probably, he is very liberal in most areas but is a true patriot and good American. Leave Nelson twisting in the wind.
I think this is interesting.
Obama rightly notes that he was handed a terrible economy. But now we learn that the recession he inherited was just five months away from being over when he took office. So while Obama doesn’t own the recession in any way, shape or form, he certainly owns the recovery, which is now well into its 15th month.
We would have been fine with TARP (TARP was a loan) and no trillion dollar stimulus.
[…] Senate Seat Tilts Toward GOP WI Senate About To Tip Towards GOP In New York, GOP’s Paladino Trails Cuomo By Only 6? Only 6?!? One New York House Seat, Looking […]
That same darned pattern of
1) Republican voters going ~9-to-1 for Republican candidates,
2) Independents going ~2-to-1 for Republican candidates, and
3) Democrats who dislike Obama spliting 50-50,
shows up in the polls again.