Sep 23 2010
Lincoln & O’Donnell
To put the DE Senate race is blunt perspective, Christine O’Donnell has about as much chance of winning her senate race as Blanche Lincoln has of winning hers. I am with Jay Cost here – focus our energies on WA, WV, CA and CT.
O’Donnell’s only hope now is that Castle will launch a write-in campaign. Seriously.
Amazing how for 6 years Blanche Lincoln never saw this coming. She really believed that voting for Obamacare was going to make her more popular.
Funny how Christine O’Donnell was 20 points behind Castle but emerged as the winner in the primary.
Even if she loses in November, that’s ok because her win in the primary shows that the voters are no longer interested in the moderates. Their vote for Christine over Castle is a message saying that we need to go back to the basics.
The question is…how do we go back to the basics if you are not willing to reform Social Security, Medicare, Department of Education, and so on? Reduce Defense? Reduce or eliminate all of NASA?
WWS, If Castle goes write in he will win – don’t kid yourself.
I’m with WWS on this one, except it is not her only hope.
1) If Castle would endorse her, campaign for her, share his political contacts and years of political goodwill, she would win easy.
2) If Castle goes the write in way, she has a chance because she seems to have a solid 30%. Now in almost all cases, 30% and smile doesn’t even get you a cup of coffee. But this being 2010 and the anti-DC movement, she may win with 35%; the extra 5% coming from the people disgusted that Castle is such a sore loser.
3) She can win in a shocker, although this being 2010, nothing is a shocker. The polls are now 35% Coons, 30% O’Donnell and 35% who knows. Now no pollster in their right mind is going to publish a 35% undecided number on Sept 23rd. So you get the 55-40 polls which are reasonable, but misleading. The 35% undecided number is why Castle is looking to go write-in. That is a large number for him to get. O’Donnell’s biggest problem is this: is so and so qualified to be Senator, Coons – 60%, O’Donnell 30%. If that changes then the pollster will be shocked.
The polls here DO NOT RELATE to Lincoln. The pros should know this and they are not trying. Why? it finally dawned on me, Rove does not know how to win a race for a client like O’Donnell. The polls for this race are scrambled. One, O’Donnell does not poll well because she was not expected to win and two, Loony Goon Coons is a sacraficial lamb who was not expected to win the general.
AJ: One reason your predictions are almost never right is because you know nothing of electoral politics, except you have a sharp mind and can do exceptional analysis. But politics is all about people and feelings, meeting with voters, going door to door. Like the Yes on Prop 8 people did in 2008. The canvas person they sent around was soooooo green that I took her around our neighberhood to show her who everyone was and where they stood.
So lay off O’Donnell. Chrissy Matthews may be right, she could win. One more thing, Castle can win a write in campaign, very difficult but at least I can spell Castle. Murkwodcsky, whatever.
http://hotair.com/archives/2010/09/23/doubling-down-on-odonnell/ – Doubling Down on O’Donnell.
The other Tea Party / GOP candidates are catching up or gaining a lead.
Time may be against O’Donnell but if the Delaware voters look at Coons very closely, they just might decide to vote against Coons.
55 – 39 percent is still troubling…
Remember that O’Donnell now has $2 million to use in the campaign (with more coming in from all over) – Coons will not have an easy time of it. The biggest mistake the Dems made was to elevate her to the national stage by mounting personal attacks on her publicly.
O’Donnell’s challenge now (as it has been all along) is to make her case of lower taxes and limited government to the voters of Delaware. Contrast this with Coons’ support for Obama’s agenda and let the voters decide. Delaware is a small state, so she has the time to visit nearly every small, medium, and large city several times before the election.
AJ, I very much agree with MarkN on this particular point — lay off O’Donnell!
You (and all others who have given this woman such short shrift) appear to be embarrassingly blind to her particular prospects. Had Karl Rove come out in strong support for her candidacy, as he should have, she’d be staring at greater parity right now. If he felt he couldn’t do that, he should have shut his trap until after the election and the votes were in.
As for that 60/30 number on whether she’s qualified for Senate; those numbers can be significantly moved in her favor *and* (just as important) Coon’s numbers can be moved downward.
Finally, the strong-armed doubt that has been visited upon her should have been, instead, dropped on Castle in an effort to prevent his contemplation of a write-in candidacy.
AJ, why is it so hard to support this woman???
LOL! RattleGator – don’t presume to come into my place and tell me what to think or write. O’Donnell is not worth my morals or values.
If you are willing to troll the bottom for any candidate who spews the proper catch phrases, knock yourself out.
Why can’t I support someone who lies on financial reporting forms and misuses public money for personal gain?
You’re kidding right?
Gator, I have been holding back, but I think Castle should do a write in – because I think he would win and while not conservative enough in his voting for my taste, he is miles ahead in honor and integrity. Thanks for reminding me what is more important – votes or values. I go with values.
“Why cant I support someone who lies on financial reporting forms and misuses public money for personal gain?”
Hi AJ. Do you have links to objective news reports on these two issues? I would like to know the facts here. Thanks.
Yes, all you need to do is look at this CNN report which is quite fair – you can read the entries yourself. And then all you have to do is realize she ADMITTED in Hannity she was in trouble with her mortgage – as if that is all the excuse required to falsify records and misuse funds.
Sorry, but as I have said before, this lowering of standards is how the clowns in DC get away with it all the time.
It ends now. The Tea Party cannot allow itself to be tainted with Politics as usual
Thanks AJ. I’ve said previously that she would need to forcefully account for her past mistakes and try to put them behind her. If she continues to dodge these issues, her campaign will fail, which is too bad, especially for her tea party supporters who thought they could change Washington by electing her. I do note, however, that her campaign website has some point-by-point rebuttals to some of these issues:
http://christine2010.com/christine-counters/
Perhaps you could comment on these, AJ.
In the end, Delaware will likely end up getting a “Harry Reid light” in Coons, or Castle goes Indy and gets elected (and caucuses with the Dems).
We live in interesting political times. There is also some debate about whether a Castle write in helps O’Donnell more than hurts her.
Delaware Source: 50-50 Chance for Mike Castle Write-In Bid
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/247692/delaware-source-50-50-chance-mike-castle-write-bid
excerpt:
I am hearing from a credible source that Castle’s odds of mounting a write-in campaign are as high as 50-50. They believe they can win, and lots of anecdotal evidence that I can share tells me this: most independents and even many Democrats are very unhappy with the choice between O’Donnell and Coons. People are telling me:
O’Donnell is awful on personal character but right on the public policy issues.
Coons has outstanding character who will be a rubber stamp for Obama-Biden.
I would surmise that key operatives in Republican circles would give Castle a wink and a nod: either Castle wins or O’Donnell wins in a three-way; O’Donnell cannot win in a two-way – so a write-in is worth a roll of the dice. Castle’s team plans to run him as a moderate and then promise to caucus with the GOP to reassure some of the Republican base.
“As for that 60/30 number on whether she’s qualified for Senate”
Isn’t that a matter of opinion? For anyone that wants her instead of someone else, they obviously think she is the better qualified. Look, the country just elected a guy president that was an unsuccessful community organizer. But, I guess plenty of people ‘thought’ he was qualified.
I certainly can’t agree that an admitted Marxist is ‘qualified’ or a ‘good’ candidate for any public office in the USA, but then that is for the voters to decide.
So, she ‘lied’ about some financial records…. is that worse than all those lies we get from the president?
I’m not sure lying is a disqualifier, tho it should be, but there is no alternative. I know of no publicly elected person that I believe is truthful.
I believe O’Donnell is clearly head and shoulders above her opposition and I think she should go ahead and order the drapes for her senate office.
I’m not fully convinced yet about O’Donnell. She really needs to get out there and tackle these “distractions” head on. I’m not sure she’s done that yet. She can surely admit her past mistakes and pledge to do the right thing in the future. But not addressing the issues will do nothing but provide fodder for opposition campaign commercials. And if there are errors in the public record about her past, she should set the record straight.
Having said all this, can we really hold anybody accountable for their personal foibles when we have someone like Al Franken in the Senate? (And we can include the GOP examples of John Ensign and David Vitter too). Personally, I feel the persons we send to Washington should exhibit the highest moral and ethical standards in their lives (though like all of us, they may have had some flaws in their past that they’ve learned from) given the trust we are placing in them to run our country.
“Personally, I feel the persons we send to Washington should exhibit the highest moral and ethical standards in their lives (though like all of us, they may have had some flaws in their past that they’ve learned from) given the trust we are placing in them to run our country.”
While it would be nice if we could get people with high moral and ethical standards to represent us in Washington, I think anyone that actually thinks we are getting those standards would be sorely disillusioned if they really knew the truth. Yes, many are good in many ways, but when it gets right down to doing the ‘right thing’ or saving their ‘political butt’, you know which way they’re gonna swing.
Sarah Palin is still endorsing O’Donnell and I’m certainly an admirer of her’s. Castle is Obama ‘light’ and we don’t need the regular or light versions. I feel as though, while we should expect perfection in our elected representatives, we will always have to settle for the lesser of the evils that we encounter. O’Donnell certainly appears to be superior in most ways. I’m certainly willing to take that chance.
Mike Castle will test waters with poll
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42649.html
Mike Castle can win it — for Christine O’Donnell
http://dailycaller.com/2010/09/24/mike-castle-can-win-it-for-christine-odonnell/
AJ, what an odd response.
Your blog is one of my favorite spots and I must say, I’m puzzled. First, I thought I seconded an opinion already posted in the comments — correct? Yet you jump on me like a bulldog. Second, I thought I gave an opinion and asked a question — surely that’s what comments are for, correct? Yet you write as if you’re offended.
You’re getting far too sensitive on this particular issue; embarrassingly blinded seems on point once again.
Rattle,
I am offended, that anyone would suggest I sell my values for an unknown candidate who admitted lying on government forms. You want to, be my guest. You want to say why YOU are willing to, be my guest.
Don’t tell me what to think or write. That I cannot stand. I give you a voice here, don’t try and restrict mine.